1/5/20

Iraq is Trying to Build a Shi'a Theocracy?

When Iraq's legislature passed a bill requesting the end of U.S. military forces in the country recently the problems of a divided sectarian state emerged; the Shi’a Sunni divide shapes Iraq's political landscape. So a quick review of the way things are is in order.

The present Iraqi Prime Minister; dil Abdul-Mahdi al-Muntafiki, is Shi'a and formerly a leader of an Iran-based Shi'a organization. The last time there was a Sunni leader with a regime that lasted for a while was the era of Dictator Saddam Hussein. Interestingly he was a member of the Baath Party invented in Syria. With the Sunni being a minority in Iraq it takes a dictator to rule. The Shi'a simply vote for Shi'a and work a de facto theocratic village form of government.

It is plain that the United States cannot withdraw its military forces because of the infrequent need to intervene for various reasons. When Saddam Hussein was in power and had his way during the food for oil U.N. sanctions era 50,000 Iraqis died annually because of privations forced on them by the Dictator. Non-intervention was o.k. with Democrats and the U.N. because of the corrupt kickbacks to select Euro politicians yet unacceptable to people of conscience. Ending the regime of the Dictator was necessary. Imposing democracy was nearly impossible because of the fundamental sectarian divide. A civil war in Iraq followed helped along by Iran for sectarian reasons. When the U.S. withdrew its forces under President Obama Isis grew.

The United States failed to support its Kurdish allies recently and that in turn weakens their position in Iraq for they too are Sunni. That state emboldens the Shi'a that rightly demands withdrawal of all U.S. military because they have Iran at their back. Kickbacks and reciprocity to Iraq leaders help them view the two states practically as one. Americans talk about war with Iran because of the nuclear weapons program in that country and site numerous post-1979 reasons for the war aided by historical amnesia pre-1979.

Before 1979 the United States supported the Shah of Iran whom they had given dictatorial power to through a 1953 coup against the Shi'a Prime Minister. When the U.S. chose to install and reinforce a de facto Dictator of Iran called the Shah for 25 years it lost a lot of friends in Iran. Because the United States has usually had daft political leadership concerning the history of the region (and of Russia) since then the situation has gotten worse. What would be helpful would be American political recognition of the true pre-1979 history of Iranian-American relations; so long as American leadership has bad faith attitudes toward real rather than amnesiac history of Iranian-American relations the process of repairing relations will not start. The Bush administration plans for post-war reconstruction of Iraq demonstrated the usual U.S. incompetence at understanding history of the region. Probably that hasn't changed much.

Certainly the Obama administration was rash at giving Iran a treaty that effectively allowed them 20 years of undisturbed infrastructure building and research for nuclear weapons and then after 25 years the freedom to develop nuclear weapons. What was lacking from the Obama method was public explanation to the world that the U.S. recognized the pre-1979 history of Iranian-American political relations to clear the air of gross misunderstandings.

So what should the U.S. do now? Squaring away the Kurds with greater security and autonomous real estate in Syria and Iraq if not Turkey would be a good idea for it is very probable that the United States will look to them again as proxy warriors and peace police in the area. Yet President Trump retreated from the effort, perhaps for reasons unknown, and let the Kurds return to a state of greater political insecurity if not immediate jeopardy with Turkey swelling even to consider landing troops in Libya as if they were Mussolini’s fascist forces seeking to expand the lost empire in North Africa.

1/4/20

Should Pres Trump Have Told Rep. Adam Schiff About Soleimani Plan First?

Democrats are complaining about President Trump ordering a mission to execute the number one Iranian terrorist who was apparently in Iraq to foment attacks on Americans, without telling the Congress, such as House Intelligence Chairman Rep Adam Schiff about the mission or asked for permission first. 

Evidently Democrats feel that Rep. Schiff or Senator Schumer should have been given the chance to put their foot down and veto the reckless American adventurism or other Trump ventures that could have been done with collusion from Russians or simply as  distractions from the effort to defend U.S. national security through the pivotal impeachment process. There might have been someone from the National Security Council that overheard a call where President Trump was expecting a quid pro quo from some foreign leader if he did or din't act to execute Iran's top terrorist organizer. Without Rep. Schiff's informant staff being informed we will never know.

Iran has a three party historical course of political evolution that need be carefully balanced. When the civilian sector and populism had finally taken charge with an elected parliament and prime minister, overcoming monarchy and military the United States staged a coup to restore the absolute monarchy. Iranians of the popular front led by radical Muslims have tended toward antipathy toward the United States since. They have little reason to trust the United States with its proven record of snuffing their elected government when it arises to restore capitalist-friendly autocrats.

When the military sector works with either royals or radical clerics, who have substantial popular support, it is very difficult in the trialectical process to bring up cherries for a civilian led jackpot in the political evolution. Each time there is a new alignment the United States tends to apply counter-force like a large log roller spinning in an opposite direction on the log from the new Iranian political rolling champion at that makes it tough for Iranians. 

While Iran poses threats to the Middle East and searches for ways to annihilate Sunni political power and presents threats to Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United States it would be useful to keep the large picture in mind of trying to help Iran balance it's one-armed bandit of political fortune on the civilian political winning cherries of jackpot. Iran like most nations hasn't the circumstantial chance to simply seek its own gyroscopic civilian-led upright leadership as it might have in the past with a paucity of global powers jostling its policies about. The natural selection tends to be toward the military-clerical complex.

Post-Soviet Russia was also challenged to move from its traditional three-part balance of power between the KGB, military and communist party to a peaceful yet strong civilian led government. In a sense that is what Present Putin with his Presidential super-powers represents; it could have been worse. Certainly the Democrat Party has worked very hard to poison U.S. relations with Russia.

1/3/20

Trophy Kill of Gen Soleimani Spurs Media Feeding Frenzy

The drone missile killing of Iran's top fanatic terrorist was reported first perhaps, by the BBC last night with several other networks following along in the usual feeding frenzy to treat the story from one biased perspective or another.  Democrats of course lined up at NBC, CNN, U.S.A. Today and other party organs to spin the sudden trophy quality demise of the head of the Quds force of snake-head biters from a view pro or antipathetic to the Trump administration action. 

I wasn't going to say anything about the military action, yet listening to the coverage thought it might be useful to make an objective opinion. The administration's action will drive up the price of oil and be of service to various red states' government's revenue streams.

The decision of an Iranian general to visit Iraq and coordinate a proxy attack on the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad was breath-takingly dumb of course. He may have felt that Iraq was already in-the-bag for Iranian hegemonic ambitions.


It is worth remembering that it was the Eisenhower administration that started the Iranian-American problems when it sponsored a coup to get rid of the democratic government and install an Emperor. The Emperor's secret police force tortured or stalked Iranians around the globe and he was a tool of the United States. The Shah also had goals to rule the Middle East not unlike those of the silly Shi'a leadership of Iran. 

Though the original sin of the coup against Prime Minister Mossadegh occurred in 1953 and a lot of water and hate has passed under the historical bridge since, when U.S. policy makers think about Iran they should be aware that the United States started the popular conflict and as a leading dance partner it should also be the one to end it. Ending the conflict may be difficult because of the idiocy of the broadcast media that reports what other people do and follows up with a politically correct narrative to reinforce their position; they usually have wrong points of view on numerous topics and politicians tend to reinforce the idiocy.

Before the Shah Iran had brought in an American economic adviser and the bi-lateral relations were actually good. Then Iran nationalized the oil fields that were effectively owned by the British in order to get some of the profit too- that was the way people renegotiated contracts or agreements in the era, and the Eisenhower administration worried about the domino theory prevalent in the 1950s regarding communism pre-emptively intervened with the coup to nip their fear of a communist takeover in the bud. That policy decision is still costing the United States today and may cost even more in the future.

With a radicalized Iran (paradoxically it was western leftists who supported the Iranian revolution to get rid of the Shaw before Ayatollah Khomeini took power and swiftly purged the left) it may be challenging to end the conflict in a peaceable way though that is highly desirable. Iran should lose its nuclear weapons program. The United States hasn't any need for anything in the ancient nation-kingdom against peace since Iran is way off the mainstream course of modern trade and commerce; it hasn't got good Pacific, Atlantic or even Mediterranean waterfront property. Iran's oil is also a declining commodity with the major automakers moving full ahead into electric cars and physicists developing better batteries, solar panels, super conductors and a wealth of micro-circuit technology.

Though it was a good idea to end the activities of General Soleimani it would be a better thing to find some way to normalize relations with the anti-communist Iranian Muslim Republic.

1/1/20

Limits of U.S. Political Intelligence Emerged After End of the Cold War

Some Americans are unhappy at the necessity to relitigate the end of the Cold War. The end was res judicata and stare decisis, and then the Democrats stepped in to restructure and renew conflict with Russia as a proxy for Cold War. One must win the peace instead of backsliding into Cold War. President Clinton bungled the restructuring work with Boris Yeltsin; a feminine C.I.S. or sis was made while the Ukraine and Crimea were wrested from the weak sister Russia. Eventually Yeltsin anointed Vladimir Putin and a stronger Russia emerged.

After the end of the Cold War the most apparent lesson one may learn concerning bi-lateral U.S.-Russian relations is the limit of U.S. political intelligence and the failure to adapt. President Reagan experienced shock and resistance in his administration when he sought to eliminate all U.S. and Soviet nuclear weapons. Democrats today are about as anti-Russian as were old-line anti-Soviet political warriors. They have shown an inability to adapt or even to recognize the serious effort Russia put into reform and transition toward democracy and free enterprise. After a few more comments I will repost a paper I wrote concerning the Russian Super-Presidential powers. The next President after Vladimir Putin will inherit those powers.

The Russian Super-Presidency emerged something like the way war-time powers of Lincoln or F.D.R. emerged to address critical domestic and foreign issues. President Putin seems occasionally amused by the U.S. political failure to recognize or even support the substantial changes Russia has gone through to try to build a new nation dedicated to the proposition that all men and women are created equal and are deserving of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness with an equal say in government through democracy. In order to reform and construct existing institution in Russia and to keep the peace emergency powers of the President became codified. Some day perhaps those powers will be reformed and reduced too.

The fundamental errors the U.S.A. has made about Russia involve a failure to accurate understand Russian and European history the past thousand years. Half of the Ukraine with the border on the Dnepr River and the Crimea belonging to Russia were fundamental historical requisites for the Russian state separated from the Soviet Union. Ambitions for land fueled by Western Europe made that a bone of contention worthy of reigniting the Cold War. The policy has driven the Russians to stronger relations with foreign nations somewhat antipathetic to U.S. international interests. The short-sighted and greedy policy has wrought significant damage to U.S. economic and environmental interests of the Arctic region too.

For the New Year it would be good if the U.S. political establishment developed more competence in Russian-American relations and recognition of historical and political geographic interests. Russia as an economic and military ally brings synergy toward positive resolution of numerous world conflicts. Adverse relations with Russia fuel the fires of a constellation of conflicts.

Russia and Super-Presidency; Evolving Constitution and Economics
August 16, 2018

The Super-presidency arose after the constitutional crisis between President Yeltsin and the Supreme Soviet in 1993. Yeltsin dismissed the Soviet who refused to leave. The matter was settled by armed conflict. The sole surviving institution author; the President made resolutions that formed the basis of a new constitution and set the parameters for the existence of the new legislative body, the Duma. 

The President had extraordinary powers. Acting in the role of Caesar and James Madison simultaneously, President Yeltsin had to create a new state government within an existing advanced society, rather than for a frontier society as the author of the U.S. Constitution was able to accomplish with almost unanimous support from his peers.

 Yeltsin had to get support from certain parties with real power such as rural governors and oligarchs and that led to some corruption. Yeltsin began a work of reform in process and trusted in Vladimir Putin to continue the legacy of building a new nation, conceived in liberty and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal and the chief guardian of the state somewhat more so than others.

https://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/keynew.htm Polity IV Country Report 2009-2010
https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/super-presidential-risks-and-opportunities-in-russia/
https://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/keynew.htm Polity IV Country Report 2009-2010

https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/super-presidential-risks-and-opportunities-in-russia/
On the Federal Organs of Power during the Transitional Period
Polozhenie ‘O federal’nykh organakh vlasti na perekhodnyi period’ (Resolution “On the Federal Organs of Power during the Transitional Period”),” in Iz istorii sozdania konstitutsii Rossiiskoi Federatsii, vol. 4/3, 461-466.

My general view of the Russian government challenges since 1998...

Russia since the 1998 financial crisis and default has only slowly yet somewhat steadily moved toward reform such that a market economy prevails. It was not so many years ago that Vladimir Putin ended the oligarch domination of the economy and domination of former Soviet assets that they had taken much of. That order of oligarch power was regarded as an unfair distribution of wealth, yet was left somewhat as it was. The economy moved toward liberalization sometimes with substantial state investment and stimulation.

The process was advanced by the rise in world oil prices in the 2000s that continued until the crash following fracking of old oil fields to renew supply. A surfeit of world oil production made oil dependent states lose much revenue. Alaska in the United States faced a government budget crisis and Russia too lost nearly half of its GDP.

If bad actors are targeted, the principle of mass punishment should not target the innocent too. The U.S. should encourage Russia to continue developing a market economy along sound ecological economic principles rather than provide mass punishment for making Crimea a ninth federal district.
Even so Russia continued a slower advance toward a market economy though the state held some major banks and oil companies. It began an income tax of a modest scale though it had difficulty collecting that. Russia faced many internal and external challenges before the regime of foreign sanctions began to appear for international contention to permanently wrest away the Ukraine and Crimea from Russia.

The second largest party in Russia is still the communist party. The United Russia party- by far the largest, is basically a coalition of four formerly separate parties that joined to beat the communists. The economic and social dynamics of economic reform is occurring concurrent with reform of government, and eventually constitutional structures, and stimulation of business and new infrastructure development. All of that is challenging and expensive. While the United States and Europe tend to place themselves into a belligerent and adversarial as possible position comprising something of a threat to Russian security.

My concern is that the sanctions and hostile external relationship with Russia will retard the growth of Russia as a market economy and in the long run solidify less than free enterprise elements in Russia.

Apparently Russians have a trust in state run media and state ownership of business because of historical reasons that lie in the fact that authoritarian or Tsarist government were the fact of Russia for 1000 years. Only since the end of the Cold War has Russia had a pluralist government, although a multi-party Duma/congress existed briefly, shortly before the Bolshevik takeover to end that and the tsar.

Ronald Reagan had a policy of constructive engagement with South Africa and that led to the DeClerk government and end of apartheid. Reagan also ended the Cold War along with President Gorbachev in part because of hi affable character engendering trust. The United States should think deeply about its reckless sanctions on Russia, since they may harm U.S. interests more than Russian, in the long run.

Hate Crimes, Violence, Homicides, Media Sensationalism and Actual Facts

There is a lot of media reporting of hate crimes against various religions. Maybe the devil is particularly motivated or interested in attacking Christians, Jews, Muslims and theists in general- its difficult to know. What can be known are various statistical surveys of hate crime homicides and who the victims are.

Homeless people are by far the number one group homicide victims and the number is rising. In a recent year 155 homeless people were killed by hateful of the homeless, non-homeless tressed individuals usually under the age of 25. All other victims of homicide hate crime added together was just 75. In a nation of 320 million souls, and considering the fact that there are far fewer homeless people than blacks, Jews, white males, queers, Buddhists, Muslims and so forth (actually fewer than one million homeless Americans), the number is alarmingly high.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_the_United_States#Crime_victimology   

Ordinarily people have many disparaging things to say about the homeless. Even in the California homelessness debacle the comparative violence against Jews situation is trivial (although no violence is trivial). There are just about 7 million Jews in the United States and because some have a different appearance in dress, and because some are prosperous and live and worship near slums or dangerous minority populated areas they become easy targets of hate for the simple minded. Of course the liberal media does nothing to discourage the degradation of conservative religious beliefs as pro-atheist promoters of anti-faith atheism, homosexuality, abortion, legal dope and etc. Responsible prosperous Jewish synagogues tend to be frontier clusters in a political era where non-traditional and alien mass migration illegally and cultural values thrown together in a melting pot with clashes inevitable and a foreign non-melting Hispanic culture increasing in size without a substantial Jewish prosyletized cadre of acolytes. So some rudeness toward the prosperous strange Jews-especially from the urban black proletariat with a higher crime rate, lower education level, more gang violence etc occurs- it is not too significant in comparison to the crimes against the homeless. Maybe Jews are one group that does not persecute the homeless yet most of the others find some way to excrete perpetrators of violence even if just a few.

Homosexuals in a given year experience perhaps 1700 violent hate crimes (not murders) and that statistically isn't high since there are 11 million declared homosexuals in the U.S.A. and probably more. It would be worth research to discover if the 1700 queer victims of hate crimes of violence were declared homosexuals or simply behavioral ones. 

The group with the highest number of hate crimes is black Americans. The reasons for that are well known and an evolving condition of U.S. history as the melting pot of solid black is far more influential upon the other colors in the mess. Toleration of race should be simpler to stabilize in the long run than cultural differences such as Islam and Hispanic culture as race can be non-ideological an non-cultural.

Epistemology and Certainty-comment 1-2020

With the study of epistemology and logic one should develop a capacity of awareness concerning certainty and uncertainty that keeps one from attributing certainty beyond a given level of probability, generally. Some forms of opinion are not falsifiable because of the limits of human knowledge, so one may be certain to the limits of knowledge concerning propositions regarding God, cosmology, quantum cosmology, what dimensions really are (and how many can actually exist without actually having any substance, etc. without being wrong even if they were incorrect. One expects opinion to have a certain value function and if it serves that purpose it has fulfilled its role. 

Dallas Cowboys Have One Good Coaching Choice

The Dallas Cowboys are expected to make a coaching change because of their inability to go very far in the playoffs the past decade. There is one practical college football coach who deserves a shot leading the Cowboys; Coach Mike Leach of Washington State and Texas Tech. A winner every place he has gone, and familiar with the Tech pass game that was worked successfully at Washington State too, Mike Leach probably could bring the Texas Tech style passing game- something with offense- to the under-achieving Dallas Cowboys.

Jacksonville is another possible landing spot for coach Leach; Jaguar 6th round draft choice quarterback Gardner Minchew's college coach was Mike Leach.

Taking a problem team with long-term playoff malaise from its underachieving torpor, and taking a team without the advantages of the big-time teams to win amidst the more advantaged teams is well within Mike Leach's historical record capability. The Dallas Cowboys are not a poor disadvantaged team of course. It would be interesting to see the results if Coach Leach ran rich a while.

12/31/19

A Pair of Concluding Unscientific Postscripts for 2019

Happy New Year-

The Question; What is Self?

Self as a word has an old German version like selb, yet I would think self is uncomplicated etymologically and is something like cell- the cel(f) or sel(f) is just the mine(d) associated with the cell (like a brain, prison space or whatever. Self is a word describing (self) awareness location. The word pre-exists by centuries any kind of neurological science or even very accurate philosophical analysis concerning what it is made of. The Latin word for self is 'sui'. Given a couple of millennia that's reasonably close.

Bruno Snell wrote a good book called The Greek Origins of European Thought. He related some of the etymology of language one can discern in ancient Greek. He said that verbs describing actions and events commonly experienced evolved into nouns as an ossification. For example, the action of skidding something might become an eponym for a thing called a skid. I would guess that self evolved the same way as mine or mind and was evolved from practical use by non-philosophers.

On the Question; Why did Jesus reprove one who called him 'Good Master'?

One might actually look at Mark 10:17-18 where the scripture is found. 
17"And when he was gone forth into the way, there came one running, and kneeled to him, and asked him, Good Master, what shall I do that I may inherit eternal life?" 18"And Jesus said unto him, Why callest thou me good? there is none good but one, that is, God."

The guy asking the question was speaking to Jesus as a genre of teachers- a "good master". Elsewhere Jesus said to call no one teacher for one has one in heaven, and to call no man father, for God is the father. So Jesus has said in three different circumstances something of an instruction or correction on related topics. He pointed to God instead of mankind in all three instances. 

What may have been a matter of timing directing the public to God, including himself, before the public actually knew he was God. The average soul of that day, and especially the Jews, had no idea about the  triune nature of God. Like the wine commercial, Jesus would release no wine before its appropriate time; and there was a schedule leading to the cross to follow. Mark 8: "27 And Jesus went out, and his disciples, into the towns of Caesarea Philippi: and by the way he asked his disciples, saying unto them, Whom do men say that I am?

28 And they answered, John the Baptist; but some say, Elias; and others, One of the prophets."


Make Law Against Ecoside? - Jane Fonda Might Agree

Ecoside is a terrible thing to work. Destroying species and life on Earth in a health form and quantity happens by degrees. In the Tongass coastal forest of S.E. Alaska evil-doers have got the President's ear to support logging in the only national forest the nation has. In fact the Tongass is the shoreline greenery beyond which is about the only substantial glacier field in North America. Building roads for loggers requires overthrowing the roadless rule prevailing their now. While it is reasonable to build roads in the small cities of the region it is silly to attack the coastal rain forest and allow a legion of loggers, hunters and fossil fuel vehicles access toward contributing meaningfully to planetary ecoside.

probably there should be some national and international laws against acts of ecoside. Those would be acts that contribute substantially to the degradation of the ecosphere, and allowing a spaghetti field of logging roads and further assault on the final lower latitude (comparatively) glacial field of large scale is plain dumb. The President is a New Yorker who just studies economic flow and velocity charts for materials, however ecoside scale activities need be exceptions to the rule of ignorable externalities to profit.

The Congress should get done with the impeachment fiasco and work to defend the roadless rule right away before proceeding to make anti-ecoside legislation and define what qualifies as an act contributing to ecoside and mass extinction of the Holocene era.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/voices/2019/12/31/jane-fonda-friday-fire-drill-tongass-alaska-logging-trump-column/2774414001/?fbclid=IwAR2Dnc0F_Kgdy16x9B0ctgMg_AjIxXaQW1JVWRbsg6wgFbnMQ5pN88wvDsQ

12/30/19

Closed Universe Theory Returns


The cosmology of most of the 20th century had just three basic shapes possible for the Universe; open, closed and static. The stationary theory appealed to Einstein before his general theory of relativity blew it up. Einstein liked the stationary Universe paradigm and an anti-Bohr view of quantum mechanics.


For the latter half of the 20th century, especially after the Hoyle hypothesis of a stationary Universe with new material being injected into it through some unknown cause faded, an open Universe was the prevailing paradigm for cosmology. The Universe was thought to be open and expanding forever. Now a new and solid interpretation of the Cosmic Microwave Background radiation has breathed new life into the Universe as a closed structure where a straight line go far enough into space returns to its point of origin in a vast loop. That is what people thought of a closed Universe in the 1950s and 1960s and how it is in the new research.  


https://www.livescience.com/universe-may-be-curved.html

In order to eliminate quantum uncertainty and the all-possible-worldlines before observation paradigm of the Copenhagen interpretation, a Multiverse with all possible positions for every possible particle could exist enabling the entire Multiverse to be static in a sense not usually provided. There could be an infinite number of Universes in each possible stage of its being in an infinite number of variations of infinite universes too.

It may be simpler to conjecture that the mind of God is infinite in all possible ways and that might include His paradigm for the quantity of Universes. Each Universe may be an apparent actualization of thought from God in relativistic form with particle-waves. A static Multiverse or one particular closed Universe that returns to a big crunch could transform in some way to a terminal condition of etherialized particles-mass-energy merging with space-time for-itself like a black hole naked singularity evaporating into extra-dimensions as virtual particles.

Imperfect Character is Universal

The question of why anything exists rather than nothing was a question that Plotinus considered in The Enneads. Why would The One order anyt...