Showing posts with label Iran. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iran. Show all posts

22 June 2025

China Has Made Iran Its Client

China has deployed air surveillance for western aircraft and missile ships to the Persian Gulf to support the troubled Shi'a fundamentalist, theocratic government. Its also sending missiles and other weapons as the communists found willing clients in Iran.

Iran overplayed its hand against the USA and Israel and that prompted the Dragon to enter the conflict as a belligerent. It may believe that its ships are immune to being sunk. It may view their loss as an excuse to create a general war wherein they could capture Taiwan.

 Russia has its hands full in Ukraine, so NATO mobilization in Ukraine and Iran are distinct prospects if a general, no-nuclearđź‘‘war breaks out with limited objectives. That is the west may view Putin's claim on all of Ukraine and Chinese military expansion into the Middle East as preludes to war or at least a grab for global hegemony, if not Armageddon as Iranian 12ers might hope for a long with select Christian fundamentalist pre-tribbers. China should recall its ships rather than stick the out there hoping for a limited World War Three to start.

China has long supply lines to Iran and no clear path to bringing reinforcements while Russia would need to keep its own homeland secure. Russia may not regard a future role as puppet of China as an ideal path to take, and could choose to let Iran become the sole nephew of the neo-communists, atheist Chinese leadership.

 Iranian hatred of Israel is a strange thing; they would have been better off simply having a defense force as Japan and forgetting the nuclear war that only leads to mass destruction and death. Theoretically they could resolve their differences with the west instantly by forgoing nuclear weapons and asking the west for help.

 The west could have avoided the Ukraine war with realpolitik sharing East Ukraine with Russia and stopping NATO expansion Eastward toward Moscow.  A lot of money and lives have been lost because of an excess of greed, pride and power.

China, if recognizing Taiwan independence would have gained Taiwanese and western trust and better economic relations. Except for so much pride where people believe force is best, the world would be a better place

21 June 2025

The Administration's Ineluctable Coice to Bomb Iran's Fordo Nuclear Enrichment Plant

 Iran's leadership has been dedicated for some time to building a nuclear weapon. It developed it's own nuclear enrichment centrifuges deep underground at the Fordo plant near the city of Qom.

Israel is a major U.S. ally; a peer of Britain, yet one with more active tactical interests regarding America's own international political posture concerning oil and other concerns. Israel even defrappe's European concerns about the Mediterranean Sea becoming the turf of Muslim naval and air forces for better hegemonizing Europe. Russia recently sold it's Sukovsky 57 felon jet fighter to Algeria and other nations in the region.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/06/18/us-attacks-iran-expert-predictions-analysis-00413901

Because Iranian leadership is hell-bent on having a nuclear device to bomb Israel, Israel attacked Iran. So the conflict need reach its final denouement with the destruction of the Fordo facility, and the very large bunker buster may only be delivered by a jet bomber Israel doesn't have yet the U.S. Air Force does. Hence President Trump will decide to bomb Fordo.

At this point the Federal Government of the United States may be looking for a regime change in Iran equivalent to the revolution that brought the Ayatollah Khomeini into power in 1979. War is a reprehensible activity, yet even worse are ineffective, vacillating half measures that exacerbate the time and scale of conflicts- as has occurred in the Ukraine conflict because of Europe and the Biden administration unwillingness to share East Ukraine with Russia and settle the conflict.

https://suno.com/s/zTC1VefZ6RQJjfSa

Most of the world political opinion after a war that leaves the clerical branch of Iran's traditional three part political stool of political power between civilian, military and clerical powers in charge will feel more sympathy andunderstanding if that government seeks revenge. An exacerbated new attack on Israel would be viewed as a quid pro quo. Thus the C.I.A. may be seeking that expatriate Iranian leader and internal dissidents to be groomed to take control with the civilian branch and a populist civil government with traditional, yet liberated conservative moral values not antipathetic to shared values concerning marriage and the social and economic equality of women in Russia, the United States and even Argentina- in the latter case women have only a 35% pay gap economically, and that may improve eventually.

It is unlikely that the U.S. will become involved in a ground war in Iran. The next revolutionary government of Iran may have help from various rebels and U.S. Air force bombing missions yet the revolt or coup to change leadership ranks in order to bring a non-nuclear civil government willing to restore peace and prosperity with a new openness to non-belligerent relations with Israel and the world will need to find its own people to lead it toward a new independence from internal tyranny.

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