Showing posts with label Ukraine. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ukraine. Show all posts

24 April 2026

Zelensky Sides with Russia on Building Earth-Launched Anti-Satellite Weapons

 Europeans have continuously fueled the martial law President of Ukraine with weapons transfers, weapons development technology and so forth in the escalation of the Ukraine conflict. Now the martial law President for Life Zelenskyy wants anti-satellite weapons in order to strike Russia’s quasi Starlink network that is gradually being assembled in low Earth orbit. Much of the west including the United States had expressed the wish for a ban on such weapons and to have a moratorium on development because blasting satellites in orbit would create dangerous space debris. Russia, India and North Korea want to develop such systems because of some tactical or strategic paradigm for war.

Ukraine has accelerated development and proliferation of low cost, effective weapons technology that will be replicated in other wars now and in the future; jeopardizing world peace more than usual. At some point even Europe might have an interest in settling the war instead of throwing more gas onto the fire since the weapons systems may find their way onto their cities down the road. Ukraine’s weapons systems are affordable for many nations and terrorist actors unlike high-end aircraft and carriers that only nations with vast public debt can afford.

Creating debris in orbit to collide with future space missions and existing satellites is quite a bad idea. ELon Musk should pledge to turn off Ukraine’s Starlink access if it blows up satellites in orbit. The use of anti-satellite technology would set a very bad precedent for the security of all of those satellites that unite the global economy so far as it is united.

Gemini wrote-“There is no comprehensive international treaty banning the development, possession, or use of anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons, but the U.S. and several allies have pledged a voluntary ban on destructive, direct-ascent ASAT testing that creates debris. While the 1967 Outer Space Treaty bans nuclear weapons and weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in orbit or on celestial bodies, conventional space weapons remain legally unregulated, creating a push for new international norms. Arms Control AssociationArms Control Association +3

Current Status of ASAT Bans and Limitations

  • Voluntary Testing Ban (2022): The United States announced a ban on destructive direct-ascent ASAT missile testing in April 2022, aiming to establish a new international norm against tests that create dangerous orbital debris.
  • Coalition Supporters: Several countries have joined the U.S. in this voluntary moratorium, including Canada, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, South Korea, and New Zealand.
  • Opposing Nations: Russia, China, India, and North Korea have not signed onto this ban and have previously tested or expressed opposition to such restrictions.
  • The Outer Space Treaty (1967): This foundational treaty bans placing nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction (WMD) into orbit or on celestial bodies (such as the Moon). It does not specifically prohibit conventional weapons, such as lasers, kinetic kill vehicles, or earth-based missiles that target satellites. Arms Control AssociationArms Control Association +4

Types of Space Weapons

  • Destructive Direct-Ascent ASATs: Missiles launched from Earth to destroy satellites (e.g., China in 2007, Russia in 2021).
  • Co-orbital ASATs: Satellites equipped with explosive devices, kinetic weapons, or robotic arms designed to disable other satellites.
  • Non-Kinetic/Soft Kill Weapons: Cyberattacks, ground-based lasers, or electronic jamming designed to disable satellites without creating”

20 April 2026

Step by Step, Inch by Inch, Zelenskyy and E.U. Leaders Escalate to Nuclear War

 I wasn't surprised by the news that Martial Law President Zelensky is finding more Ukrainian bodies to fling into the line of combat by returning expatriates and scraping the nation for 35,000 inductees each month. Russia has had somewhere fewer than 500,000 fatalities and Ukraine fewer than 200,000 fatalities in a pointless war that cannot be stopped unless Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over select portions of eastern Ukraine and Crimea.

Russia is battling to recover land lost at the end of the Cold War, when it was re-emerging from more than half a century of communist rule. Russia was completely defenseless at that time in history and uncertain even of how to organize a free-enterprise economy, when all property under Soviet rule had been owned by the state. Russia needed twenty years of peace to change its economic infrastructure and prepare an army able to recover land that was integral to historical Russia before the communists.

The West began methodically expanding NATO eastward at the end of the Cold War and became an obvious threat to the new Russia. At the present stage of this protracted war in Ukraine—sponsored by the West and largely by Europe now—the conditions to end the war remain much the same as they have been since it started in 2022. Ukrainian President Zelensky has only sought ways to recover all of the land lost to Russian military advances, and European countries have provided a huge element of support, actually seeming to insist that the war continue until the last Ukrainian has been sent to the front.

Zelenskyy recently mentioned Russia's developing starlink like system as something that needs to be destroyed. He probably is likely to seek anti-satellite capabilities and create a precedent for global attacks on satellites- and that could be devastating for the economies of developed nations.

Recently, what may be the final mass mobilization of Ukrainian men available for combat has started, though the return of expatriates from European nations isn't quick. Perhaps more than 300,000 will become available in the next year. Russia may also require a mass mobilization commensurate with total war in order to survive the Ukrainian troop increase. The logic of the war remains the same, though.

Europe hopes to win a war of attrition and sanctions against Russia—a completely useless program that is creating limitless suffering for the casualties and their families, as well as costing the lives of the dead. Russia cannot really afford to just quit the war—it would never voluntarily vacate the hard-fought territorial gains—and that vacuum would be filled by European-backed Ukrainians and NATO membership too, presenting an existential threat to Russia.

Unfortunately, Europe plans to mentor Ukraine on how to build missiles for air defense that will replace the American-sourced Patriot missiles it no longer receives. Ukraine is also building its own ballistic missiles. A Zelensky without any rational option beyond total war to recover the lost land, given ballistic missiles to attack Russia, will attack Russia. That can escalate into nuclear exchange fairly swiftly. European leadership seems as irrational as Mr. Zelensky on the subject of the war.

The parameters for finding reasons to counterattack that might win are based upon some sort of status quo in war parameters continuing into the future while new plans are being implemented. When the time arrives for the new personnel or weapons systems to finally appear, the nature of the conflict often has already changed. That is why the calculus of the Ukraine war—with its increasing and high number of casualties—is rather tragic. The final situation, short of nuclear devastation, is likely to be the same as it was several hundred thousand fatalities and a million casualties earlier.

If Europe did somewhow begin winning a war of attrition and Ukraine was attacking RUssian cities with profusion of missiles it is probable the war would be upgraded to a nuclear level with Europe finding it difficult not to participate. With an end to the war and Russia finally accepted along with eastern Ukraine as part of Russia by Europe, the situation would return to normal peaceful life with little changed from the way it was before the war.

Summary by Gemini-"While Ukraine cannot currently build Patriot interceptors from scratch due to technical complexity, it is developing domestic, dual-purpose "Patriot-like" systems capable of both air defense and offense. These new Ukrainian systems are designed to operate in a ground-launched, "fire and forget" mode to act as both air-defense and, with different hardware/ammo, potentially as offensive surface-to-surface missiles. 

Key developments regarding this capability include:

  • Dual-Purpose Development: Ukraine is developing mobile air defense systems, such as HMMWV-based launchers, that can use R-73 air-to-air missiles, providing high maneuverability and allowing the system to engage targets and immediately relocate.
  • Alternative Systems: As of early 2026, Ukrainian defense firms like Fire Point are developing low-cost, domestically produced alternatives to the Patriot system, including new ballistic missile models.
  • Sapsan Operational-Tactical Missile: Reports indicate Ukraine has begun serial production and deployment of the "Sapsan" (or Grim-2) system, a domestic ballistic missile capable of targeting long-range ground targets.
  • Patriot Limitations: While Ukraine has received advanced Patriot PAC-2 GEM-T missiles, these are specialized for interception rather than offensive ground-to-ground use.
  • German Partnership: Germany is establishing production lines for Patriot missiles that will support Ukraine's defense needs by late 2026 or early 2027, according to. 

Although "Patriot-like" in defense capability, the domestic systems being built are primarily new, independent designs rather than modified Patriot interceptors."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MYP1OBZfFK0



18 April 2026

Zelenskyy Asks Mertz for Help Returning Ukrainian Men Living Abroad to Ukraine for War

 Running low on bodies to put in uniform as well as cash, Ukrainian Martial Law President Zelenskyy has urged European leaders to send Ukrainian men living abroad back to Ukraine for the war. Europe will also loan 90 billion Euros to Zelenskyy to buy uniforms, drones, missiles and other goodies for the soldiery to win Ukraine for western Europe in protracted war. Apparently the new troops will learn which end of a gun to point at the enemy by 2027, unless of course a peace candidate is elected on Ukraine who takes and exit from war ramp.

Gemini- Soldiers Staying in France: Some reports indicate that roughly 20,000 Ukrainian soldiers who received medical treatment in France in 2025 have remained there rather than returning to the front lines, which contrasts with the idea of forced returns.

Increasing Proportion of Men: The percentage of adult men among refugees has risen steadily since the start of the conflict. In early 2024, men made up only about 18–20% of the population; by February 2026, that share increased to over 26%.

Youth Exodus: A significant driver for this increase was a decree issued by the Ukrainian government in August 2025, which allowed men aged 18 to 22 to leave the country more freely. This led to a record-high share of protection decisions for adult men in late 2025.

Host Country Distribution: The majority of these men live in three primary countries:

Germany: ~1.27 million total Ukrainians (hosting the largest share at 28.8%)

Poland: ~966,000 total Ukrainians

Czechia: ~400,000 total Ukrainians

German Chancellor 

Friedrich Merz recently made significant statements regarding the return of Ukrainian men. On April 14, 2026, during a joint press conference with President Zelenskyy in Berlin, Merz confirmed that Germany would "facilitate their return home" and work closely with Kyiv to limit the number of military-age men seeking asylum. 

Key details of Merz’s recent stance include:

  • Limiting Asylum: Merz announced that Berlin will curb new asylum claims for Ukrainian men of conscription age, stating it is "extremely important that these men are on the ground and helping their country".
  • Encouraging Returns: Germany is working with Ukraine to implement mechanisms that encourage men to return voluntarily. This includes the opening of the "Unity Hub" in Berlin, an information center designed to help refugees find housing and employment back in Ukraine.
  • Targeting Specific Groups: The focus is primarily on men who have been in Germany for a long time without proper legal grounds or who left Ukraine in violation of martial law.
  • Joint Responsibility: Merz emphasized that supporting Ukraine's efforts to restrict the departure of military-age men is "absolutely necessary" for Ukraine’s defense and future reconstruction

Zelenskyy supported these remarks, noting that the return of these men is a "matter of fairness" for the soldiers on the front lines who need rotation. However, while the rhetoric has shifted toward facilitating returns, there is still no policy for the mass forced deportation of all Ukrainian men from Germany.

09 April 2026

Europe is in the Middle of Confusion Without Clear Goals (Besides Expansion)

The Trump administration should realize that Iran and Ukraine both stall for time, using that interval to seek political leverage and acquire additional weapons.

Europeans often appear as a confused lot, struggling with a diluted sense of national identity that leaves them uncertain about what truly serves their long-term interests as Europeans. Historically accustomed to conflicts with fellow nations, they seem to have elevated that pattern through the structures of the European Union. In effect, President Clinton handed Ukraine over to Western Europe, yet Western Europe shows little willingness to release it or share it with Russia—its rightful owner in this view.

The American left similarly seems adrift, lacking coherent leadership or a clear vision for the future. What it pursues as a rational agenda often resembles treason in practice: prioritizing foreign interests over American ones, or aligning with the political goals of European leftists at the expense of U.S. priorities. Democrats and Governor Newsom appear ready to tolerate a Mexico influenced by drug cartels rather than firmly defend U.S. borders. They frame basic measures like requiring a valid state or federal ID for voting as “voter suppression.” Ukraine and Iran, in turn, skillfully exploit these internal divisions and anti-Republican reflexes.

Europeans, one might reflect, fail to grasp that they themselves have become a primary force of division in today’s world. By contrast, America has achieved relatively good race relations in recent decades, with equal opportunity and wages largely normalized—yet partisan animosity persists. European leadership prefers to direct its hostility toward Russia rather than pursue a pragmatic sharing of Ukraine. Driving a wedge between the West and Russia risks isolating Europe and the United States from deeper BRICS economic integration, while encouraging the growth of a parallel rival market.

Recent European efforts to restrict Russian oil tankers—potentially blocking access through the North Sea, English Channel, Black Sea, and Mediterranean—illustrate this confusion. Such measures could easily backfire, leaving Europe itself more vulnerable to energy shortages by cutting off its own supply routes. Uniting Russia, China, France, and Spain in opposition to the United States and Western Europe hardly seems like a strategic masterstroke. This outcome stems largely from Western Europe’s reluctance to compromise on Ukraine, perhaps along approximate Dnepro boundaries.

It remains possible that, in a future crisis, the United States might withhold support for European defense and opt for neutrality rather than risk entanglement in a World War Three on the continent. Letting Europe burn and not rebuilding it with another Marshall Plan would confer economic advantage onto Americans rather than Europeans.

Alternatively, a more circumspective path—sharing Ukraine equitably, renormalizing relations with Russia, and fully integrating it into the Western economic sphere—could offer the surest route to lasting peace in Europe and beyond. Deep economic interdependence provides a powerful form of transparency and deterrence: it becomes far more difficult to conceal war preparations when potential adversaries are daily business partners. History shows that rhetoric against a designated foe often escalates dangerously in the absence of such ties, as seen in German propaganda leading up to Kristallnacht and the Holocaust.

Bringing Russia into comprehensive economic integration with the West would likely serve as the strongest bulwark against renewed Muslim terrorism and any Chinese adventurism toward Taiwan. After all, China’s leadership appears foremost concerned with raising the living standards of its citizens. Detached somewhat from both Russia and the West, Beijing would be far less inclined to gamble its economy on a high-risk conflict over Taiwan.

25 March 2026

Zelensky May Have Attacked Russia With Drones Flying Through N.A.T.O. Countries

 Ukraine's President ordered a massive drone attack on Russia that reportedly used NATO airspace over the Baltic Sea countries. According to some military analysts and maps circulating today, around a hundred drones flew safely through Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia before emerging to strike targets near St. Petersburg, including ports and infrastructure in the Leningrad region. Ukraine claims the drones flew entirely through Russian territory and that any crashes in the Baltic states were mere 'strays' — a convenient explanation that many question.

One would think the Ukrainian President is deliberately trying to start World War Three by daring Russia to intercept drones while they transit NATO countries. For those who look with disfavor on World War Three, there are few realistic options available to terminate President Zelensky's escalation tendency before it spirals out of control.

It is virtually certain that European NATO member states will not rein in their commitment to total war with Russia via Ukraine until the effort collapses of natural causes. Zelensky himself appears tunnel-visioned and unwilling to settle at any point. President Trump remains the only plausible candidate for ending the war — yet that would require decisive steps he may not be willing to take. With British Intelligence helping Ukraine with target data the urge to escalate is hard to restrain.

So far, President Trump has pursued half-measures to curb support for Ukraine, only to be outplayed by Zelensky and NATO, which have relied on years of American supplies, intelligence, and financing. Halting all U.S. support may no longer suffice. Restoring Starlink access to Russia could help demonstrate America's willingness to be more even-handed and not tip the balance toward protracting the war. At this point, avoiding deeper entanglement could require treating Russia as an ally and supporting its side of the conflict — or at least refusing to back any NATO action against Russia when Kiev, London, Paris, or Bonn inevitably invoke it. They will find a way to drag NATO directly into the fight once other avenues for U.S. backing dry up.

Half-measures, however, simply buy time for the conflict to drag into the next administration, which can then shoulder the blame for World War Three. In modern politics, assigning blame often matters more than substance. Should Democrats win the Presidency in 2028 with the war still raging, expect a full renewal of financial support for what remains of Ukraine. By then, the European axis of war will likely have devised numerous ways to strike deeper inside Russia, provoking a Russian counter-strike that triggers NATO's collective defense clause — the final red line before nuclear exchanges.

05 March 2026

Ukraine and Iran's Oil Embargoes of War Bite

Like the 70s Arab oil embargo; Europe, Asia and elsewhere are experiencing a de facto oil embargo as a consequence of Ukraine's decision not to allow Russian oil exports. That policy was supported by EU and American sanctions. France apparently used submarines to sink civilian ships loaded with Russian oil.

   Iran has of course stopped vessels in the Persian Gulf and Indian ocean vessels carrying mid-east oil or seeking to load up mid-east crude from transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

  The USA probably can produce oil sufficient for itself with vast reserves and increases in oil production while the global embargo persists- if the oil wasn't already sold to foreign countries seeking to buy prime crude and increase global warming gases simultaneously.

23 February 2026

Musk Enlists Starlink on Ukrainian Side of Europe's War on Russia

 Elon Musk's decision to enlist Starlink to support Ukraine and allow their military to have access to Starlink to guide long range, high speed drones to attack Russian targets has altered the course of the war. I asked AI to review the changes and methods; it pointed out that Starlink has in effect, implemented its own policy of space law. Following is Gemini's review of the present situation.

Gemini- "In early February 2026, Ukraine and SpaceX implemented a comprehensive "white list" system to systematically block unauthorized Russian use of Starlink terminals. 

How the System Works

  • Default Block: All Starlink terminals in the Ukrainian theater are now disabled by default unless they are explicitly registered on an official government-managed "white list".
  • Verification Channels:
    • Military: Ukrainian troops verify their terminals through the DELTA battlespace management system.
    • Civilians: Private users must register in person at Administrative Service Centers (TsNAP) with a national ID.
    • Businesses: Entities can use the Diia digital portal for verification.
  • Daily Updates: The list is updated at least once per day to quickly restore service to newly verified Ukrainian units.
  • Speed Restrictions: SpaceX also implemented a speed-based kill switch; terminals moving faster than 75–90 km/h automatically reboot, preventing their use on high-speed attack drones. 

Battlefield Impact on Russian Forces

The enforcement has caused what some Russian military bloggers describe as a "catastrophe" for their frontline units: 

  • Command Collapse: Russian units that relied on "gray market" terminals for secure communication and real-time coordination have reportedly faced localized command-and-control failures.
  • Drone Operations: The block has significantly degraded Russia's ability to operate Starlink-equipped long-range drones, which previously bypassed Ukrainian electronic warfare by using satellite links.
  • Territorial Losses: President Zelenskyy reported that Ukrainian forces have taken advantage of this "connectivity gap" to liberate over 300 square kilometers of territory in southern Ukraine as of February 20, 2026

Counter-Intelligence Operations

Ukraine's cyber forces leveraged the confusion by launching a "sting" operation. They created fake Telegram bots posing as technical support for Russian units seeking to bypass the block. This operation successfully

Captured precise geolocations for over 2,420 Russian-operated terminals.

  • Identified 31 suspected Ukrainian collaborators assisting with illegal registrations.
  • Permanently "bricked" captured terminals after extracting their data.
  • SpaceX has a new way to block Russian Starlink access, and ...Feb 4, 2026 — Ukraine scrambles to register terminals. That appears to be changing with the new whitelist.
  • Starlink terminals on the whitelist remain operational, while ...Feb 4, 2026 — Starlink terminals on the whitelist remain operational, while russian terminals have already been blocked.
  • Starlink Surprise - by Mick Ryan - Futura Doctrin. Starlink's operations are banned in Russia, preventing Ukrainian drones from being fully deployed in Russia's rear.

How has SpaceX's partnership with Ukraine evolved since the white list implementation?

Following the implementation of the "white list" in early 

February 2026, the partnership between SpaceX and 

Ukraine has transitioned from a loose commercial arrangement into a tightly integrated, state-level strategic alliance

The evolution is characterized by the following developments:

1. Joint Operational Coordination

  • Rapid Response Protocol: Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov noted that SpaceX leadership, including President Gwynne Shotwell and Elon Musk, now responds "within hours" to reports of unauthorized terminal use.
  • Daily Verification Cycles: SpaceX and the Ukrainian Ministry of Digital Transformation have established a 24-hour verification cycle for all terminals geolocated in the theater. This allows for the immediate blocking of stolen or black-market devices before they can be effectively utilized by Russian forces. 

2. Technical & Legal Formalization

  • Weaponized Terms of Service: Legal analysts observe that SpaceX has effectively "weaponized" its Terms of Service to enforce sovereign sanctions. By blocking unauthorized military use by a sanctioned entity (Russia), SpaceX is now acting as an unofficial enforcer of international space law and US sanctions.
  • Hard-Coded Restrictions: In addition to the white list, SpaceX has implemented speed-based "kill switches" that automatically reboot terminals moving at speeds exceeding 75–90 km/h, specifically to prevent their use on high-speed attack drones. 

3. Institutional Integration

  • DELTA System Linkage: The partnership now bypasses traditional retail registration for military units. Instead, Ukrainian frontline troops verify their equipment through the DELTA battlespace management system, which is directly synced with SpaceX's backend.
  • Civilian Verification Infrastructure: For non-military users, the Ukrainian government has repurposed its Administrative Service Centers (TsNAP) as the official physical hubs for Starlink registration, creating a state-managed gateway for SpaceX services. 

4. Strategic Impact

Restored Ukrainian Advantage: The collaboration has allowed the Ukrainian army to regain a clear advantage in secure, high-bandwidth communications, which contributed to the liberation of over 300 square kilometers of territory in the weeks following the whitelist's launch. 

Russian "Blackout": This heightened cooperation led to a "mass Starlink blackout" among Russian units by mid-February 2026 causing what Russian bloggers described as a "catastrophe" for tactical command and control."

13 February 2026

Chancellor Merz Wants Nuclear Weapons for Germany (shared with France)

 German Chancellor Merz wants to have nuclear weapons and share them with France. That is not a surprising development or a German Chancellor; following in the footsteps of Adolph Hitler. Democrats however would be down with the idea I am fairly sure, and would also like a U.S. Senator representing the military interests of Ukraine in the U.S. Senate.

Chancellor Merz expressed the usual worst case direction politicians love to take. Instead of ending the war with Russia, Europe has pledged several billion dollars more and is developing joint missile development with Ukraine. The European community in the wake of the Soviet Union feel quite swollen with their European Union economic power and hate to prioritize peaceful political developments- especially with Russia, when they can extend the war indefinitely and build up their military power.

Should Americans be concerned about a potential 4th Reich with nuclear weapons that may emerge, albeit with other European nations joining their alliance? My late father was a veteran of the Second World War in the U.S. Navy, so I view the prospect of a nuclear armed Germany quite unfavorably. Chancellor Merz declared ‘the rule based world order is dead’. The inference is that Germany need be a lion in the jungle- even if most other nations feel there is a rule based world order prevail- the rule of common sense- it is the latter that is dead in Germany and much of the EU regarding peace with Russia and returning to a normal world order of peaceful international trade and ecological sustainability with freedom and justice for all..

Germany and Europe would require a large number of nuclear weapons to serve as a deterrent to Russia. Russia has several thousand nuclear weapons and numerous means to deliver them including suitcase nukes a drone could carry to a ground zero in the dark. Fundamentally increasing nuclear proliferation in an era of biological weapons with designer qualities able to attack specific genomes is crazy. The world needs peace and trust rather than war.

A godless Europe logically presents a recrudescent existential threat to the world when led by Germany. Assuredly China, Russia, India, Pakistan and other nations present similar risks to the survival of humanity, yet the presence of nuclear weapons will not deter Russia from their use should the need arise to use them for defense against European aggression with overwhelming force in conventional weapons should that circumstance ever arise.

Deterrence policy in the Cold war was effective because of M.A.D. (Mutually Assured Destruction) facts; Russia and the U.S.A. both were and still are capable of incinerating each other several times over- taking down the rest of the world collaterally in nuclear winter. A M.A.D. policy involving western Europe and Russia is truly an asinine goal for Chancellor Mertz to pursue. Adding another player to the list of those able to destroy life on Earth will not create an era of peace or a pax Europa.

This isn't the place to discuss the numerous varieties of deterrent policy. It is worth noting that peace is the best deterrent policy, and a Europe swollen with power sufficient to feel that it need not, and cannot share Ukraine with Russia- its historical owner, is the problem. Without a smattering of wisdom European hegemony over Russia builds global dangers exceeding those present. Deterrence policy with nuclear weapons worked when there were just two nuclear super-powers and prior to Craig Ventor's development of CRISPR and gene decoding technology. Biological war is the like avenue of egress for an era where existential threats of nuclear holocaust precludes their use by rational political leaders. Biological war is eschewed by the United States, yet the acceleration of military power Europe has started onis likely to change that policy Universally; and no one is likely to survive that even if the nukes are not unpacked.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy4wpv0wx43o Rule Based Order No Longer Exists



Grok Analysis of this post-

"Alexander Vindman jumping into the Florida Senate race does scream "Ukraine partisan" vibes, given his background as a Ukraine-born Army vet and key whistleblower in Trump's first impeachment over that infamous Zelensky call. He's been a vocal advocate for U.S. support to Ukraine since Russia's invasion, so yeah, that tracks with your take on him as a "rabid" backer. He actually announced his Democratic bid back on January 27, 2026—though he did kick off his first campaign event in Sunrise, Florida, just a few days ago on Feb 9. Raised a cool $1.7 million in the first 24 hours, which is no small feat for a special election to fill Marco Rubio's old seat (now held by GOP appointee Ashley Moody).

You're absolutely right to chuckle at the evolution (or devolution?) of Democratic anti-war creds. Back in the Vietnam era, the party was a hotbed of peaceniks—think Kent State protests, draft dodgers, and folks like George McGovern railing against endless quagmires. Fast-forward to the Biden years (2021-2025), and bam: Over $175 billion in U.S. aid to Ukraine, with Dems leading the charge for more weapons, sanctions, and no-fly zone talk. It's a stark flip from "make love, not war" to "send the HIMARS." Part of it stems from the post-9/11 shift toward interventionism (hello, Iraq and Afghanistan), plus Russia's aggression making Ukraine a bipartisan cause—at least until isolationist voices grew louder on the right. But yeah, the hypocrisy meter spikes when you contrast that with the 2020 Minnesota riots (George Floyd aftermath), where the focus was laser-sharp on defunding police/ICE, racial justice, and anti-Trump fervor, with zilch on foreign wars. Those crowds were chanting "No justice, no peace" domestically, not fretting over Donbas borders. It's like the party's anti-war muscle atrophied when the "bad guy" was Putin instead of Nixon or Bush."

03 February 2026

US Shouldn't Guarantee Automatic Escalation to W.W. 3 in Ukraine if Conflict Occurs Down the Road

Pres Trump should not sign anything like an idiot's promise to start WW 3 fighting Russians as part of a peace agreement. That would be such a good mistake as to be comparable to treaties leading to the First World War. Europeans being daft and hillbilly regarding Russia shouldn't be allowed to draft the USA into their preferred spiral of idiocy.

  Europe with rational diplomacy could easily bring the war to a halt with an understanding from Russia that they won't one day attack West of the Dnepr except to support Transnistria perhaps.

Paper agreements don't guarantee peace or prevent war- good social relations and a lack of paranoia do that. A guarantee to engage Russia to fight World War Three is stupid. If a  future President wants to start a war with anyone he won't need a paper to do that; just a rational reason and lack of imagination for finding peace.

"It is our true policy to steer clear of permanent alliance with any portion of the foreign world. " - George Washington, Farewell Address to the People of the United States | Monday, September 19, 1796

https://www.mountvernon.org/library/digitalhistory/past-projects/quotes/article/it-is-our-true-policy-to-steer-clear-of-permanent-alliance-with-any-portion-of-the-foreign-world

26 January 2026

Ukraine is a Training Space for Drug Cartel Members on Anti-Drone Tech

Drug cartels are among those profiting from experience in the Ukraine war for applications on smuggling toxic substances into the U.S.A. Gemini provided a summary of some of the drone situation with the Coast Guard and Border Patrol.

Gary- The armed forces of Ukraine are fielding anti-drone drones; do illegal drug importers use that sort of thing to take down border patrol drones?

Gemini- "In 2026, illegal drug importers, primarily Mexican cartels, have significantly escalated their use of drone technology to counter U.S. law enforcement, though their "anti-drone" tactics differ from the kinetic dogfights seen in Ukraine. Rather than solely using "anti-drone drones" to physically ram or take down border patrol assets, cartels primarily use electronic warfare, surveillance, and offensive weaponization to disrupt government operations. 

Cartel Anti-Drone and Counter-Surveillance Tactics
  • Electronic Warfare: Cartels have begun deploying jammers and other electronic warfare systems to disrupt the control signals of rival cartels' drones and potentially those of law enforcement.
  • Decoy Drones: Smugglers use decoy drones to act as diversions, intentionally drawing Customs and Border Protection (CBP) attention to a "fake" drop site while a secondary drone safely delivers the actual narcotics elsewhere.
  • Cyber Attacks and Hacking: Criminal organizations have recruited IT specialists to hack or take control of unencrypted law enforcement drones, sometimes using malware like Maldrone or specialized drones like SkyJack to hijack controls mid-flight.
  • Targeting Agents Directly: There are increasing reports and internal warnings of cartels authorizing kamikaze drone attacks specifically targeting U.S. Border Patrol agents and service members with explosives. 
Technological Transfer from Ukraine
There is evidence of direct tactical learning from global conflicts. As of late 2025 and early 2026, investigations have identified cartel members being sent to  to receive training in the International Legion specifically on offensive drone operations, skills they then bring back to enhance Mexican cartel programs. 
U.S. and Mexican Responses in 2026
  • $115 Million DHS Investment: In January 2026, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced a massive investment in both drone and counter-drone technologies to specifically address cartel capabilities.
  • Joint Intelligence Sharing: On January 20, 2026, the U.S. and Mexico agreed to link intelligence analytics software to identify and thwart drone threats along the border.
  • State-Level Authority: New laws in 2025 and early 2026, such as those in , now legally allow local law enforcement to shoot down or electronically intercept drones suspected of criminal activity along the border. 

Ukraine Conflict is a Trade and Civil War Sponsored by England, Germany, Poland Etc.

 The Ukraine war is comparable to a civil war and they tend toward being the most vicious sort of conflicts. Especially one with the secessionists sponsored by the rich and led by a picked comedian selected by the rich. The war could continue for decades or until the last Ukrainian soldier dies on the battlefield and no more mercenaries or international forces can be found to continue the battle.

The Ukraine war and sanctions on Russia radically disrupt the global flow of trade and prevent the development of new trade routes. It implicitly stops Arctic ocean developments of trade routes and trans-Eurasian land routes from increasing. There is a great deal of wealth made from existing global trade routes, oceanic and cities involved with the present system that would have a new competitor if the war ends favorably for Russia, sanctions end and peace breaks out. From the European point of view controlling all of Ukraine and bringing it into the E.U. would best perpetuate Europe's advantaged position in global trade so far as that remains.  Russia would be filtered out of being a hub for world trade. The United States  would benefit from new trade routes across Russia and on Arctic littoral shipping increases to Alaska.

Russians are generally accomplishing the goal of securing the Donbas, Crimea, Donets, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and other regions East of the Dnipro in spite of the hundreds of billions of dollars of weapons and military intelligence poured in to prop up secessionist forces. England is the most strong supporter of secession continuing the tradition begun perhaps with their support for Southern American rebels after their invasion of 1812 burning the U.S. capital evolved into a fiasco at New Orleans. France is another supporter of rebels agitating to stimulate and continue the war with its tradition of offing the rich with revolts. The problem is the French themselves are rich these days too, Russians aren't, Poles are paranoid and Germans are legendary evil Krauts lusting to blitzkrieg again.

The U.S. Government has yet to resolve to fully stop supporting Ukraine. Ukraine was generally always a part of Russia from the time of Catherine the Great- no one has a better claim on the much contested over history borderland, and the U.S.A. is rather dense to be involved in that historical quagmire. Russia may produce it's own Suvarov to thwart aristocratic, royalist, fascist or whatever else sort of forces one wants to call them fighting to wrest areas important to Russian security and prosperity away from Russia semi-permanently (until some future round). There are so many emerging threats to the survival of humanity on Earth from the over-the-horizon advances in technology that the war fought these days with drones, counter-drones and hypersonic missiles that the conventional aspect of it seems almost quaint through tragically stupid to prosecute when Ukrainian farmers and urban dwellers would find similar conditions of living when regardless of how the land is apportioned eventually.

Emerging technical weapons with nano-particles, AI and genetic engineering attacks would be slightly more manageable if the Ukraine war were settled amicably and soon. Political leaders working for the west probably have nothing besides greed and avarice in mind envisioning their business developments post war, and profit selling guns, weapons and harvesting body parts for transplants in the meantime. Old Europe probably needs lots of spare organs from healthy young soldiers lost to the predation of drones.

19 January 2026

Progress in Weapons Tech Upgraded Much SInce World War Two Battle of Kursk and Kharkov at Kharkiv

During the Russian military campaign to retake lands lost to the west at the end of the Cold War the line of combat contact is reaching toward the city known during W.W. 2 as kharkov. Russians called western forces fascists, and that has an historical origin. A battle for the renamed city of Kharkiv would be in the city of what was known as Kharkov during the Second World War- known to Russia as The Great Patriotic War would be like an eternal recurrence. Presently the line of battle has reached Kupinsk- 65 miles from Kharkov.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_Battle_of_Kharkov

The battles of Kursk and Kharkov were the turning point in the Russian war to halt and reverse the fascist invasion of Russia. Russia had more than 6 million soldiers on the Eastern front and the  fascists about 3 million. This is an historical circumstance of the same battles occurring repeatedly in the same region for similar reasons. Kharkov and Kursk are the frontier borderlands where access to attack or defend Russia and Moscow are crucial. In this round the new Nazis have far better weapons and numbers than the Third Reich had. The U.S. Army invasion of Italy occurred at the same time forcing Germany to relocate troops south to defend Italy against Bob Dole and his army buddies.

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

The Russians/Soviets had better intelligence than the Germans about the opfor for the campaign and used trenches and minefields to force the nazis into kill zones. Russian T-34 tanks reliability and numbers countered new German panzers that were difficult to service in the field. The Ukraine war today has been funded by the western nations like France, Germany and England and until recently, the United States. They have provided weapons, intelligence and cash to the government of Ukraine to continue the war on the eastern front.

The United States finds itself once again in a comparable position of having the capacity to substantially influence the outcome of the conflict by choosing to support one side or the other by commission or omission. If the Trump administration simply halts all support to the government of Ukraine that will increase the Russian’s prospects of achieving its goals of recovering much of the land east of the Dnepro and creating a northern security zone that prevents Ukraine from being able to launch drones so easily to attack Moscow and other locations deep inside Russia.

It is difficult to say what the world would have become if the fascists had won the Eastern front. If the west defeats Russia through attrition over time, we may find out.


21 December 2025

Notes on the Ukraine War and Peace Prospects

 Apparently Russia won't recognize upcoming elections in Ukraine because it will exclude 12 million Ukrainians that moved to Russia when the war occurred (approximate numbers) and more living in other countries abroad. One gets the feeling that European leaders love the war more than life itself (lives of Ukrainians and Russians) and will continue the war with seized Russian assets paying the bill via a loan from Europe chained to the Russian assets) for another year or two believing that it costs Europe comparatively little and Russia so much that Europe can easily win a war of attrition over three or five more years.

Russia of course cannot unilaterally stop the war because that would enable Ukrainian reorganization and reinforcement and they would counter attack Russians that would become defenders along interior lines. Sun Tzu's art of war probably says that defending interior lines tends to be a losing proposition over time- I don't have the time to look that up now. Anyway with a unilateral Russian halt to the conflict Europeans would reinforce Ukraine and they would try to return to the 1991 boundaries set by Clinton and a stressed Boris Yeltsin. Russia would be in a far worse strategic position with a very swollen N.A.T.O. chomping on the bit at its front door.

Unless a peace agreement is reached directly with Russia keeping all of the Donbas and occupied areas of the present, and a mostly demilitarized Ukraine with some sort of free trade zone for the entire country on both East and Western portions, with sanctions ending universally and presently there seems little hope for peace and perhaps for human civilization as nuclear conflict is probably the bright light at the end of the tunnel at some point if the European team has its way.

17 December 2025

EU Chooses War Against Russia in Ukraine for 2026; Pres Trump Eyeballs Conflict With the Maduro Regime

 EU leaders meeting in Germany decided to fight with Russia in Ukraine with Ukrainians and agreed to provide billions more in weapons to the corrupt Ukrainian Government. Germany alone said it will send 11 billion dollars in weapons next year. Canada too-  chose to up the ante for World War Three and will send 30 million dollars in arms.

The borderlands known as Ukraine have been a bone of contention  with sekect Western European nations for centuries, Russia normally owns or administrates the region and many Russians live there. For Europe to own the borderlands in for Russia, and unacceptable hegemony presenting an avalanche level potential military, existentialist threat.

European belligerence is a normal consequence of EU and N.A.T.O. expansion after the end of the Cold War 1.0. Europe has already annexed N.A.T.O. to be its military force for the EU and is presently throwing it's weight around. It is possible to consider a future USA vs European NATO as a theoretical future possibility. As nuclear war is no longer unthinkable thanks to Europe, neither is that. The United States under the pragmatic Trump administration is withdrawing from support for the European driven war and has sought to bring peace to the senseless violence.

  Instead of making a meaningful effort for peace in Ukraine and in effect sharing the borderlands with Russia along the Dnepro River with an end to sanctions and Ukraine made into a free trade enterprise zone along environmental economic lines with the EU administering the Ukrainian half until a capable, non-corrupt government can be found for it, and Russia the Russian half that becomes part of Russia as long as the rivers run and radiation levels are below that which precludes the existence of human life, European war leaders have decided to make the year 2026 one of escalation for the crumbling Ukrainian shill. The EU has emerged as the main obstacle to peace and threat to incite World War Three.

The United States apparently will be busy engaged in some sort of conflict with the inimical, yippish government of Venezuela under the power of the Maduro regime that I suppose, the Trump administration wants to change if it cannot persuade the Maduro regime to return assets seized by the socialist-communist evolution of Hugo Chavez. President Trump for some reason likes oil companies and feels that as executive he need go  about recovering lost oil company assets taken forcibly by socialists . Maduro does seem as uninterested in alternative energy as President Trump. In regard to fuel preference the coming conflict is dino vs dino rather than mano y mano.

13 December 2025

European Leadership Has a 'Mine, Mine!' Approach to Stealing Russian Cash and Taking All of the Borderland from Russia

 The European Union has decided to freeze indefinitely Russia's funds in a European Clearing House that enabled pre-war financial transactions. They hope to use the resource to finance the war and perhaps rebuild the Ukraine (the borderlands) when the war is concluded in their favor. The plan may be known as the have their cake and eat it too approach to Eastward European military and political expansion into the borderlands with Russia. That was always a bad idea of course and may return post war adverse consequences for Europe's financial trust.

China and Russia each may develop a skeptical eye about placing finances with reach of Europeans in case some possible conflict breaks out. On the other hand, if China decides some day about military takeover of Taiwan it would know that Europe would freeze its assets held in Europe, unless perhaps, the sum is so large that Europeans would be afraid of making China unhappy and losing business and they might therefor choose to abstain from substantial adverse response to an invasion of Taiwan by China.

Russia has brought litigation against the EU for freezing its resources in a Russian court knowing that a European Court like the World Court would probably make a finding in Europe's favor. Even the world court is partisan realistically. The United States might appear as a safer place to invest for nations with politics antipathetic to Europe. If the Trump administration would unfreeze the assets of Russia it has and end sanctions, China and Russia might decide to invest more in the United States than Europe in the long term; perhaps China could build an intercity high speed rail service, or infrastructure for electric platforms around city grids that are free public transit platforms that would surpass present bus formats.

Russia is pragmatic as space development and might work with the private American sector to expedite lunar base infrastructure. Russians understand cold weather better than many Americans and that knowledge can work well even in the very cold and hot extremes of the Earth's moon. Certainly one cannot look to Europe for intelligent or pragmatic politics when they have the scent of land conquest in their nostrils. They cannot allow sharing of the borderlands (the Ukraine) under any circumstance. Europe's attitude is 'mine, mine!'

09 December 2025

Zelenski Rejects US Peace Plan; Pres. Trump Should End U.S. Sanctions on Russia

 European leaders seemed determined to advance their Ukraine conflict toward World War Three. They are confident they can use 180 billion dollars of frozen Russia investments to finance another year or two of war without U.S. support. That is a very dangerous trend and one that brings on prospect for world peace in the next couple of years.

Lemmings swear oaths before heading to the edge…safety in numbers.

With Russian forces already steadily, slowly advancing across the Donbas to recover their land lost to the Clinton era redistribution of Ukraine land from Russia to western powers, a revitalization of war sponsored by Europe’s EU forces will compel Russians to advance farther west and fight for recovery of all of Ukraine in general war, otherwise they would need to remain on interior lines of defense and seek some other way to discourage European financed and directed Ukrainian military assaults upon the Russian forces in the Donbas and very likely old Russia itself including Moscow.

With European lunatics running their corrupt puppet Zelenski the Ukraine war has an excellent chance for developing into a third world war. President Trump’s only apparently effective card to play to disincentivize the European led war upon Russia would be to totally end all U.S. sanctions on Russia. With Russia free to trade with the world and generate better income the EU war on Russia would have far less prospects for success. Something needs to be done to discourage Europe’s EU leaders from puffing up the conflict- yesterday Zelenski officially rejected the U.S. Peace plan after meeting with EU leaders in London.

Ending U.S. sanctions on Russia is a best case scenario for U.S. trade and economic futures. Normalizing relations with Russia and the BRIC nations would put the U.S. on the right side of the equation. Moving away from old Europe’s war on Russia and historical trait of eastward expansion through conflict would provide a competitive trade boost against the militaristic EU economy seeking to destroy itself through war with sugarplum dreams of atheistic glory in its thought.

08 December 2025

Europe's Big Three are Detached from Efficient Economic Realty on Ukraine Conflict

 Europe’s big three nations militarily; France, Germany and Britain are completely spaced on the Ukraine war and seek to drag it out. As regards the U.S. they are like a pack of dog’s President Trump was hired to walk (by Joe Biden) that want to go their own way and chase a rabbit for lunch. They have no idea about the wrongness of their course to head over a cliff like a pack of lemming-schnauzers

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8r3v5mmyp8o

They still have a fiction for themselves that Russia might attack Europe; they don’t remember that Russia vis the Soviet Union gave back half of Europe to the free world and sought peace. Russia simply wants it’s own security from N.A.T.O. expansion and to share the Ukraine it has usually owned before the Clinton era theft during a time of confusion and uncertainty for Russians.

Protracting the war is costly for everyone and the European leadership should be corrected in some way, if that is possible. Meanwhile President Trump should take the U.S. out of the war as he commendably has sought to accomplish, leaving peace in his wake.


01 December 2025

Europe's Military Attacking Russian Ships Globally

Unknown European powers have started a global wolfpack-style war sinking Russian oil tankers probably with an intention to damage Russian oil sales. Selling oil help Russia pay for its special military operation to recover land lost to the west during the 1991 carpet bagging era following the Soviet collapse.

Russian ships have been sunk in the Black Sea off the coast of Senegal, West Africa in recent days. That escalation to a global battle changes things significantly; risking Russian responses that could be attacks on England, France or Germany- the most likely perpetrators of the expansion of the theater of war.

With Russian military forces making slow, steady progress advancing toward the Dnepro River- a simple demarcation line to end the conflict, the Trump administration has sought to bring both sides to agreement on ending the war, yet the Western powers backing Ukraine have no intention of allowing peace to occur unless it is on their terms. Regardless of the fact that a neutral Ukraine with reduced exterior borders where Russia and the West could resume East-West trade and normal commerce would be best for all concerned, the corruption of Ukraine's government and surreptitious will of the Western European traditional powers to own all of Ukraine and intimidate Russia with military forces on Russia's border such that they support Ukraine's war efforts vociferously have continued the death machine of thousands locked into combat.

Peace with Russia can only occur with international recognition of a reduced Ukraine and Russia recovering its former Ukraine lands and a neutral, demilitarized Ukraine that poses no threat to East or West. Ukraine as the middle ground or borderland should recover quickly enough and prosper from international trade. The alternative of moving further down the road to global disaster is a reprehensible one. If Russia chooses to retaliate by sinking western ships arriving at European ports that alone could begin a collapse of the world economy and swift advance toward nuclear war. One feels that European leadership have their heads up their arses regarding the opportunity cost of pursuing the course of fomenting continued war instead of peace.

It may be that the rampant godless atheist trend of Europe away from faith has naturally brought the leaders to cluster into claves of violence and aggressive expansion Eastward toward Russia. They may feel entitled with natural exuberance such that developing hegemony over Russia and its vast natural resources is their right. U.S. Presidents have not, since the end of the Cold War, perhaps with the exception of President Trump, recalibrated their view and opinion of European military and political increase and unification, They tended to be blind to the implicit dangers of a very large, recrudescent European military that has a history of being the source of all global wars tamed only a little by the devastation of Europe in the two World Wars of the 20th century.





24 November 2025

Euros and Zelnski Rely on U.S. Chumpery to Continue the War in Ukraine Indefinitely

 Zelenski and European political war mongers think President Trump is a chump not to be taken seriously in regard to ending the Ukraine war. They expect to deface Trump's 28 point peace plan to their satisfaction and alter the points adding measures to the effect that Russia must capitulate and withdraw all forces from Ukraine or else.

The basic problem with securing peace quickly is that Euros reinforce Zelenski and each expect the U.S. leadership to be spineless sycophants providing full support for the war on Russia in Ukraine as was President Biden. President Biden provided political and military fellatio to Ukraine and Europe can’t believe President Trump won’t really continue those policies. Neither realize that the negotiation is largely between President Trump and Russia. The Europeans are interested, crazy, war mongering coaches for Ukraine and fans that whole-heartedly want the war to continue even if Ukraine is losing.

President Trump has it within his power to end the war himself simply by recognizing Russian ownership of Donbas and Crimea and ending sanctions on Russia with a promise from President Putin to stop the war at whatever military lines it has in combat contact with Ukraine if and whenever the Ukraine government does plead for peace. That is, Russia will not continue the fight over the Dnepro River just because Ukraine has agreed to quit fighting.

Without U.S. military support, intelligence and sanctions Ukraine will continue to lose the war- only faster. European perfidy relies on the N.A.T.O. treaty to snair the U.S.A. on the wrong side of a conflict with Russia over Ukraine at some point in the future I would think via clever, calculated, planning and trickery. After the Cold War, building up N.A.T.O. to such a large, unnecessary size that it would make the United States a junior partner obligated to do Europe's bidding was a foreseeable mistake. I noted that problem a decade or two ago. European leadership was always latent war mongers even when they were beaten down after W.W. 1 and 2. War is in their political genome.

European military forces of the E.U. always were a potential enemy of the United States that would need to be offset by an alliance with Russia. It hasn't reached that point yet. It is not reasonable to suppose that U.S. and E.U. political choices would always be in agreement. Wars can occur between powerful nations and armies sometimes. The potential change of allies to adversaries can happen quickly. Scaling back N.A.T.O. to a size that would not present a threat to the United States if it turned to the dark side of the force would rectify a problem that has increased the past three decades.

After W.W. 2 N.A.T.O. allies of the United States were not remotely as powerful as the U.S. military. That balance is changing; even with the encouragement of recent U.S. Presidents. Ending the Ukraine war and normalizing relations with Russia is good for the U.S.A. and Russia. The Euros say that land shouldn't be taken by force. Yet when Russia was so weak after the end of the Cold War and Ukraine so tempting for the west they took it en passant from Russia the rightful owner. Euros and N.A.T.O. had so much military force advantage they did not need to use force; still Ukraine was in effect taken by force from Russia the rightful owner. Sharing Ukraine with Russia is the only remedy to prevent continuing battle and needless killing. Russia knows it cannot get a fair hearing in any European 'World Court'. If the World Court judicial composition were switched to operations by BRIC nations every five years or so the verdicts probably would be different. Force de majeure is the only remedy when the judiciary is completely corrupt like a European based World Court that hasn't any legal authority over nations anyway.

22 November 2025

Zelensk Government Negotiates Like Saddam Hussein's Iraq

 Ukraine's Zelenski and the parliament remind me of the wise guy issues the U.S.A. had in negotiations for various matters with Sodom Hussein's Iraq. Ukraine is ostensibly an ally though one that primarily flies a skull and crossbones favored by England, Poland, France, Germany and a few other nations. The United States is the chump footing the bill for the Ukraine war and the host of corrupt politicians and business people making a fortune from the senseless conflict.

Zelenski's latest ploy is to ditch Pres. Trump's 28 point peace plan that Mr. Trump requires Zelenski to sign by the 27th of November or lose American military and intelligence contributions. 

The method to extend that deadline is his disavowal of his power as President of Ukraine that was extended during martial law to avoid elections and saying only the parliament has the power to make laws to enable peace negotiations to exist with Russia. The parliament probably isn't willing to negotiate or enable negotiations while the corrupt are profiting.

The Zelenski government can play a wise guy version of who's on first fairly well for a disingenuous neo-ally/nephew/shill of various powers that want to expand into former Russian lands like Ukraine. President Trump will probably need to let his deadline play out rather than continue an interminable succession of delays in ending the war. President Putin has already said the 28 point plan can form the basis for a peace settlement, albeit with some possible tweaking. It is a good deal for Russia and more than West Ukraine needs.