Showing posts with label Strait of Hormuz. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Strait of Hormuz. Show all posts

06 August 2026

President Trump Can't Legally Surrender Strait of Hormuz Freedom of International Law of the Sea

President Trump is said to be negotiating with Iran about the Persian Gulf and International Law of the Sea. Iran and Oman are colluding to control the Strait and impose taxes/fees on ships passing. President Trump cannot agree with any part of that any more than he could agree with Britain, Spain or Morocco to tax/charge fees on all ships passing the Strait of Gibralter.

Plainly Oman will need to be administered by a regional, international body in the future- perhaps Saudi Arabia, the United States, Israel, Kuwait and the U.A.E. to assure the Strait of Hormuz remains free. Omanis could continue to regulate their own affairs except for those concerning international shipping. It may become necessary for Iran as well to permanently lose territory on the Strait of Hormuz for coalition security forces. A 99 year mission with territorial sovereignty should be given to the Strait of Hormuz Defense Governance Coalition.

Iran is obviously counting on the U.S. record playbook of leaving conflicts eventually that they do not win- from Vietnam to Afghanistan U.S. leadership tends to leave or look for quicky deals on bad terms if the opposition force resists long enough. The Strait of Hormuz should be different though. Even if oil flows stop through that waterway five or ten years the Law of the Sea should be defended globally.

I interacted with AI discussing various relevant issue concerning the Oran war.

Gary- Aren’t Iranian attacks on Persian Gulf travelling oil tankers comparable to the piracy of Somalia?

A.I.-While political figures have compared Iran’s state-backed maritime obstructions to Somali piracy, the actions differ fundamentally. Somali piracy is criminal and decentralized, driven by financial ransoms. Iranian tanker seizures are state-directed geopolitical actions carried out by military forces in uniform, resembling state-level coercion or reprisal rather than traditional piracy. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]

Nature of the Actors

  • Somali Pirates: Independent criminal gangs and local militias operating without state backing.

  • Iran: Regular military and paramilitary forces, like the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), acting under official government policy. [6, 7]

Core Motivations

  • Somali Piracy: Extortion of private commercial companies for multimillion-dollar cash ransoms.

  • Iran Actions: Retaliation for international sanctions, geopolitical leverage, or seizing cargo in response to legal disputes involving detained Iranian ships. [2, 3]

Legal and Diplomatic Classifications

  • Piracy: Defined under international law (UNCLOS) as private acts of violence or detention committed for private ends.

  • State Seizure: Sovereign actions or boardings conducted by a recognized government, governed by the laws of state responsibility and armed conflict rather than maritime criminal law. [8, 9]

Would you like to explore how international maritime law differentiates state actions from criminal piracy, or look into recent security developments in the Strait of Hormuz?

[1] https://www.youtube.com

[2] https://thehill.com

[3] https://www.facebook.com

[4] https://www.facebook.com

[5] https://news.sbs.co.kr

[6] https://www.aljazeera.com

[7] https://www.aol.com

[8] https://www.grin.com

[9] https://www.mol-service.com

Gary-  It's a rather interesting opportunity to compare state terrorism to private terrorism, individual terrorism, or organized crime brought to a state level. And to compare that with organized crime by non-state actors. I think that one could compare reasonably organized crime in the Gaza Strip and organized crime in Yemen and organized crime in Iran with general all-purpose terrorism. Besides, one might even go to the point and say that attacking oil tankers anywhere in the world is terrorism and piracy.

AI- Comparing state-level coercion to non-state organized crime and terrorism highlights a central debate in modern international relations, where academic definitions often clash with public perceptions. Legal frameworks and political analysts categorize these actions based on who commits them, why they do it, and what laws apply.

Definitions and Categories

  • State Actions (Iran, Yemen's Houthis):

    • Iran operates through official military branches like the IRGC to enforce geopolitical leverage.

    • Yemen's Houthi movement, while acting as a de facto government in parts of Yemen, functions as a heavily armed militant group backed by a state sponsor (Iran).

    • These actions are typically classified as state-sponsored terrorism, asymmetric warfare, or violations of state responsibility under international law. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]

  • Non-State De Facto Control (Gaza Strip):

    • Groups operating in Gaza have historically combined governance with militant operations.

    • When such groups target civilian infrastructure or commercial shipping, international bodies and sovereign states classify these actions as terrorism rather than localized organized crime due to their political and ideological goals.

  • Non-State Private Actors (Somali Pirates):

    • Classic organized crime networks operate strictly outside the framework of any state or political ideology.

    • Their actions are defined under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) as piracy because they are committed for "private ends" (financial profit). [1, 2]

Overlapping Tactics vs. Different Objectives

Feature

State-Level Coercion (e.g., Iran)

State-Backed Militancy (e.g., Houthis)

Private Organized Crime (e.g., Somalia)

Primary Actor

Uniformed military / State institutions

De facto authorities / Insurgent groups

Criminal syndicates / Local militias

Main Objective

Geopolitical leverage, sanctions relief, deterrence [1, 2]

Ideological warfare, regional disruption

Financial gain via ransom and extortion

Legal Regime

Laws of Armed Conflict / State Responsibility

Counter-terrorism frameworks / Sanctions

Domestic criminal law / Maritime piracy law

Command Structure

Centralized national command

Decentralized but state-coordinated

Fluid, clan-based criminal networks

The "Global Terrorism" vs. Piracy Argument

The argument that attacking oil tankers is inherently "terrorism and piracy" regardless of who does it aligns with a philosophical view of global security, but faces specific legal boundaries:

  • The Hostis Humani Generis Principle: Historically, pirates were declared hostis humani generis (enemies of all mankind), allowing any nation to capture and try them. [1, 2, 3]

  • The Political Boundary: When a sovereign state or a politically motivated group attacks a ship, international law shifts the response from a criminal law enforcement matter to a geopolitical or military conflict. Nations respond with naval escorts, economic sanctions, or military strikes rather than police arrests.

If you would like to look deeper into this, we can examine how international courts handle state-sponsored maritime property destruction, or look at the financial networks that fund these different groups. [1]

Gary-  I believe it might be useful to compare taxation without representation to legal jurisprudence without representation as well as consider extortion circumstances like regular organized crime- extortion perhaps the five families in New York of of the 60s with that of extortion by Iran over the Strait of Hormuz and shipping to extort money from shippers going through an international waterway.

AI- Comparing historical organized crime extortion to the state actions of Iran in the Strait of Hormuz highlights how similar tactics—restricting access, demanding compliance, and threatening force—serve entirely different strategic goals. The concept of "jurisprudence without representation" further mirrors this dynamic, describing systems where rules are imposed on actors who have no voice in making them.

Extortion: New York's Five Families vs. Iran

While both systems rely on the implicit or explicit threat of violence to extract value, their structure, mechanisms, and goals diverge significantly.

  • The Mafia (Private Extortion):

    • The Mechanism: The Five Families used the "protection racket." Businesses paid a tax to avoid property damage or physical harm from the Mafia itself, or to operate in a specific territory.

    • The Goal: Purely financial. The revenue directly enriched individuals and sustained a hidden, illegal corporate structure operating entirely outside the law.

    • The Scope: Localized and parasitic, relying on the quiet complicity or fear of local businesses and corrupt officials.

  • Iran (State-Level Coercion):

    • The Mechanism: Iran utilizes its geographic positioning over the Strait of Hormuz—a vital global choke point—to board, detain, or harass commercial vessels.

    • The Goal: Geopolitical leverage rather than direct financial profit. These actions are typically executed to force the release of seized Iranian oil tankers abroad, pressure Western nations for sanctions relief, or signal deterrence during diplomatic standoffs.

    • The Scope: International and sovereign. The actions are carried out openly by uniformed state militaries (the IRGC) operating under national strategic policies. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]

Jurisprudence Without Representation

Your phrase "jurisprudence without representation" provides a strong framework for understanding the friction in both scenarios. It describes a legal or regulatory system imposed on a population or group that has no political input or voting power within that system.

  • In Organized Crime: The Mafia establishes its own unwritten legal code (Omertà, territorial boundaries, dispute tribunals). Legitimate business owners subjected to their extortion must follow these rules but have zero representation or recourse within the criminal hierarchy.

  • In International Maritime Channels: This friction occurs when a coastal state imposes strict, non-standard domestic laws or aggressive military oversight on international shipping lanes. Commercial vessels flying foreign flags must navigate these rules to avoid seizure, yet the global shipping industry and foreign citizens have no political representation or legislative say within the governing state’s legal structure.

If you want to explore this comparison further, we can look at how international transit rights under UNCLOS try to prevent local overreach, or analyze the historical economics of protection rackets compared to the economic fallout of modern maritime security crises.

Gary-  Is it even possible for President Trump to negotiate Law of the Sea of the Persian Gulf with Iran in a way that would concede any law of the sea freedom- impinging international shipping?

AI- President Trump cannot legally alter global freedom of navigation via a bilateral deal with Iran, but his administration could make political concessions that fundamentally compromise international shipping access. Because both the United States and Iran are notably non-parties to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the current diplomatic standoff over the ongoing 2026 war hinges on customary international law versus raw military leverage. [1, 2, 3]

1. The Legal Reality: No Bilateral Power to Change Global Law

  • No Third-Party Binding: A pact between the U.S. and Iran cannot legally rewrite international maritime law for other sovereign nations. Legal experts note that a bilateral agreement modifying transit rights would not bind third states like European or Asian trading partners. [2]

  • The Role of Oman: The southern half of the Strait of Hormuz belongs to Oman's territorial waters. Unlike the U.S. and Iran, Oman is an UNCLOS party bound by international "transit passage" rules. Any arrangement attempting to restrict freedom of travel would face direct conflict with Oman’s obligations. [1, 2, 4, 5, 6]

2. The Geopolitical Friction: De Facto Concessions vs. Law

While President Trump cannot change the law itself, critics and legal scholars warn that a negotiated "compromise" to end the conflict could establish dangerous precedents. Recent draft proposals in negotiation reveal the precise mechanisms of this friction: [2, 7, 8, 9]

  • The Routing Demands: Iran is currently pushing for a framework where ships must enter the Persian Gulf via an Iranian-controlled route. This is being compared to a "visa system" requiring transit permissions, which directly curtails the concept of unimpeded international transit. [9, 10, 11]

  • Transit Fees: Tehran has demanded the right to charge service fees for "security and environmental preservation". Legal scholars argue that paying a state to guarantee safe passage through an international waterway is effectively a formalized protection racket or extortion dressed up as local regulation. [2, 9, 12, 13]

  • The Trump Administration Position: While Trump has publicly dismissed Iran's toll concepts by boasting of absolute U.S. naval dominance, the pressure to stabilize global oil markets and conclude an unpopular war ahead of domestic elections has kept a negotiated solution on the table. [8, 9, 14]

3. Why This Matters for Global Shipping

If the Trump administration yields to a compromise that permits Iranian oversight or transit notifications, it would signal a major departure from decades of U.S. foreign policy. Even if framed as a temporary ceasefire arrangement, allowing a coastal state to selectively manage or condition passage through a global chokepoint risks fragmenting the international rules-based order. [2, 7, 8, 15, 16]

[1] https://www.unclosdebate.org

[2] https://www.arabnews.com

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org

[4] https://thehill.com

[5] https://www.thedailystar.net

[6] https://www.lawfaremedia.org

[7] https://www.facebook.com

[8] https://www.wcnc.com

[9] https://www.wusa9.com

[10] https://www.facebook.com

[11] https://www.techtimes.com

[12] https://www.jpost.com

[13] https://themedialine.org

[14] https://www.youtube.com

[15] https://www.pbs.org

[16] https://theintercept.com

Gary- Realistically, President Trump can only negotiate Iranian surrender of nuclear weapons development/ nuclear program that can lead to nuclear weapons- and not the freedom of international shipping of the Persian Gulf or anywhere else?

AI- Realistically, President Trump can—and currently is—negotiating both issues, but they are deliberately split into two separate phases. Under the administration's two-step framework for ending the war, maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz is the immediate priority, while denuclearization is the secondary, long-term goal. [1, 2]

The Two-Phase Negotiation Strategy

The White House has separated the crisis into distinct diplomatic tracks to break the stalemate:

  1. Phase 1: The Maritime Deal (Current Focus): Trump explicitly stated that the first phase focuses on reopening the Strait of Hormuz to normalize global commerce. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that this short-term track aims to restore the "freedom of movement" for oil tankers and commercial ships. [2, 3, 4, 5]

  2. Phase 2: The Nuclear Deal (Long-Term Goal): Trump noted that "the second phase will be the denuclearization," emphasizing that the broader geopolitical settlement will require Iran to permanently forfeit any path to a nuclear weapon. [2]

The Core Conflict: What is Being Conceded?

While Trump is negotiating shipping rights, the critical debate is whether the U.S. will hold its red line or concede traditional maritime freedoms to secure a ceasefire: [6, 7, 8]

  • The U.S. Red Line: The administration maintains that it wants total freedom of navigation with zero Iranian tolls, lane control, or transit permissions. Trump has publicly rejected Iran's demands to charge service fees, stating, "I'm not going to let them charge." [1, 9, 10]

  • The Looming Compromise: Despite the tough rhetoric, current draft proposals mediated through Oman reveal that Iran is pushing for structural control over inbound shipping routes. Critics warn that if the U.S. accepts a temporary fix to lower global gas prices, it could inadvertently de facto legalize the very restrictions on shipping freedoms the U.S. military has historically fought to prevent. [6, 11, 12, 13]

[1] https://www.aljazeera.com

[2] https://www.iranintl.com

[3] https://www.cnbc.com

[4] https://www.youtube.com

[5] https://www.youtube.com

[6] https://www.nbcnews.com

[7] https://www.abc.net.au

[8] https://takshashila.org.in

[9] https://fortune.com

[10] https://www.aljazeera.com

[11] https://www.cnbc.com

[12] https://www.wdsu.com

[13] https://www.fdd.org

Gary- In a sense President Trump has his negotiating priorities backwards; his first priority and his only legitimate priority is that of the nuclear weapons issue while the Persian Gulf issue is simply a matter of the United States will blast you around to the Stone Age if they keep trying to extort Persian Gulf shippers with military attacks?

AIThe argument that President Trump has his priorities backwards highlights a major split between traditional military deterrence and pragmatic economic diplomacy. Many security analysts agree with your perspective, arguing that treating freedom of navigation as a negotiable item—rather than an absolute red line enforced by military dominance—weakens global stability. [1]

Evaluating the two competing strategic views reveals why this prioritization is so heavily debated. [2]

The Argument for Your View: "Deterrence First, Denuclearization Only"

This perspective argues that freedom of navigation is non-negotiable and should be enforced strictly through military power, not diplomatic compromise. [3]

  • Absolute Maritime Freedom: Historically, the U.S. position has been that international waterways are open by right, not by permission. Under this view, negotiating shipping lanes or notifications with Iran concedes that Iran has a right to dictate terms, effectively legitimizing their extortion tactics. [4]

  • The "Stone Age" Deterrence: Proponents of this view argue that the U.S. Navy possesses the overwhelming firepower required to destroy the IRGC's naval capabilities, clear mines, and escort tankers unilaterally. Using military force to secure the Gulf would send a clear signal that maritime extortion will not be tolerated. [5]

  • The Existential Threat: This logic dictates that the only issue requiring deep diplomatic negotiation is the nuclear program, as a nuclear-armed Iran presents a permanent, existential shift in global power that conventional military strikes cannot easily permanently erase. [6]

The Administration's Counter-View: "Economic Urgency First"

The Trump administration’s decision to prioritize a maritime ceasefire stems from immediate domestic and global economic pressures rather than long-term legal philosophy.

  • Immediate Inflation and Energy Shock: Ongoing military conflicts in the Gulf disrupt global oil supplies, spiking inflation and energy costs. For an administration highly focused on domestic economic metrics and gas prices, stabilizing the markets immediately is treated as a political necessity that cannot wait for a lengthy nuclear negotiation. [7, 8, 9, 10, 11]

  • Avoiding a Wider Regional War: While a massive U.S. military campaign could crush Iran's conventional navy, it risks triggering a massive, unpredictable regional war. Iran can deploy asymmetric warfare, including ballistic missile strikes on regional oil infrastructure (like Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq) and drone attacks on U.S. bases, which could inflict severe damage on the global economy. [12, 13, 14, 15, 16]

  • Using Leverage Sequentially: The administration's tactical gamble is that stopping the immediate fighting in the Gulf lowers the temperature and establishes a diplomatic channel, which can then be leveraged into a stricter "maximum pressure" negotiation over the nuclear program later. [17]

Ultimately, the friction in Trump's strategy is the classic dilemma of short-term stabilization versus long-term deterrence. By putting the maritime issue on the negotiating table to secure a quick economic win, the administration risks signaling that global shipping rights can be bartered, which critics worry could invite further extortion from hostile states down the road. [18]

If you would like to examine this further, we can look at how past U.S. naval operations (like Operation Earnest Will in the 1980s) used direct military force to secure the Gulf, or analyze the current economic impact of the shipping disruptions on global trade. [19, 20]


[1] https://www.automotivelogistics.media

[2] https://www.scielo.br

[3] https://www.cnn.com

[4] https://www.instagram.com

[5] https://www.npr.org

[6] https://www.wsj.com

[7] https://www.latrobe.edu.au

[8] https://www.reuters.com

[9] https://www.moomoo.com

[10] https://blogs.timesofisrael.com

[11] https://www.i24news.tv

[12] https://news.bgov.com

[13] https://www.facebook.com

[14] https://www.facebook.com

[15] https://www.tasnimnews.ir

[16] https://www.facebook.com

[17] https://thebaffler.com

[18] https://iveybusinessjournal.com

[19] https://www.washingtoninstitute.org

[20] https://www.instagram.com






 

27 April 2026

Recovering the Strait of Hormuz from the Protection Racket of Iran and Oman

 Iran and Oman want to jointly control the Strait of Hormuz as if they own it, or made it, and it was not created by God. That is a criminal expropriation and won’t be allowed to stand. Every strategic choke point on Earth could be claimed by proximal nations of international maritime law is allowed to be disregarded.

The United States and Russia could begin to charge tolls for Bering Strait passages, and Russia would claim exclusive control of the N.E. passage and Canada the Northwest jointly with the U.S.A. Greenland and Canada would jointly claim the entrance to Baffin Bay. Iran's claim over the Strait of Hormuz and desire to continue enriching uranium are not acceptable for global security. The mystery is why President Trump has deferred law enforcement so long as he has.

Plainly new interdiction technologies to keep the Strait of Hormuz free of pirates and protection rackets with fast boats or mines should follow whatever terminal military action against the Iran regime occurs. There are so many inventors of cheap weapons these days with asymmetric financial value. Perhaps saturation of the Strait of Hormuz with hyper-modern low profile autonomous versions of the civil war ship U.S.N. Monitor with kinetic and rocket capabilities could provide some ship escort services as part of a constellation of low cost sentries.

U.S.N. Monitor 1862


09 April 2026

Europe Chooses Iran's Felony Edge Over Strait of Hormuz Instead of Rule of Law

Iran’s selective closure of the Strait of Hormuz—allowing passage only to nations that pay a tribute of $2 million per ship and/or are allies or not regarded as supporters of the United States’ and Israel’s war on Iran—is testing the willingness of the world’s nations to enforce international maritime law. So far, except for a few nations including Israel, the United States, and a few Persian Gulf allies, no one seems interested in enforcing it.

It is illegal under international law for any party to stop civilian ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz. With Iran on one shore and Oman on the other, Iran holds a clear geographic advantage. Oman tries to remain neutral out of fear of Iranian invasion, as Iranian positions are just 30 miles away. Since Oman would be the natural, logical location for gun emplacements (think The Guns of Navarone) to keep the strait open for non-Iranian vessels—by threatening to blast Iranian positions with modern artillery—it will be challenging for Oman to stay truly neutral. Perhaps Saudi Arabia will eventually buy Oman.

European unwillingness to enforce gross violations of international maritime law is an indicator of their preference to pay tribute to—or cooperate with—Iran rather than enforce laws as a matter of principle. Europe is like the merchant that pays protection money instead of funding law enforcement. Europe’s choice is like the “defund the police” movement in the United States. They feel safer by paying tribute to nations able to control key global waterways rather than fighting to keep them free. The United States could have let Germany win the First and Second World Wars and Communist China take South Korea by remaining neutral, if it had wanted to follow Europe’s example. Europe may tolerate Chilean gun emplacements to control the Strait of Magellan, Moroccan artillery and mines to control entry to the Mediterranean Sea, New Guinean control of the Torres Strait with help from China, Indonesian tolls on the Strait of Malacca, and joint U.S.-Russia and Canadian control of the Northwest and Northeast Passages as Arctic ice continues to melt. Europe has shown callous disregard for U.S. and Israeli security and believes the United States should have allowed Iran to develop nuclear weapons and missiles to attack Israel and the United States.

It does seem that the world is largely choosing to ignore international law when it is convenient to do so. The issue of war does not entitle a nation to unilaterally stop free passage of shipping through international waterways by force, except perhaps against opposing force vessels. Here are the reasons why Iran’s practices of mining the Strait, charging a toll, and attacking neutral civilian shipping are illegal. Europe’s preference to attack or seize Russian vessels or ships of other nations carrying Russian oil to market is consistent with the principle of rule of force, piracy, and fealty to perpetrators.

Gemini-"Blocking international waterways like the Strait of Hormuz is illegal under international law, specifically the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), because they are recognized as essential straits used for international navigation. Under international law, such straits are governed by a "right of transit passage," which guarantees that ships of all countries have the right to freely navigate through them, meaning coastal states (like Iran and Oman) cannot legally close or suspend this passage.

Key Reasons for Illegality:
UNCLOS Articles 37-44: These articles dictate that all ships and aircraft have the right of transit passage through straits used for international navigation.
The Law of the Sea: While territorial waters extend into the Strait, the right of passage cannot be suspended for innocent transit, and blockades are not permitted in international straits.
Economic Impact: The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global artery, with roughly 20% of the world's oil consumption passing through it, making its blockage a violation of international economic stability.
Prohibition on Threats: International law prohibits the use of force or threats to block or harass commercial ships navigating these crucial waters.

While bordering countries like Iran can regulate navigation for safety or act against threats within their waters, they are restricted by this international legal framework from closing the strait to international traffic."

As of April 2026, Iran is restricting the Strait of Hormuz by forcing ships into a "tollbooth" system, demanding passage fees, conducting vessel inspections, and creating navigational risks with alleged mine laying. These actions violate international law, specifically the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) article on freedom of navigation and transit passage, by disrupting the movement of roughly 20% of the world's oil. 

Actions Violating International Law 

  • Imposing Illegal Tolls: Iran is demanding payment for passage through the strait, which experts state violates maritime law and customary freedom of navigation.
  • Forced Rerouting and Inspection: Iran has established a "tollbooth" system, forcing vessels, particularly those departing from the middle of the strait, to deviate to its Larak Island for inspection and extortionate, forced "service" charges.
  • Laying Sea Mines/Attacks: Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have been reported to be laying mines and attacking commercial vessels, creating an insecure environment and restricting transit.
  • Limiting Daily Transit: Under a self-imposed "ceasefire" arrangement, Iran has restricted the number of vessels permitted to pass through the waterway daily. 

Legal Violations Explained

  • Freedom of Navigation: The actions violate the principle of "transit passage" and "innocent passage" for ships that do not threaten coastal states, as established by UNCLOS.
  • Right to Transit: While Iran has not ratified all parts of UNCLOS, it is bound by customary international law regarding the right of innocent passage.
  • Military Action: Striking commercial ships and restricting civilian traffic is illegal, as international law limits a nation's right to defend itself to military targets. 

These actions, taken in response to the war with the US and Israel, have created significant global economic disruption and blocked critical supply routes

 

08 April 2026

Preponderantly, Western Europe Doesn't Support of Defend Rule of Law Over Strait of Hormuz

 Western European nations don’t support the rule of law over international waters. The Strait of Hormuz is an international strait and it is illegal to force ships to pay protection money to pass it. Western European nations; especially France, are willing to pay tribute to Iran to let their ships pass, rather than to make the least effort to defend the rule of law that would also be convenient for them in this case.

Iran's ten point 'peace plan' is loaded with criminal propositions that make it implicitly void. It is interesting that the media and governments seem to be ignoring the illegality of Iran's document. Illegal contracts are invalid. Iran can't charge tolls over international waters.

Gemini summarized the rule of law paradigm for the Strait of Hormuz…

Gary-Isn’t the strait of hormuz supposed to be free to transit according to international maritime law?

Gemini-Yes, under international maritime law, the 

Strait of Hormuz is considered an “international strait” that should be free for transit passage. However, this legal status is currently at the center of a major geopolitical dispute involving differing interpretations of the law. 

1. The Right of Transit Passage (UNCLOS)

The primary framework is the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which established the Transit Passage regime. 

  • Non-Suspendable: Unlike “innocent passage” in other territorial waters, transit passage through international straits cannot be suspended by coastal states, even during armed conflict.
  • Unimpeded Access: All ships and aircraft enjoy the right to continuous and expeditious passage without needing prior permission.
  • Prohibition of Tolls: Article 26 of UNCLOS explicitly prohibits states from charging fees for mere passage. 

2. Iran’s Legal Counter-Argument

Iran’s position challenges this global consensus based on its specific treaty status: 

  • Non-Ratification: Iran signed UNCLOS in 1982 but never ratified it. Tehran argues that transit passage is a “quid pro quo” for treaty members only and does not apply to non-parties.
  • Innocent Passage vs. Transit Passage: Iran maintains that only the more restrictive Innocent Passage regime applies. This would legally allow them to:
    • Require prior authorization for warships and submarines.
    • Temporarily suspend passage for national security reasons.
  • Wartime Justifications: Recently, Iranian officials have argued that ongoing hostilities (the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis) allow for “wartime rules” that supersede peacetime treaties. 

3. Current 2026 Crisis Developments

As of April 2026, Iran has taken several steps that most legal experts from organizations like Just Security and TRT World view as violations of international law:

  • Selective Passage: Iran has reportedly blocked ships linked to the U.S., Israel, and their allies while allowing “friendly” nations like China and Russia to pass.
  • Transit Tolls: Reports indicate Iran is drafting legislation to charge tolls (reportedly up to $2 million per transit) for “maritime security” services.
  • Naval Mining: Allegations of naval mining have surfaced; while not strictly illegal in war, mining an international strait in a way that blocks neutral shipping is widely considered a violation of the San Remo Manual and Hague Convention

07 April 2026

Fact or Hyperbole- Considering Iranian 'War Crimes' and 'The End of a Civilization' Tonight

 President Trump has said that he will wipe out a civilization tonight by bombing power plants and bridges in Iran unless they accept a peace proposal and open the Strait of Hormuz to everyone. Democrats are claiming Trump is planning a war crime. Pres Trump says the Iranian 'civilization' will never rise again.

That is good news for those worried about the Achaemenid,  Parthian, and Sasanian Empires.

Bridges and power plants are of military value. Eisenhower built the interstates for defense reasons to move military vehicles around quickly. Iran's military-industrial complex needs power to produce weapons and light bulbs to see maps at night. The next generation of Iranians may use more solar panels. Toynbee said there is just one world civilization now- so one isn't going to be destroyed-hyperbole as usual.

A cease-fire was finally struck late in the day before the bombing reached its apex. There is a two week cessation of hostilities in order to allow a stronger agreement to be found. If President Trump does decide to renew the engagement two weeks from today, it would be good if he would spare the Mount Sabalan geothermal plant not too far from Tabriz. It only opened in December 2025 and is an example of sustainable energy that will outlast the fossil fuel area and a good example for people relying on fossil fuels for heating and transportation; there are alternative energy sources.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahand






03 April 2026

Defense Parameters for the Strait of Hormuz from Oman's South Shore High Ground

 Gary-This is a directed A.I. analysis of select parameters for defending the Strait of Hormuz from Iranian attacks. The Zagros mountains on the Iranian side are up to 4000 meters high and as much as 350 km wide. If Marines land on the Iranian (north) shore they would be at a disadvantaged downhill position. Oman however has an excellent position on the south side of the Strait reaching as high as 2000 meters. From that location indirect fire weapons could cover the Strait while drones monitor and search for Iranian arty position on the north side of the Strait that have coverage of the Strait.

Gemini- The Zagros Mountains near the Strait of Hormuz represent a massive, complex barrier that defines the region's tactical landscape. 

1. Width and Scale

The Zagros range is approximately 240 km (150 miles) wide on average. Near the Strait of Hormuz (Bandar Abbas region), the range broadens into a series of parallel ridges and deep valleys. 

  • Northern Segment: About 200 km wide.
  • Southern Segment: Widens to roughly 350–400 km as it approaches the southeast near the coast.
  • Elevation: Peaks in the southern range reach up to 4,000 meters (13,000 ft)

2. Tactical Feasibility of a Landing

Landing Marines "on top" of the Zagros to control both sides is considered logistically and tactically improbable by military experts for several reasons:

  • The "One-Sided" Problem: The Zagros Mountains are entirely on the Iranian (northern) side of the Strait. Landing on them would give Marines a dominant view of the northern coast but would not provide physical control of the southern (Omani) shore, which is separated by the strait's waters.
  • Extreme Terrain: The range consists of "linear ridges" and deep gorges that act as a "natural defensive shield". Moving large-scale armored units through these mountains is nearly impossible, as any force would be funneled into easily defended narrow passes.
  • Vulnerability: A force landed on the peaks would be isolated and entirely dependent on aerial resupply. They would face "high-altitude urban warfare" and constant risk from hidden missile and drone depots in the valleys below.
  • Control of the Strait: While the peaks offer excellent surveillance, controlling the actual water (to prevent mining or missile attacks) requires seizing shoreline and key islands like Qeshm rather than just mountain tops.

Comparison of Strategic High Ground

Feature Zagros Mountains (Iran)Musandam Mountains (Oman)
HeightUp to 4,000m+Up to 2,000m+
Strategic UseNatural "wall" protecting the Iranian interior.Overlooks the narrowest shipping lanes.
ControlProvides "high ground" over Iranian coastal batteries.Controls the southern entry/exit of the Gulf.

Deploying howitzers on the Musandam Peninsula (south shore) is tactically superior for defense, as it provides a stable, friendly platform to control the world's most critical maritime chokepoint. While the Zagros Mountains (north shore) offer height, a landing there would place Marines in a "nightmare" scenario—isolated, outnumbered, and under constant fire from inland drone and missile swarms. 

1. The Zagros Option (North Shore Landing)

  • The "Gallipoli" Risk: Military analysts warn that landing Marines on the Iranian coast or its islands could mirror the disastrous Gallipoli campaign.
  • Isolation: The Zagros range is up to 240 km wide [Previous Turn]. A landing force on the peaks would be cut off from sea support by Iranian coastal batteries and naval mines.
  • Targeting: From the high Zagros, howitzers could hit Iranian coastal positions, but they would be "sitting ducks" for Iran's Shahed-136 drones and mobile missile launchers hidden in the thousands of inland valleys. 

2. The Musandam Option (South Shore Defense)

  • Strategic Overlook: The Musandam Peninsula is an "impenetrable fortress" that directly overlooks the 21-mile-wide navigable throat of the Strait.
  • Artillery Coverage: Modern howitzers like the M777 can fire precision-guided Excalibur rounds up to 40 km (25 miles).
    • From Musandam's peaks (e.g., Jebel Harim), a single battery can cover the entire width of the Strait and reach the Iranian coastline.
  • Defensibility: These positions are located in friendly Omani territory, allowing for secure ground-based logistics and integration with regional air defenses like Patriot and Sky Sabre systems. 

3. Comparison of Artillery Capability

Feature Zagros (North Shore)Musandam (South Shore)
Tactical PositionOffensive / "Behind Enemy Lines"Defensive / "Guardian"
LogisticsRisky aerial resupply onlySecure ground and sea supply
Primary ThreatInland drone swarms & IRGC ground forcesCoastal anti-ship missiles & fast boats
Strait ControlInterdiction of Iranian batteriesProtection of 20% of global oil flow

Recommended Equipment for Control

The M777A2 Lightweight Howitzer is the ideal tool for these mountain positions because it can be sling-loaded by helicopters to peaks inaccessible by road. Pairing these with Excalibur precision munitions allows Marines to pick off small IRGC fast boats or mobile missile launchers with meter-level accuracy.

As of April 2026, there is no official public record of the U.S. Marines permanently establishing fixed artillery "fortresses" on the 

Musandam Peninsula peaks. However, recent military activity suggests this strategic plan is actively being prepared or partially implemented as part of Operation Epic Fury:

1. Current Marine Deployments

  • Rapid Response Force: In March 2026, the Pentagon ordered a Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) of approximately 2,500 to 5,000 personnel to the region.
  • Sea-Based Readiness: These forces are currently operating from amphibious assault ships like the USS Tripoli (LHA-7), which are stationed just outside the Strait in the Gulf of Oman. This allows them to "helo-lift" M777 howitzers to mountain peaks within hours if the conflict escalates further. 

2. Strategic "Bunker Buster" Strikes

Rather than occupying the mountains first, the U.S. has focused on neutralizing the threat from the other side:

  • Hardened Target Strikes: On March 17, 2026, U.S. forces used GBU-72 "Bunker Buster" bombs (5,000-pound munitions) to strike Iranian anti-ship missile sites embedded in the Zagros coastline.
  • Mine Countermeasures: U.S. strikes have also targeted and destroyed at least 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels to keep the shipping lanes open. 

3. The Role of Oman

  • Sovereignty ConstraintsOman historically acts as a mediator ("The Switzerland of the Middle East"). While they grant the U.S. access to ports like Duqm and airbases like Khasab, they are cautious about allowing permanent foreign artillery batteries on their highest peaks, as it would be seen as a direct provocation to Iran.
  • Joint Exercises: Units like the Sultan of Oman's Parachute Regiment have recently conducted "Mountain Storm" exercises with Western allies, practicing the exact high-altitude maneuvers required to hold the Musandam heights. Congress.govCongress.gov +2
Status Activity
Marines on Peaks?No permanent bases; units are ship-borne and ready for rapid insertion.
Artillery in Range?Ships in the Gulf of Oman carry the artillery and helicopters needed to occupy the heights.
Recent Combat?U.S. air strikes have hit Iranian positions on the north shore as recently as March 2026.

While the standard M777 howitzer is excellent for local defense, the U.S. military has shifted to much more powerful, long-range systems specifically designed to control the north shore of the Strait of Hormuz from the safety of the south shore. 

1. Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) - The New Standard 

The most significant advancement as of early 2026 is the combat debut of the Precision Strike Missile (PrSM). Unlike traditional artillery, these are fired from the highly mobile HIMARS launchers. 

  • Massive Range: The baseline version (Increment 1) can hit targets over 500 km (310 miles) away, meaning a launcher in Oman can strike deep into the Iranian interior, far beyond the Zagros peaks.
  • Ship-Killing Capability: The PrSM Increment 2 (the "Land-Based Anti-Ship Missile") recently completed its first flight test in March 2026. It uses an advanced multi-mode seeker to track and sink moving warships, making it the ultimate tool for closing the strait from land. Lockheed MartinLockheed Martin +5

2. Next-Gen "Super-Range" Artillery Shells 

If you want to stick with traditional 155mm cannons like the M777, there are several "smart" shells currently in use or testing that triple the range of standard rounds: 

  • XM1155-SC (Sub-Caliber): This experimental shell has demonstrated a range of over 110 km (68 miles). It uses a "sabot" (a protective sleeve that falls away) to fly at much higher velocities than standard shells.
  • Ramjet 155: These shells contain a small engine that breathes air to maintain speed, with an estimated range of roughly 150 km (93 miles).
  • M982 Excalibur: Already in service, these GPS-guided rounds have a range of about 40–60 km (25–37 miles) and are incredibly

3. Comparison of Control Systems (2026)

System PlatformMax RangePrimary Target
PrSM (Inc 2)HIMARS500 km+Moving Ships / Coastal Batteries
XM1155-SCM777 / Paladin110 kmHidden Missile Launchers in Valleys
ExcaliburM77740–60 kmPoint targets on the immediate shoreline
TomahawkShips/Subs1,600 kmHardened command bunkers deep inland

Why these are better for the "North Shore"

Using these systems from the Musandam Peninsula (south shore) allows the Marines to:

  1. Avoid the Zagros Trap: They don't need to land "on top" of the mountains where they are vulnerable [Previous Turn].
  2. Total Coverage: From the Omani side, a single HIMARS battery with PrSMs can cover the entire Strait and almost every Iranian naval base on the northern coast.
  3. Accuracy: These aren't "dumb" bombs; they can hit a specific window or a moving boat, minimizing the risk of hitting civilian oil tankers. Lockheed MartinLockheed Martin +3

Weapon Reach from the Musandam Peninsula (South Shore)

As of April 2026, the US and allied forces utilize a "layered defense" strategy. By positioning these systems on the Musandam Peninsula, they can control the entire Strait without needing to land in the

  • M982 Excalibur (40 km): This is your "inner guard." It covers the primary shipping lanes and can accurately hit Iranian fast-attack boats or coastal anti-ship missile sites on the immediate north shore.
  • XM1155-SC (110 km): Reaching over 110 km (68 miles), this sub-caliber shell allows traditional M777 artillery to strike deep into the Zagros foothills. It is specifically designed to hit moving targets or missile launchers hidden in valleys that standard air strikes might miss.
  • PrSM - Precision Strike Missile (500 km): Fired from HIMARS, the PrSM (Increment 2) is a dedicated "ship-killer" that reaches far beyond the mountains to hit Iranian command hubs and naval bases like Bandar Abbas.
  • Tomahawk (1,600 km): Launched from Navy ships and submarines patrolling the Gulf of Oman, these provide the "over-the-horizon" capability to strike any target within the Iranian interior with high precision. National Defense MagazineNational Defense Magazine +8

Tactical Advantage of the "South Shore" Reach

By staying in Oman, the Marines maintain a secure supply line while their weapons "reach across" the water to create a no-fly and no-sail zone. This prevents the "Fishbowl Effect" where Marines would be vulnerable if they landed directly in the Zagros peaks. 



02 April 2026

Europe's New Self-Reliance Post WW 2, Post Cold War & the Strait of Hormuz

The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has sharply highlighted Europe’s uncertain strategic position after the end of the Cold War. Many institutions and economic interests in both the United States and Europe had grown comfortable with the Cold War framework and were reluctant to see it end. Yet global circumstances have continued to evolve. President Trump, at least, appears to recognize the new configuration of national powers and the specific challenges it presents.

After the Second World War, Europe was in ruins—much like Ukraine today—with widespread destruction and heavy casualties. The Marshall Plan helped fund reconstruction, but recovery was neither quick nor simple. European militaries were weakened, and the Soviet Union immediately emerged as a major threat to the West. The Soviets, understandably, had no interest in a “catch and release” arrangement with a Western Europe that still contained Nazi sympathizers in several countries. Spain, for example, had already experienced a civil war that brought fascists to power.

After nearly half a century of communist occupation and supervision, the Eastern European nations under Soviet control were finally released at the end of the Cold War. To prevent any resurgence of fascism in Germany, the country was required to forgo certain weapons and military capabilities, even as former Nazis were gradually reintegrated. Several nations passed laws banning the advocacy of Nazi ideology, creating institutionalized restrictions on free speech. Some observers suggest the U.S. Democratic Party has modeled aspects of its approach to speech and thought control on this paradigm—labeling opponents as fascists, racists, or servants of authoritarian interests.

For nearly fifty years, Western Europe relied on the United States as the backbone of its military defense against communist expansion. NATO was created primarily to counter the Soviet threat. At the time, China was not yet a significant strategic concern; its communist revolution concluded in 1949, and it did not develop a nuclear weapon until 1964.

The Cold War became a global struggle against communist expansion. While Stalin had favored “socialism in one country,” after his death Soviet leadership shifted toward a more internationalist policy closer to Trotsky’s vision—one that Stalin had fiercely opposed. This shift fueled proxy wars, revolutions in Africa, the Vietnam conflict, and global terrorism. Over time, both the U.S. and the Soviet Union adopted Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) doctrines as their nuclear arsenals grew large enough to destroy civilization many times over.

Arms reduction talks and periods of détente followed. President Reagan famously urged Gorbachev to “tear down this wall.” Earlier, President Kennedy had visited Berlin and declared, “Ich bin ein Berliner.” As a World War II veteran, Kennedy understood the horrors of war. President Eisenhower had an even deeper grasp of global military strategy, though he was less informed about Iranian politics and history. He authorized the CIA to overthrow Iran’s elected constitutional government in 1953, fearing a communist takeover after Prime Minister Mossadegh nationalized British oil interests. That decision marked the beginning of long-term Iranian hostility toward the United States and helped set the stage for Iran’s later push to develop nuclear weapons.

Before the CIA-backed coup, the United States had actually enjoyed significant popularity in Iran, thanks in part to effective American economic advisers who had assisted the Iranian government.

When President Reagan, working with Mikhail Gorbachev, helped bring the Cold War to an end, many Western politicians were unprepared for the change. For a time, Reagan stood nearly alone in his administration in his desire for genuine peace with Russia and the ultimate elimination of nuclear weapons. He was far ahead of his time. Even George H.W. Bush needed time to fully shift course and continue Reagan’s policy of engagement.

Europeans were understandably elated at the end of a divided continent. However, President Clinton—shaped by his Oxford background and limited grasp of Russian history—worked with Boris Yeltsin (an alcoholic leader famously seen running around the White House lawn in his underwear) in ways that contributed to the current Ukraine conflict. As some historians have noted, Russia was never going to permanently accept the complete loss of Ukraine and especially Crimea. A future reckoning was likely inevitable.

Twenty-five years after the Cold War’s end, Europe has used the Ukraine conflict as a lever to maintain military momentum, keep all of Ukraine under Western influence, and impose long-term sanctions on Russia. With the International Criminal Court based in Europe and European-led charges of war crimes against President Putin, sanctions are unlikely to end even if the fighting stops—unless Putin ends up in The Hague. The war has proven good business for some, and previous U.S. administrations provided full funding. It could have been ended earlier through diplomacy, allowing sanctions to lift and the global economy to normalize.

Europe clearly has different priorities regarding Ukraine than the United States. The U.S. largely wants the war to end and opposes indefinitely financing a Ukrainian regime that appears willing to risk escalation toward World War III. President Zelensky has already called for nuclear weapons, and some European nations have discussed allowing aircraft carrying nuclear arms into Ukraine. France, Britain, and Germany continue to supply weapons, intelligence, and advisers, while also targeting Russian oil infrastructure.

The United States, facing Iran’s nuclear ambitions, support for terrorism, and threats to Israel, is now engaged in conflict in the Persian Gulf region. Washington has asked Europe for support, noting that Europe (and Asia) also depend heavily on oil from the area. Europe has largely refused, even denying U.S. military aircraft use of their bases for Middle East operations. Since most of these nations are NATO members, their refusal effectively signals that the alliance—designed for the Cold War era—has become obsolete. European leaders now have different interests and threat assessments than they did between 1945 and 1989.

After losing most of its third-world colonies in the decades following World War II, Europe appears to have viewed a weakened post-Soviet Russia as an opportunity to establish new influence. President Clinton persuaded Yeltsin, as leader of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), to accept arrangements that detached Ukraine from Russia—despite Ukraine having been part of Russia before the 1917 Communist Revolution.

Europe has clearly recovered from its devastated post-World War II condition. It can now afford to fund its own militaries and no longer needs the United States as its primary defender against communism. Ironically, some European governments themselves exhibit tendencies that critics associate with creeping socialism or authoritarian control over speech and policy.

Rather than rigid, mechanical alliances like the current NATO structure, it may be wiser to develop flexible, tacit understandings based on mutual interests. The goal should be restoring healthy international relations, healing the global environment, reducing poverty, and protecting human rights and free speech worldwide.

Many observers remain concerned about German military rearmament and the possible development of advanced weapons systems, including traditional weapons of mass destruction.

President Trump is navigating this complex “three-ring circus” of global political and military challenges as the world moves beyond the old NATO framework. NATO’s rules and commitments will likely need reform toward a more flexible, libertarian-style arrangement without automatic binding defense obligations. Russia is highly unlikely to attack the Baltic states, despite warnings from Zelensky aimed at securing more Western aid. The Baltic states were historically part of the Russian sphere before 1917 (acquired after Sweden’s defeat in the Great Northern War), yet they are small, difficult to hold in modern war without massive destruction, and not economically essential to Russia.

Nations ultimately thrive better through peace and prosperity than through endless military conflict. Ukraine could reasonably be divided into two viable states with open borders, special lifetime visas for citizens on both sides, and liberal trade policies. With normal economic relations, the main differences would be taxes and local elections. Healthy competition between the two could even drive progress.

The Trump administration cannot anticipate every scenario that may emerge from adversarial actions in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran, short of capitulating or being replaced by a regime more aligned with U.S. and Israeli interests, may seek Chinese naval assistance to ensure continued access to and control over the Strait.

Within its limited strategic deck, Iran’s strongest remaining card may be an attempt to shift oil transactions away from the dollar toward the yuan. There are already indications that Tehran has considered allowing passage through the Strait only under yuan-based settlement conditions—a move aimed less at immediate economics than at long-term pressure on the global financial system.

That is a scenario the administration is aware of, increasing the likelihood that Kharg Island—Iran’s primary oil export terminal—could be targeted to cripple its ability to load oil onto tankers. Such a move would not only constrain Iran’s revenue but also limit its capacity to play that currency card effectively.

In turn, this would likely accelerate U.S. efforts in solar panel construction and broader energy innovation, both to offset supply disruptions and to avoid ceding further ground to China in the global energy transition.

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