Building a Half Billion Dollar Plus Shipyard at Wrangell?

 

I asked A.I. about the context of building a half to three quarter billion dollar shipyard at Wrangell.

Gary- Do you think there is a market sufficient to invest in building a three quarter of a billion dollar ship repair facility at wrangell alaska?

A.I.– A $605 to $726 million shipyard in Wrangell faces major economic hurdles. A standalone commercial market alone is likely insufficient to justify this massive price tag, so the project’s viability depends on public-private partnerships, securing federal defense contracts, and capitalizing on the Coast Guard’s expanding Arctic operations. [1, 2, 3]

Key Market Variables

• Sky-High Costs: Full build-out estimates range from $605 million to $726 million. The project requires aggressive phasing to be digestible. [1]
• Target Customers: The proposed 500-foot shipyard relies heavily on securing contracts with the U.S. government, U.S. Navy, U.S. Coast Guard, and research vessels. Private commercial vessels (e.g., state ferries) alone cannot carry this level of capitalization. [1, 2, 3]
• Partner Backing: The City and Borough of Wrangell has established a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Seattle-based JAG Marine Group and Miami-based Pearlson & Pearlson to navigate port feasibility and secure state and federal funding. [1, 2, 3]
• Geopolitical Drivers: Proponents are pitching the facility to federal officials as vital to national security and Arctic patrol maintenance. [1, 2]

Actionable Information

• Review Project Proposals: Read the initial assessments on the Wrangell Economic Development page.
• Current Feasibility: Keep an eye on ongoing 30% design phase deliverables that will dictate long-term funding requirements. [1]

Gary- Can a population of 2000 people afford that sort of thing?

A.I. No. A local population of 2,100 people cannot afford a project of this scale through local taxes or municipal debt.

The project relies entirely on external funding, with the local community acting as a host rather than a financial backer.

The Funding Reality

• Zero Local Funding: Wrangell’s municipal budget cannot support a $700 million project. Local residents will not pay for the construction through property or sales taxes.
• Federal Defense Dollars: Proponents are targeting federal funding. This includes the Department of Defense, Department of Transportation (MARAD), and federal infrastructure grants.
• Private Capital: Private partners like JAG Marine Group are expected to bring external investment to cover commercial operational costs.
• State Support: The State of Alaska may provide economic development grants, as the facility would boost the regional maritime economy.

Local Risks and Impacts

• Infrastructure Strain: A massive shipyard brings hundreds of temporary construction workers and permanent contractors. A small town must upgrade its housing, utilities, and medical services to handle the influx.
• Economic Boom: If funded externally, the facility would create high-paying year-round jobs. This would diversify a local economy currently reliant on seafood and tourism.

To help evaluate if this project makes sense for the region, tell me what concerns you most:

• The environmental impact on the local waters?
• The potential boom-and-bust cycle for housing and schools?
• How it compares to competing shipyards in Seattle or Ketchikan?

Let me know what area you would like to explore next.

Gary- All three

A.I.-Building a massive $605M to $726M shipyard in a town of 2,100 people creates intense friction between economic opportunity and small-town stability. [1]

1. Environmental Impact on Local Waters

Heavy marine industrialization introduces severe localized environmental risks to Wrangell’s pristine waters. [1]

• Contaminants and Runoff: Large-scale ship repair involves hull blasting and painting. This releases toxic anti-fouling copper or tin paints, volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and microplastics directly adjacent to marine habitats. [1, 2, 3]
• Industrial Noise & Dredging: Operating a 38,000-ton lift and servicing 500-foot vessels generates significant underwater noise and light pollution. This can disrupt local marine mammals and migratory salmon corridors. [1, 2, 3, 4]
• The “Brownfield” Advantage: On the positive side, Wrangell plans to place this facility at the 6-Mile Mill property. Because this is a former timber mill site, it is already an altered industrial footprint rather than untouched, pristine coastline. [1, 2, 3]

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2. The Threat of a Boom-and-Bust Cycle

Bringing an estimated 150 permanent shipyard jobs—plus hundreds of transient construction workers—into a tiny community triggers a classic infrastructure shock. [, 2]

• The Housing Crisis: Wrangell already suffers from a severe housing shortage. Local officials note it is a “chicken and egg” problem; developers won’t build without guaranteed buyers, yet the workforce cannot arrive without housing. The borough is proactively designing 60-unit complexes at the old hospital site and expanding sub-divisions to get ahead of the crush. [1]
• Utility & School Strain: The influx will heavily tax local water systems, electricity grids, and medical clinics. While a population boost could save local schools from declining enrollment, a sudden exit if a major federal contract expires would leave the town holding massive debt for over-expanded infrastructure. [1, 2]

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3. Competition with Ketchikan and Seattle

Wrangell is entering a highly competitive and protective Pacific Northwest maritime market.

• The Ketchikan Rivalry/Alliance: Nearby Ketchikan already features a world-class shipyard owned by the state (AIDEA) and operated by the exact same company partnering with Wrangell: JAG Marine Group. JAG recently secured a $99.6M federal NOAA contract for Ketchikan. While JAG claims a Wrangell facility would “complement” Ketchikan by expanding overall Alaskan capacity, the two sites will inevitably compete for a limited pool of skilled labor and state resources. [1, 2]
• The Seattle Monopolies: Major vessel operators and the Alaska Marine Highway (state ferries) traditionally send their largest ships to massive, deeply entrenched shipyards in Seattle, Washington or Portland, Oregon. Wrangell’s advantage is geography—it is thousands of miles closer to the opening Arctic defense theater. However, convincing unions and private operators to move logistical hubs up to an isolated island community is a steep hill to climb. [1, 2, 3]

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Would you like to look closer at how the town plans to build housing for these workers, or examine the specific types of Coast Guard ships they are trying to attract? [1, 2, 3]

Gary– What are alternative businesses that might attract as much employment to wrangell

To match or exceed the job footprint of a major shipyard (roughly 150 permanent trades jobs), Wrangell has a few alternative pathways. Because the town wants year-round, high-wage, “blue-collar” industrial employment rather than seasonal or minimum-wage work, alternative solutions focus on leveraging Wrangell’s low utility costs, deepwater port, and existing natural assets. [1, 2, 3]

1. Expanded Marine Service & Haul-Out Center

Instead of building a $700M mega-shipyard for 500-foot federal vessels, Wrangell could expand its existing Wrangell Marine Service Center. [1, 2]

• The Concept: Focus on private commercial fishing fleets, tugboats, yachts, and regional barges.
• Employment Potential: Expanding the current haul-out yard and adding support trades (welding, machining, fiberglass repair, electrical) could support 50 to 100 year-round jobs.
• The Advantage: Much lower infrastructure costs, less environmental risk, and direct support for the local fishing fleet. [1, 2, 3]

2. High-Tech Green Data Centers

Wrangell has some of the lowest electrical rates in Alaska due to regional hydropower. Local officials have already discussed sharing the 6-Mile Mill site with data center infrastructure. [1, 2]

• The Concept: Partner with companies like Greensparc to build localized data centers cooled naturally by the Alaskan climate.
• Employment Potential: While the data centers themselves require few permanent staff, combining them with a renewable energy generation hub or tech manufacturing could bring 30 to 50 tech and maintenance jobs.
• The Advantage: Clean industry with a tiny physical and environmental footprint compared to heavy industrial ship repair. [1]

3. Healthcare Hub Expansion (SEARHC)

According to the Wrangell Economic Conditions Report, healthcare has already quietly overtaken government and seafood as Wrangell’s largest economic cornerstone. [1]

• The Concept: Formally establish Wrangell as a specialized, regional healthcare hub for Southeast Alaska, anchored by the Southeast Alaska Regional Health Consortium (SEARHC). [1, 2]
• Employment Potential: Healthcare already accounts for 171+ jobs and $15.2M in annual wages. Expanding long-term care facilities, specialized therapy, or regional medical training programs could easily add 50 to 70 high-paying, year-round positions. [1]
• The Advantage: Highly stable, high-wage jobs that naturally attract families and do not suffer from industrial “boom-and-bust” cycles. [1]

4. Advanced Seafood Processing & Mariculture

The traditional seafood sector is struggling with weak salmon returns, but ocean farming presents a major pivot. [1]

• The Concept: Scale up regional kelp and oyster mariculture alongside an automated, year-round value-added seafood processing plant (producing ready-to-eat products rather than just freezing raw fish). [1]
• Employment Potential: Transitioning from seasonal canning to year-round specialized processing and mariculture logistics could sustain 80 to 120 jobs.
• The Advantage: Strengthens Wrangell’s cultural identity and supports local fishermen while building an eco-friendly export market. [1]

5. Tourism and Waterfront Expansion

Wrangell is currently entering its strongest tourism period in two decades. [1]

• The Concept: The borough is actively trying to expand its waterfront by adding a second cruise dock to capture more boutique and mid-sized cruise ships. []
• Employment Potential: Tourism easily generates over 100 jobs, but they are heavily skewed toward the summer months. [1]
• The Advantage: Low capital costs for the town, but it fails to meet the borough’s stated goal of creating year-round, trades-based blue-collar employment. [1]

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If you were advising the town, would you prioritize expanding the stable healthcare sector or trying to revive the industrial waterfront with green tech and mariculture? [1]

Gary- I would pursue each

A.I.-Pursuing all five pathways simultaneously is a smart, balanced approach known as economic diversification. By spreading the town’s eggs across multiple baskets, Wrangell can build a resilient economy that avoids the vulnerability of a single-industry town.

Here is a roadmap for how Wrangell can coordinate these five alternative sectors without overextending its limited resources.

The Phased Diversification Plan

Phase 1: Immediate Growth (1-2 Years)

├── Expand SEARHC Healthcare Center 

└── Build Boutique Cruise Dock & Waterfront

│

Phase 2: Waterfront Shift (3-5 Years)

├── Expand Existing 300-Ton Marine Haul-Out

└── Launch 6-Mile Mill Kelp & Seafood Processing

│

Phase 3: High-Tech Future (5+ Years)

└── Install Hydropower Data Center at 6-Mile Mill

1. Phase 1: The Quick Wins (Years 1–2)

Focus first on the sectors that already have momentum and require the least amount of municipal debt.

• Healthcare Expansion: Partner closely with SEARHC to add specialized regional services (like elder care or physical therapy) to the new hospital facility. This brings immediate families and high-wage spending into the local economy.
• Waterfront Tourism: Complete the planned second cruise dock to capture the booming boutique cruise market. Use the immediate seasonal tax revenue to fund the next phases of infrastructure.

2. Phase 2: The Working Waterfront (Years 3–5)

Shift focus to the blue-collar, year-round trades by upgrading existing assets rather than building from scratch.

• The Marine Service Center: Instead of a $700M mega-lift, invest a fraction of that amount to upgrade Wrangell’s existing boatyard. Adding covered work bays and a slightly larger travel lift allows local vendors to capture regional fishing and tugboat maintenance year-round.
• Mariculture Hub: Utilize part of the 6-Mile Mill site for kelp and oyster processing facilities. This pairs perfectly with the marine service center, as kelp harvesting vessels will need local boatyard support.

3. Phase 3: The Green Tech Anchor (Years 5+)

Once the housing and utility infrastructure has stabilized from the growth in Phases 1 and 2, target the high-tech sector.

• Data Centers: Allocate the remaining footprint of the 6-Mile Mill site for climate-cooled data storage. By this time, the town’s upgraded hydropower grid will be ready to support the tech sector without raising electricity rates for local residents.

Balancing the Master Plan

By staggering these projects, Wrangell can grow its workforce incrementally—perhaps 30 to 40 new jobs at a time—rather than shocking the system with 150 jobs all at once. This gives local builders time to construct housing naturally and allows the school district to absorb new families smoothly.

To look into how the town can fund this multi-pronged approach, would you like to explore available federal infrastructure grants, or look at how the town is currently zoning the 6-Mile Mill site to accommodate both mariculture and tech?

Gary– Each

A.I.-Wrangell is already using a layered strategy, mapping out funding while carefully zoning the 40-acre, borough-owned 6-Mile Mill site to balance heavy industry, green technology, and mariculture. [1, 2]

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Part 1: How Wrangell is Zoning the 6-Mile Mill Site

Purchased by the borough for $2.5 million, the former timber mill is being divided into a co-location ecosystem rather than a single massive shipyard. [1, 2]

• The Shipyard & Freight Anchor: The borough approved a three-year lease with JAG Marine Group for the deepwater tidelands. This allows them to pursue shipyard feasibility while immediately establishing a new barge ramp and freight yard to improve regional shipping. [1, 2]
• The High-Tech Footprint: The Planning and Zoning Commission voted to recommend a lease to Greensparc to build a compact, small-scale data center on a slice of the 6-Mile property. [1, 2]
• The Power Grid Catch: Local zoning approval for tech has been highly debated. Because data centers consume significant power, residents are pushing for safeguards so the facility does not drive up utility rates or strain Wrangell’s Tyee Hydroelectric plant during extreme winter cold spells. [1, 2]
• The Mariculture Buffer: The remaining acreage is zoned for light industrial and maritime support, leaving a physical footprint available for localized kelp and oyster processing facilities that can share the upgraded dock space. [1]

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Part 2: The Federal Grant Playbook

Wrangell cannot fund this on its own, so local leaders are aggressively applying for external grants under an initiative titled “Wrangell’s Economic Revival: Anchoring the Future, Empowering the Region.” They are targeting distinct pools of federal money: [1]

Grant Type / Agency	Target Project Component	Why Wrangell Qualifies
EDA Disaster Supplemental	Industry Transformation Portfolio	Offsets regional economic losses from declining salmon returns and a shrinking traditional maritime sector.
MARAD PIDP(Port Infrastructure Development)	6-Mile Deep Water Port Infrastructure	Specifically funds the engineering and design phases to transform idle timber mills into active cargo hubs.
USDA Southeast Alaska Sustainability Strategy (SASS)	Mariculture & Local Food Systems	Provides millions in community-led funding to transition the Tongass region from old-growth logging to sustainable ocean farming.
Federal Transit / AMHS Funds	Passenger Waterfront & Second Cruise Dock	Captures federal infrastructure dollars meant to optimize multi-modal marine transport and regional transit hubs.

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Part 3: Progress Across the Alternative Sectors

Wrangell’s other key industries are moving forward independently of the 6-Mile site:

• Healthcare: The Southeast Alaska Regional Health Consortium (SEARHC) continues to be the town’s primary economic stabilizer. It generated $15.2 million in local wages and grew employment by over 50%, acting as the quiet cornerstone while seafood and timber fluctuated. [1, 2]
• Tourism: The town has approved a 40-year lease agreement with American Cruise Lines (ACL) to build and operate shared public-commercial passenger docking facilities. This infrastructure will directly support the town’s massive visitor spike—climbing from 45,000 cruise visitors to nearly 80,000 cruise visitors. [1, 2]

Would you like to explore how the town is managing the public pushback over the data center’s power usage, or examine the 30% design plans for the new freight barge ramp?

Tlingit Cultural Event (totem carry) at Wrangell Alaska

Tlingits toted a new memory stick to Totem Park today.

https://youtube.com/shorts/8OS8fTPQa9I?feature=share

https://youtube.com/shorts/8OS8fTPQa9I?feature=share

Remembering the Reagans, etc

 I used to spend a fair piece of time boating in S.E. Alaska. I saw several interesting vessels- one a stern steered boat with a large oar for a rudder, the sailing ship Lady Washington etc. I also saw former President Reagan's yacht near Wrangell as it passed on the way to town. I will recount that experience after mentioning briefly a pair of experiences myself- one on a skiff, to leave a chronological note.

For a few years when it was 32 my feet would turn black from cyanotic blood and I restored circulation by taking a hot shower-then the skin would turn back to pink or flesh color from a line above my ankle moving down eventually to my toes. It wasn't frostbite- it was something like trenchfoot that did it. I spent a day walking through deep water snow and creeks in combat boots. Comparable to keeping my feet in a bucket of ice and slushy water for a day. A couple days later they were swollen up like balloons and I had to get extra wide tennis shoes sizes to big for temporary use. I reinjured them in 2018 while bringing a skiff down from Juneau in October and nearly drowned crossing Taku Inlet. My boots had a leak and they stayed cold and wet for days. Then I returned to the shed and it was like my feet were on fire and hell for a week. I got snowed in and couldn't leave to go to a clinic in town. I made it eventually and got a drug that makes the brain not feel pain. My feet were nearly all recovered before that last injury.

https://suno.com/s/xWfqJoHuby5E4Rrg

Sometime around the Republican National convention of 1992 Ronald and Nancy Reagan yachted up the inside passage and put in at Wrangell.

https://suno.com/s/z2nno76Ttde4VdQ0

Ronald Reagan like seemed a tool of God, a man of peace and Christian- wise as a serpent yet gentle as a dove in a political ecosphere of vipers, and yet he seemed to be fading and looked under the weather. Nancy was on his arm and seemed healthy enough and to be reinforcing him as they walked along the sidewalk with a small entourage. Nancy was also an actress.

Ron looked at me as I was taking my last $100 from the bank when he walked past outside the bank window. He was wearing a wool sweater he had bought at Hickok's- a clothing store that opened shortly before his visit and closed not long after the Reagans left Wrangell. I had served as a reservist mostly for 6 years of his administration and that changed the way I looked at things perhaps. Reagan was taking heat for the Iran contra connection with Oliver North at the time and was perhaps getting away from the media spotlight in Alaska on a yachting sojourn. I thought I would help him out so I wrote an letter to an editor asking if Reagan had secretly been a communist -really counter-intuitive to what the public thought he had been. The premise was that he had been a Democrat and admired Franklin D Roosevelt when a young guy, and added several trillion dollars to the national debt as President (the debt excusable as a one-time thing in order to end the Cold War- no subsequent President should have followed that deficit spending example).

Shortly after that it was announced that he had Alzheimers and went into seclusion for the remainder of his days. I worked for a temporary agency at a construction site years later with a guy for a day that looked like Reagan's twin brother; he was a bricklayer. Nice guy. Interesting times. Maybe the Reagans used their acting skills to get some of their political work done.

Reagan was somewhat transparent- there is a lot of biographical stuff written about him. I think Nancy not so much- well I haven't read that. At that level the public persona needs to coincide with the private. Interesting thing I read that was somewhat biographical was a history by an insider of how Reagan de-escalated nuclear missile stocks with the Soviets. He was the only one who thought about that much in his administration- his goal was to eliminate all nuclear weapons. Everyone else in the government; and this continued into the start of the Bush administration, was aboard the traditional hawkish point of view. 

Reagan was a kind of voice crying in the wilderness in his own way and Gorbachev met him halfway. I suppose there is a secret history of Mikhail and his philosopher wife Reza that hasn't been written and never will be. I suspect that the Gorbachev's were the tip of an iceberg of high level insiders that wanted to end communism in Russia yet had to be rather careful covert and indirect to get that done because traditional, conservative communists would not tolerate that movement toward liberalization directly. 

https://suno.com/s/yL347Rks88vUjIqB Night Rises in Darkness

Presidents may have a lot of secret communications, methods and means perhaps unknown to history. Heck, I thought I saw Bill Clinton and Monica Lewinsky in a ferry terminal parking lot in Juneau in 1994 I believe it was. She had on a fishnet sweater kind of thing over a t-shirt and asked if I had change for a dollar so she could use a pay phone to call a taxi- She said 'I've got to get Randy home'. Bill was dressed casually like a regular grunge Alaskan, yet wearing a very large gold star like a sheriff badge some place down south that no one in Juneau wears anything vaguely resembling it, and appeared to be drunkish. Secrets people keep lol Everyone has seen celebrities though at some time. I did see Sean Connery at the Royal Sonesta Hotel in New Orleans at 2 in the morning getting out of a limousine in the parking garage where I was cleaning the gutter as a temporary over night worker.

A Reply to Effort for New Logging in the Tongass

 I observed tree growth facts from the decades of living in the forest reasonably well. Muskeg areas, peripherals spaces and well-drained slopes for comparative purposes. I saw the different orders of appearance of repopulating with trees , in a manner of speaking pine, then red cedar, sometimes yellow, spruce and the two kinds of hemlock with the late arrival of fir that occurs in the different kinds of drainage areas. I know that wolves don't like to share space with humans because people walking about in crunchy snow interferes with deer hunting. Rowing between Prince Rupert and Juneau one can compare the areas with real old growth from so much regrowth over the past century and human effects of development from roads and boats. The ecosystem is a contiguous fact with one thing- like barge and other boat traffic leaving influences in their wake. Pea plants grow along the shore in various places as do tall feral grains. Deciduous trees crowding in along the beach aren’t found in the interior.

People degrade the environment rather than improve it. They accelerate entropy. That's why wildlife declines, fishing collapses, etc. Puget Sound and the Willamette Valley are laboratory examples for the destruction of Alaskan environmental health. Washington and Oregon achieved that long ago. Without conservation and new ways of using theoretically sustainable resources the system tends to collapse. Maybe A.I. will find an optimal way to use sustainable resources someday that won't harm human prospects on Earth.

There are several stumps from logging in the Mill Creek days that remain- what 120 year old stumps of very large size. One can see what has grown around them in the time passed, is not too large. A hundred-twenty year old tree is what- two and a half or three feet in diameter? It is the concatenated affect of human work degrading-never improving the ecosystem is the problem. nature does not recover or evolve nearly so quickly. There is plastic on beaches from Wrangell to Farragut Bay where there is some Older growth forest rather nice to walk through. Wild forests are a major sink absorbing much CO2 and filtering out other impacts of human exploitation of the ecosystem. As the wild Earth vestiges perish and the ecosphere is treated as a farm there are a lot of subtle harmful losses of ecosystem services adversely affecting human prospects on Earth. People are not bright enough to manage the ecosphere themselves yet- God's provisioning of a healthy supportive ecosphere should be respected rather than erased.

Tourism is also a natural resource. Logging adversely impacts it as people don't spend thousands to see logging cuts. Long ago I thought of the northward exodus of people from California to Oregon, Washington, Montana and Alaska. Resumption of large scale logging will probably stimulate more destruction of the S.E. ecosystem and that will bring development of more roads and housing. Hundreds of thousands of aliens may move north too for cheap labor when Trump is gone and Democrats resume their policies. I believe forest conservation is the best way to keep S.E. Alaska somewhat wild. Not a lot of wild remains in the U.S.A.; people favor slaughtering it. Then the fishing gets even worse- https://www.udio.com/songs/m2Ew6wpxksuzVEJ9dXTTju

-There were more comments and then the inevitable personal attacks started. I wrote the following in reply to one.

 I simply expressed my dissent on logging. Ecospheric destruction seems like a low-IQ kind of venture in the present situation on Earth. On public issues and matters of public governance everyone has a right to provide their opinion. That is a part of democracy that the nation fails without. The strength of western civilization is in the diversity of opinion. People listen to themselves and if they choose, learn the opinions of others; sapere aude. 

Anyone with some education ought to not be silent and let the bottom of the barrel dominate things without anyone saying bad ideas are bad. You may regard political free expression as hypocritical. So might the Klan, fascists of various sorts and organized crime. Democrats in social media often make personal attacks on people they don't identify as one of their own kind rather than address issues. I have other writing to do yet will defend myself so long as people attack even on onerous subjects. A certain segment of Wrangell is intolerant of political pluralism in regard to opinions. They keep running on forever if someone posts something they don't like. Everyone who lives in the borough should expect some measure of fiduciary equality of interest and resource investment by the city.

https://iccinet.org/arctic-sea-ice-sets-record-low-maximum-extent/#:~:text=NSIDC%20has%20announced%20that%20on,occurred%20over%20the%20past%20decade.

AI Changes on a Small Town

Since 1990 I lived much of the time in a small Alaska town where the logging mill that was the major employer closed down a year or two later. The population hasn’t increased since the logging mostly stopped. World population is right and a half billion. Wrangell has around 2000 people. It is located in America’s last great coastal forest. Ever year young workers leave, yet dome wildlife recovers while fishing declines. AI will probably affect human conservation practices.

AI will make it more difficult for writers too. AI will soon write custom novels for anyone with an app the way it’s going, as if it were making a custom pizza. Musk said there may be 10 billion robots within 20 or 30 years. There is supposed to be a super AI upgrade next. Trump has that 500 billion dollar Stargate AI project going. Who knows where that will lead?

I would guess that traditional ponzinomics where population grows and increases resource consumption so the population can stay working age will be replaced by smart robot workers while the human population ages and decreases in number to some ecologically sustainable level.

Lots of changes ahead if WW 3 doesn’t happen. Wrangell may be lucky enough to just observe the changes for some time. It’s funny how science fiction is becoming fact.

I didn’t use FB’s AI grammar rewrite version in this comment. That version said Wrangell can observe and adapt to the changes. Fait accompli I guess.