Democrats, Dystopia and Trump Team Prospects for World Dance

 Democrats have taken a few shots at Republicans and the Trump team especially in recent years. Having drank the kool-aid of Trump being a fascist for not being an open borders guy, the movement to make the world a global village through adding up enough public debt and illegal immigration to make the nation unfeasible does have impatient ones that want to accelerate positively degenerative change to a dystopia they seek as utopia.

The rave horse of 2023 could serve as a role model for positive dancing, if one seeks world dance in the midst of a time of conflict. The Trump team itself has sought to bring peace through strength, abnegation of support for nuclear conflict in Ukraine or the Middle East and so forth. One hopes though, that they discover a path to adding social security contributions from the rich to keep that system alive beyond it's gerontocratic decline into insolvency in five years. No one knows how to balance the federal budget and is willing to do so without trimming the poor. One wonders if parrots or ravens could be trained to elocute politician's talking points for elections since they generally don't  seem complex.

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/WBEKsGNxEGc?feature=share

Crypto-Currency- Good Prospects for Surviving W.W. Three?

 I learned a bit about crypto currency. Not sure what Milton Freedman would have thought about it. One of the down sides is that with large emp blasts or a future global conflict it might not survive. It really is a floating currency and secured electronically. Quantum computers may change the security of crypto as well.

 I don't do stocks or even monetary policy things since my interests are more along the lines of 'invest in heaven where flame and moth don't corrupt' lol. There was a philosopher- one of the Diogenes, who was a cynic and eschewed possessions. Laying on the ground in the sunshine the story goes that Alexander the Great walked up to him and said; 'I will give you whatever you like, teach me your wisdom. Diogenes looking up at Alexander reportedly said-'Move aside, you are blocking the sun'. I am not a cynic, yet the moderate approach to possessions and value theory (the philosophical field of axiology) is something I do have an interest in.

With 40 trillion dollars of public debt some feel the economy will crash in a year or 10 and the U.S. government will go bankrupt. The rich and many others will have invested in crypto and feel independent of the dollar's devalue- and making it difficult to recover from the probable depression with no capital available for pump priming the economy.

Social Security is supposed to run out of solvency in five years requiring cuts. If only those in the upper 50% were cut that might not be painful too them exceed for their pride in prosperity being slapped. If they cut the bottom 50% by as much as 25% that is likely to cause real pain for those relying upon it as their sole source of income. Americans being the way they are these days are unlikely to tolerate just the prosperous being downgraded 25% and will insist the poor suffer too- since the prosperous tend to feel it is their money, rather than social income insurance to keep Americans out of dire poverty.

I believe that with the mention in the bible of God not favoring those people that trim the poor, the prospects for national recovery may be even worse than is necessary after decades of irrational exuberance in regard to tax cuts for the prosperous.

Israel Should Restore the Ecosystem of Southern Lebanon in the Interim

 Since Israel plans to make a border buffer zone in Southern Lebanon and make the Litani River the boundary, they should at least clean up the Litani River as a service to Lebanon.

Lebanon is the world's third most polluted country. It needs electric cars to platforms for low cost to replace the aged and dirty fossil fuel powered fleet. Before the Lebanese civil war it was a decent country. Hezbollah and other bad actors have used it as a base to attack Israel. The P.L.O. didn't help. Lebanese efforts to have a fair and balanced government didn't work because of political assassinations of leaders that weren't puppets to terrorists. Bani Sadr was one casualty of the early era when Christians could still be elected to the highest office.

So environmental restoration work is one of the lowest priorities for the troubled nation. The Litani River is the country's best water source yet dangerously polluted. Even raw sewage flows into it in addition to other toxic substances. Restoring the river to health would require solar compost toilets to replace the existing systems of human waste processing, or something more advanced like solar electric or solar microwave processing.

Israel plans to destroy housing and buildings that can shelter terrorists and make the region barren. That presents a great opportunity to begin a long range project of restoring the environment to health before future Lebanese return to reoccupy it when or if the terrorist danger to Israel from Lebanon is past.

EGS Geothermal Power Potential for Alaska's Railbelt Energy Supply

 The state of Alaska could use reliable, affordable energy for the states rail-belt where most Alaskans live. Geothermal power seems to be that source. The state might look in to developing that rather than throwing money into a natural gas pipeline. Once the Iran conflict ends the world will return to being awash in natural gas supply. Burning it can also enable aggressive greenhouse gases to be released into the atmosphere. Methane is one-  it’s the primary component of natural gas and is 80 times worse than CO2 at trapping heat in the atmosphere. Burning natural gases releases CO2. 

I asked Grok about EGS for development in Alaska. Following is what it said in reply to my questions…

Grok– Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) are a promising technology that could potentially be developed in Alaska’s Railbelt, though it’s more about leveraging the state’s strong natural geothermal advantages near volcanic areas than pure “hot dry rock” EGS in non-volcanic zones.

Quick Overview of EGS

Conventional geothermal relies on natural hot water/steam reservoirs with heat, fluid, and permeability. EGS (sometimes called engineered or enhanced geothermal) creates or expands reservoirs in hot rock that lacks sufficient natural permeability or fluid by injecting water under controlled pressure to fracture the rock. This allows fluid to circulate, absorb heat, and return to the surface to drive turbines for electricity (or provide direct heat).

• It uses oil/gas industry tech like directional drilling and hydraulic stimulation.
• Potential: Baseload (24/7), low-carbon power almost anywhere with hot enough rocks at accessible depths. Recent U.S. projects (e.g., in Utah) are advancing toward commercial scale.
• Challenges: High upfront drilling costs, managing induced seismicity, water use/loss, and long-term reservoir performance (e.g., cooling over time).

Alaska’s Railbelt Context

Alaska’s Railbelt (roughly Anchorage to Fairbanks, serving ~70% of the state’s population) relies heavily on natural gas (Cook Inlet, with declining supplies) and some coal/hydro. Renewables like wind/solar are growing but intermittent, so firm baseload like geothermal is attractive for decarbonization and energy security.

Alaska has excellent geothermal fundamentals due to its position on the Pacific Ring of Fire:

• High heat flow/volcanic activity, especially in Southcentral Alaska near the Railbelt.
• Conventional hydrothermal resources exist, but EGS could expand access to hotter/deeper zones or areas without ideal natural reservoirs.

Specific Potential Near the Railbelt

• Mt. Spurr ( ~75 miles west of Anchorage): Strong focus for development. It’s an active volcano with identified potential for 50–120 MW (or more in phases). Proximity to the Railbelt grid (e.g., near Beluga) makes transmission feasible. Projects involve exploration, leases, and interest from companies like GeoAlaska/Ignis. Webinars and studies highlight it as “volcano power for the Railbelt.”
• Mt. Augustine (Cook Inlet island): Shallow magma chamber; potential for 200+ MW with subsea cable tie-in to the Railbelt. Seen as attractive for baseload.

These sites lean more toward high-temperature volcanic/hydrothermal systems (with magma influence providing heat), but EGS techniques could enhance them—e.g., by improving permeability in fractured volcanic rock or accessing deeper hot zones. Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys experts note that successful EGS (like in Utah) could open “vast” potential in magma-rich Alaska, even beyond obvious volcanic spots.

Other factors:

• Policy/Support: HB 50 and geothermal lease efforts aim to boost exploration. Studies (NREL, ACEP) evaluate geothermal in Railbelt decarbonization scenarios, though some note limited “identified viable resources” for conventional types so far.
• Challenges in Alaska: Remote logistics, high drilling costs in rugged/cold terrain, seismic risks (already high naturally), permitting, and grid integration. Permafrost and variable heat flow add complexity, but volcanic areas help.
• Upside: Baseload renewable to replace gas/coal, resilience for microgrids, and potential for direct-use heat.

Bottom line: Yes, EGS (or EGS-enhanced volcanic geothermal) is viable and actively discussed/explored for the Railbelt, especially at Spurr and Augustine. Conventional resources there are already promising, and EGS tech could scale it further. Progress depends on drilling results, PPAs with utilities, and infrastructure (roads/transmission). It’s not “anywhere” like ideal EGS, but Alaska’s geology gives it a big head start

A recent study (published April 2026 in Science) is unlikely to meaningfully change the geothermal power outlook—either at Yellowstone itself or more broadly for EGS/hydrothermal development. It refines the mechanism driving Yellowstone’s heat but doesn’t reduce the actual heat budget or accessibility in a way that hurts (or dramatically helps) energy production.

What the New Study Says

The paper challenges the classic deep mantle plume model (a vertical column of hot material rising from near the core-mantle boundary). Instead, it proposes:

• Magma/heat originates mainly in the shallow asthenosphere (upper mantle, just below the lithosphere).
• An eastward “mantle wind” (slow horizontal flow of hot mantle material, influenced by remnants of the ancient Farallon slab) carries buoyant material under Yellowstone.
• Tectonic stretching and decompression of the lithosphere create melting and form a tilted, channel-like plumbing system of magma mush (diffuse partially molten rock) rather than a single deep chamber.
• The system is driven more by lithospheric tectonics than a deep plume.

This aligns with other observations (e.g., no clear vertical plume imaged, southwest-dipping magma structures). It helps explain hazards and long-term behavior better but confirms Yellowstone still has abundant heat from mantle sources—just delivered via a different pathway.

Why It Probably Won’t Impact Geothermal Outlook Much

• Heat is heat: Geothermal power relies on high temperatures at drillable depths (typically <5–10 km for EGS). Whether the heat comes from a “plume” or tectonic decompression/mantle flow, the thermal gradient and shallow magma mush in Yellowstone remain exceptionally high. The study doesn’t suggest cooling or reduced flux.
• Yellowstone National Park itself: Development is banned by law (Geothermal Steam Act). The park protects its unique hydrothermal features. This study changes nothing there—drilling risks geysers/fumaroles regardless of the exact source model.
• Broader implications for EGS:
  • EGS works by fracturing hot dry rock and circulating fluid. A shallower/more diffuse source might even imply more widespread hot rock, potentially expanding viable areas around the Yellowstone hotspot track (e.g., Snake River Plain in Idaho).
  • Tectonic control emphasizes permeability and stress fields—key for siting EGS wells (fractures help fluid flow). This could refine exploration models but not deter investment.
  • No major shift in economics or feasibility. High heat flow in the region was already known; this is more academic refinement.

Real-world geothermal context near Yellowstone:

• The area has huge potential (enough in theory for massive power), but practical development happens outside the park in places like Idaho, Utah, or Nevada using conventional or EGS tech.
• Past ideas (e.g., NASA thought experiments on cooling the system for power) were hypothetical and faced huge technical/permit hurdles. This study doesn’t revive or kill them.

In short, it’s a cool advance in understanding supervolcano dynamics and hazard assessment, but it won’t redirect geothermal strategies. The Railbelt in Alaska (from our prior chat) benefits from its own volcanic/tectonic setting, which this doesn’t touch. If new drilling or modeling data emerges tying this directly to resource estimates, that could shift things slightly—but right now, it’s business as usual for geothermal prospectors.

Mt. Spurr (and similar Railbelt volcanoes like Augustine) likely features magma mush-style systems—broad zones of partially molten rock (crystal-rich “mush”) rather than a single large, liquid-filled chamber. This is consistent with modern understanding of arc volcanoes and aligns with the recent Yellowstone refinements, but it does not negatively change (and may slightly improve) EGS potential for powering the Railbelt.

Mt. Spurr’s Magmatic/Plumbing System

Seismic tomography and monitoring at Mt. Spurr show:

• No large, low-velocity “magma chamber” in the upper ~10 km (typical of classic models). Instead, there are zones of fluid/melt ascent, intrusions at 3–12+ km depths, and evidence of deeper magma supply.
• Recent unrest (e.g., 2004–2006, 2024–2025) involved magma intrusions causing seismicity, gas release, and summit ice melting—interpreted as new magma batches moving into shallower levels without a massive centralized reservoir.
• Like many subduction-zone (Aleutian arc) volcanoes, it fits the magma mush paradigm: diffuse, crystal-rich partially molten regions in the crust/upper mantle, fed by deeper melts. Volatiles and fluids rise through fractures, driving hydrothermal activity. This mirrors broader shifts away from “big blob” chambers toward networked, mushy systems (as refined in the Yellowstone study).

Similar patterns appear in other Alaska volcanoes (e.g., partial melt zones imaged elsewhere in arcs). The heat ultimately comes from mantle wedge melting + tectonic processes in the subduction setting—not a deep plume like the old Yellowstone model.

Implications for Geothermal & EGS at Spurr/Railbelt

This understanding helps rather than hurts development:

• Abundant heat without a classic reservoir: Geothermal relies on high temperatures at drillable depths. Mush zones provide widespread hot rock/fluid pathways. Hydrothermal fluids (already documented at Spurr with warm springs, fumaroles, and geothermometry hints of 200°C+ potential) are driven by these systems.
• EGS upside: Enhanced Geothermal Systems excel in hot, low-permeability rock by fracturing it for fluid circulation. A more distributed mush/partial-melt setup could mean broader hot-rock volumes around the volcano (not just pinpoint reservoirs). This expands targets beyond traditional hydrothermal spots. Alaska’s volcanic arc already has high heat flow; mush models reinforce that potential.
• No major downside: The Yellowstone paper refined sources/mechanisms but didn’t reduce heat budgets. Same here—Spurr’s active system (recent intrusions) confirms ongoing heat. Challenges remain practical: ice cover, terrain, mixed/diluted surface fluids, past dry holes (e.g., Ormat efforts), and costs for roads/transmission to the Railbelt grid.

Current outlook for Railbelt electrification:

• Spurr has long been eyed for 50–100+ MW (phased), with interest from companies like Ignis/GeoAlaska. Proximity (~75 miles from Anchorage, near Beluga) aids grid tie-in. Recent lease interest and webinars (e.g., 2026) show momentum.
• Combined with Augustine (subsea cable potential) and EGS advances, it could provide firm baseload to complement hydro/wind and offset declining Cook Inlet gas.
• Mush-style insights could refine siting (e.g., targeting fracture zones or deeper hot rock) via better geophysics, improving success rates.

Bottom line: The shift toward mush/plumbing models is evolutionary science that better explains these volcanoes—it supports sustained heat and potentially larger exploitable areas. It won’t revolutionize timelines (drilling, permitting, and economics are bigger hurdles), but it doesn’t dim prospects and may aid exploration modeling. Alaska’s Ring of Fire setting gives it a strong edge over non-volcanic EGS sites.

If new seismic or drilling data comes out tying this directly to resource estimates, it could be even more positive.

Some N.A.T.O. Countries Poked the Bear

It is lucky Spain and other N.A.T.O. countries thumbed their noses at letting  U. S. aircraft use bases in their countries for the Iran war, now the U.S. has no obligation to defend N.A.T.O. countries if Russia retaliates  shooting down British, Rumanian or Spanish jets.

  I doubt Russia will soon reply to the N.A.T.O. first strike indiscretion. The prospect for a wider conflict for the U.S.A. to observe has been ignited though. One hopes the N.A.T.O. fuse fizzles out.

Zelensky Sides with Russia on Building Earth-Launched Anti-Satellite Weapons

 Europeans have continuously fueled the martial law President of Ukraine with weapons transfers, weapons development technology and so forth in the escalation of the Ukraine conflict. Now the martial law President for Life Zelenskyy wants anti-satellite weapons in order to strike Russia’s quasi Starlink network that is gradually being assembled in low Earth orbit. Much of the west including the United States had expressed the wish for a ban on such weapons and to have a moratorium on development because blasting satellites in orbit would create dangerous space debris. Russia, India and North Korea want to develop such systems because of some tactical or strategic paradigm for war.

Ukraine has accelerated development and proliferation of low cost, effective weapons technology that will be replicated in other wars now and in the future; jeopardizing world peace more than usual. At some point even Europe might have an interest in settling the war instead of throwing more gas onto the fire since the weapons systems may find their way onto their cities down the road. Ukraine’s weapons systems are affordable for many nations and terrorist actors unlike high-end aircraft and carriers that only nations with vast public debt can afford.

Creating debris in orbit to collide with future space missions and existing satellites is quite a bad idea. ELon Musk should pledge to turn off Ukraine’s Starlink access if it blows up satellites in orbit. The use of anti-satellite technology would set a very bad precedent for the security of all of those satellites that unite the global economy so far as it is united.

Gemini wrote-“There is no comprehensive international treaty banning the development, possession, or use of anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons, but the U.S. and several allies have pledged a voluntary ban on destructive, direct-ascent ASAT testing that creates debris. While the 1967 Outer Space Treaty bans nuclear weapons and weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in orbit or on celestial bodies, conventional space weapons remain legally unregulated, creating a push for new international norms. Arms Control Association +3

Current Status of ASAT Bans and Limitations

• Voluntary Testing Ban (2022): The United States announced a ban on destructive direct-ascent ASAT missile testing in April 2022, aiming to establish a new international norm against tests that create dangerous orbital debris.
• Coalition Supporters: Several countries have joined the U.S. in this voluntary moratorium, including Canada, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, South Korea, and New Zealand.
• Opposing Nations: Russia, China, India, and North Korea have not signed onto this ban and have previously tested or expressed opposition to such restrictions.
• The Outer Space Treaty (1967): This foundational treaty bans placing nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction (WMD) into orbit or on celestial bodies (such as the Moon). It does not specifically prohibit conventional weapons, such as lasers, kinetic kill vehicles, or earth-based missiles that target satellites. Arms Control Association +4

Types of Space Weapons

• Destructive Direct-Ascent ASATs: Missiles launched from Earth to destroy satellites (e.g., China in 2007, Russia in 2021).
• Co-orbital ASATs: Satellites equipped with explosive devices, kinetic weapons, or robotic arms designed to disable other satellites.
• Non-Kinetic/Soft Kill Weapons: Cyberattacks, ground-based lasers, or electronic jamming designed to disable satellites without creating”

Iran Looking to Democrat Party Allies in Order to Claim Victory Through the War Powers Act

 It is remarkable that the Dept of War can't secure the Strait of Hormuz from Iran fast boats and other vectors. Maybe they should have a contest to invent cheap defenses and incentivize free enterprisers since the navy seems slow to adapt. Maybe that's why the Sect of the Navy was fired recently.

  The camouflaged rubber ducky packed with c4 is an obvious favorite. The sky-dropped Japanese float bubble gambit of nitro glycerin is another, as are hordes of camouflaged drones and surface effects miniatures flying two meters to ten over the surface and directed by airborne AI. It should be easy for do-it-your-selfers to innovate dozens of defense against small boats in an hour or two.

  The Strait should be peaceful and uneventful so solar powered littoral twin hull kayaking journeys can resume for tourists in some future looking scenario.

Democrats are looking forward to the end of April when the !973 War Powers Act kicks in forcing the President to withdraw U.S. forces unless congress including the Senate gives permission to continue the conflict. Democrats plan to force the President to end the war in order to keep the Strait of Hormuz in Iranian control with no contest. That might help keep oil prices high and for Democrat theorists, harm Republicans mid-term elections chances if people are tired of paying more for gas.

I am not sure the plan would go according to plan. It is probable the Iranian war planners also were aware of the deadline and have been counting on a Democrat party victory to give them the opportunity to claim victory.