Showing posts with label Iran. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iran. Show all posts

04 October 2026

How Iran Went About Making Nuclear Weapons Before Stopped

 Iran was just weeks away from producing weapons grade U-235. Following is an AI summary of the processes used to produce weapons grade uranium and to manufacture plutonium.

AI- The Uranium Distillery vs. The Plutonium Alchemist

A complete guide to understanding how nuclear weapons are built.

1. The Distillery Path: Enriching Uranium (The U-235 Route)

Natural uranium ore is mostly "water" (U-238). It contains only a tiny, mere 0.7% concentration of the potent, fissile material needed for nuclear reactions (U-235). To build a weapon, a country must act like a high-tech distillery to concentrate that 0.7% up to a volatile 90% purity (180 Proof).

  • The Stills (Centrifuges): Because you cannot separate uranium isotopes by hand, the ore is turned into a gas (uranium hexafluoride) and pumped into vertical cylinders called centrifuges. These spin at blistering speeds (up to 70,000 rpm). Since U-238 is slightly heavier than U-235, centrifugal force drives the heavy U-238 "water" to the outer walls, allowing the lighter, potent U-235 to be collected from the center.

  • The Cascades (Re-Distillation): A single centrifuge only boosts the purity by a fraction of a percent. To get real strength, thousands of centrifuges are linked together in a cascade. The gas is passed from one machine to the next, getting "re-distilled" thousands of times.

  • Civilian Power (10 Proof): Stopping the process early at 3% to 5% purity creates low-enriched uranium, safely used to power commercial civilian energy grids.

2. The Finish Line: Why 120 Proof to 180 Proof is a Sprint

The biggest misconception about nuclear proliferation is looking at Iran’s current 60% enrichment level (120 Proof) and assuming they are only two-thirds of the way to a bomb. In nuclear physics, roughly 99% of the physical effort is already completed.

  • The Volume is Already Gone: Moving from a weak 0.7% raw wash up to 60% takes years of massive, industrial effort because you have to boil off and separate millions of gallons of U-238 "water."

  • The Fast-Phase Finish: Once the material sits at 120 Proof (60%), the vast majority of the useless water is already gone. The remaining batch is incredibly small in volume but highly concentrated. Pushing that remaining material through the final stage to reach 180 Proof (90% weapons-grade) does not require massive facilities or months of work. It is a quick "polishing" phase that can be accomplished in a matter of days to a few weeks.

3. The Alchemy Path: Creating Plutonium (The Pu-239 Route)

While the uranium path is entirely about physically sorting existing isotopes by weight, the plutonium path relies on a completely different scientific concept: nuclear transmutation (chemical alchemy). Plutonium-239 is virtually non-existent in nature and cannot be dug out of the ground.

  • Breeding the Element: Instead of using centrifuges, a country must run a nuclear reactor. Inside the reactor, the heavy, non-fissile U-238 atoms absorb stray neutrons from the ongoing reaction. Over a matter of days, that uranium literally transforms (decays) into a brand-new element: Plutonium-239.

  • Chemical Reprocessing: Once the reactor fuel is spent, it is pulled out and taken to a heavy chemical reprocessing plant. Because plutonium is a completely different chemical element than uranium, scientists do not need to spin it. Instead, they drop the material into specialized acid baths. They use straightforward chemical extraction to wash the remaining uranium "hay" away, leaving pure plutonium behind.

Summary

Uranium-235: Like finding a needle in a haystack. You use mechanical centrifuge "stills" to spin away the hay until you have a pile of needles.

Plutonium-239: Like alchemy. You bake the hay inside a nuclear reactor until it turns into gold, then use chemical acids to wash the leftover hay away.


Feature

Uranium Weapon Path (U-235)

Plutonium Weapon Path (Pu-239)

Primary Method

Isotope Separation (Physical)

Nuclear Transmutation (Chemical)

Core Equipment

Gas Centrifuge Cascades ("Stills")

Nuclear Reactor + Reprocessing Plant

The Process

Physically sorting existing, naturally occurring isotopes by weight.

Breeding a brand-new element inside a reactor, then chemically extracting it.

Civilian Energy Purity

3% to 5% Enrichment (6 to 10 Proof)

Clean Reactor Fuel (Varies based on reactor type, but un-weapons-ready)

Highly Enriched Milestone

60% Enrichment (120 Proof) — The "99% finished" point where almost all water is gone.

N/A — Does not pass through an enrichment stage.

Weapons-Grade Target

90% Enrichment (180 Proof) — Highly volatile and ready for a bomb.

93%+ Purity — Pure chemical extraction from spent fuel rods.

18 September 2026

Why Fund the Ukraine War and Complain About the Smaller Cost of the Iran War?

I am not sure why the Congress and Presidents feel happy about spending $200 billion in Ukraine and complain about $38 billion in the Iran conflict. Each are bad conflicts for several reasons including loss of life and business via sanctions. Europe seems to be the winners with ongoing expansion in the old world and possibly adding Canada to their swag bag. Iran at least is an existential threat with missiles and nuclear program. 

Russia alternatively has numerous times sought good relations with the United States and just wants historical justice for its legitimate land claims to Eastern Ukraine that were taken by the west when its military power was comatose in the transition from Soviet Communist power. Democrats and Republican sycophants imagine Iran will resume peace and harmony if they just defund the conflict. 

That is as non rational as defunding police. If KSM were tried in Oregon the Governor would commute any sentence if convicted as one did for a serial killer that had only been convicted several times for auto theft, assault, etc. KSM may request a change of venue. Maybe the California Governor will find a kill switch for the conflicts as he expects to make a kill switch for AI that the thinking programs will be too stupid to solve or be boosted past by a disgruntled programmer.

Muslim suicide bombers would not be so willing to kill themselves for the cause if they knew that the promise of 72 virgins was probably a mistranslation of 72 white grapes. Young suicide bombers would care less for killing themselves for a fruit basket in paradise. Iranian extremists will not go away to a kinder, gentler social environment if the U.S. military transitions to farther remove.

What is needed for the Iran situation is a better plan to stifle the IRGC and its control over the Persian Gulf Islands and oil export terminals. Unfortunately Iran’s sales of oil needs to be entirely stopped and that nation transition to solar power to curb greenhouse gas emissions.

All of those sanctions on Russia including the new one that will place a 100% tariff on nations buying Russian oil and gas cost American consumers directly. Keeping Russian oil and gas off the international market will drive up the cost of fuel in the U.S. And if China and India have to pay more so will Americans buying products imported from China and India. If China and India keeping buying Russian energy products and incur the 100% federal tariff, domestic consumer costs in the U.S.A. may double. For the rich in Congress and the White House those are trivial concerns; the Ukraine war is a money maker for the defense industry and Europe is looking to expand its power in a last gasp of colonialism stimulated by the rise of the European Union. People like the late Senator L Graham were clueless on Russian and possible world history and saw only the Atlantic horizon and exporting weapons made in the S.E. as the only viable option. There is a cost to electing dummies to run government. With enough of them to form a critical mass the U.S. government becomes as stupid in its choices and directions as the Roman Empire was with a succession of bad emperors. The EU has yet to produce its requisite Napoleon or Hitler for leadership so far, yet with the tools of the EU and N.A.T.O. the prospect looms like a distant tempest.


06 August 2026

President Trump Can't Legally Surrender Strait of Hormuz Freedom of International Law of the Sea

President Trump is said to be negotiating with Iran about the Persian Gulf and International Law of the Sea. Iran and Oman are colluding to control the Strait and impose taxes/fees on ships passing. President Trump cannot agree with any part of that any more than he could agree with Britain, Spain or Morocco to tax/charge fees on all ships passing the Strait of Gibralter.

Plainly Oman will need to be administered by a regional, international body in the future- perhaps Saudi Arabia, the United States, Israel, Kuwait and the U.A.E. to assure the Strait of Hormuz remains free. Omanis could continue to regulate their own affairs except for those concerning international shipping. It may become necessary for Iran as well to permanently lose territory on the Strait of Hormuz for coalition security forces. A 99 year mission with territorial sovereignty should be given to the Strait of Hormuz Defense Governance Coalition.

Iran is obviously counting on the U.S. record playbook of leaving conflicts eventually that they do not win- from Vietnam to Afghanistan U.S. leadership tends to leave or look for quicky deals on bad terms if the opposition force resists long enough. The Strait of Hormuz should be different though. Even if oil flows stop through that waterway five or ten years the Law of the Sea should be defended globally.

I interacted with AI discussing various relevant issue concerning the Oran war.

Gary- Aren’t Iranian attacks on Persian Gulf travelling oil tankers comparable to the piracy of Somalia?

A.I.-While political figures have compared Iran’s state-backed maritime obstructions to Somali piracy, the actions differ fundamentally. Somali piracy is criminal and decentralized, driven by financial ransoms. Iranian tanker seizures are state-directed geopolitical actions carried out by military forces in uniform, resembling state-level coercion or reprisal rather than traditional piracy. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]

Nature of the Actors

  • Somali Pirates: Independent criminal gangs and local militias operating without state backing.

  • Iran: Regular military and paramilitary forces, like the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), acting under official government policy. [6, 7]

Core Motivations

  • Somali Piracy: Extortion of private commercial companies for multimillion-dollar cash ransoms.

  • Iran Actions: Retaliation for international sanctions, geopolitical leverage, or seizing cargo in response to legal disputes involving detained Iranian ships. [2, 3]

Legal and Diplomatic Classifications

  • Piracy: Defined under international law (UNCLOS) as private acts of violence or detention committed for private ends.

  • State Seizure: Sovereign actions or boardings conducted by a recognized government, governed by the laws of state responsibility and armed conflict rather than maritime criminal law. [8, 9]

Would you like to explore how international maritime law differentiates state actions from criminal piracy, or look into recent security developments in the Strait of Hormuz?

[1] https://www.youtube.com

[2] https://thehill.com

[3] https://www.facebook.com

[4] https://www.facebook.com

[5] https://news.sbs.co.kr

[6] https://www.aljazeera.com

[7] https://www.aol.com

[8] https://www.grin.com

[9] https://www.mol-service.com

Gary-  It's a rather interesting opportunity to compare state terrorism to private terrorism, individual terrorism, or organized crime brought to a state level. And to compare that with organized crime by non-state actors. I think that one could compare reasonably organized crime in the Gaza Strip and organized crime in Yemen and organized crime in Iran with general all-purpose terrorism. Besides, one might even go to the point and say that attacking oil tankers anywhere in the world is terrorism and piracy.

AI- Comparing state-level coercion to non-state organized crime and terrorism highlights a central debate in modern international relations, where academic definitions often clash with public perceptions. Legal frameworks and political analysts categorize these actions based on who commits them, why they do it, and what laws apply.

Definitions and Categories

  • State Actions (Iran, Yemen's Houthis):

    • Iran operates through official military branches like the IRGC to enforce geopolitical leverage.

    • Yemen's Houthi movement, while acting as a de facto government in parts of Yemen, functions as a heavily armed militant group backed by a state sponsor (Iran).

    • These actions are typically classified as state-sponsored terrorism, asymmetric warfare, or violations of state responsibility under international law. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]

  • Non-State De Facto Control (Gaza Strip):

    • Groups operating in Gaza have historically combined governance with militant operations.

    • When such groups target civilian infrastructure or commercial shipping, international bodies and sovereign states classify these actions as terrorism rather than localized organized crime due to their political and ideological goals.

  • Non-State Private Actors (Somali Pirates):

    • Classic organized crime networks operate strictly outside the framework of any state or political ideology.

    • Their actions are defined under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) as piracy because they are committed for "private ends" (financial profit). [1, 2]

Overlapping Tactics vs. Different Objectives

Feature

State-Level Coercion (e.g., Iran)

State-Backed Militancy (e.g., Houthis)

Private Organized Crime (e.g., Somalia)

Primary Actor

Uniformed military / State institutions

De facto authorities / Insurgent groups

Criminal syndicates / Local militias

Main Objective

Geopolitical leverage, sanctions relief, deterrence [1, 2]

Ideological warfare, regional disruption

Financial gain via ransom and extortion

Legal Regime

Laws of Armed Conflict / State Responsibility

Counter-terrorism frameworks / Sanctions

Domestic criminal law / Maritime piracy law

Command Structure

Centralized national command

Decentralized but state-coordinated

Fluid, clan-based criminal networks

The "Global Terrorism" vs. Piracy Argument

The argument that attacking oil tankers is inherently "terrorism and piracy" regardless of who does it aligns with a philosophical view of global security, but faces specific legal boundaries:

  • The Hostis Humani Generis Principle: Historically, pirates were declared hostis humani generis (enemies of all mankind), allowing any nation to capture and try them. [1, 2, 3]

  • The Political Boundary: When a sovereign state or a politically motivated group attacks a ship, international law shifts the response from a criminal law enforcement matter to a geopolitical or military conflict. Nations respond with naval escorts, economic sanctions, or military strikes rather than police arrests.

If you would like to look deeper into this, we can examine how international courts handle state-sponsored maritime property destruction, or look at the financial networks that fund these different groups. [1]

Gary-  I believe it might be useful to compare taxation without representation to legal jurisprudence without representation as well as consider extortion circumstances like regular organized crime- extortion perhaps the five families in New York of of the 60s with that of extortion by Iran over the Strait of Hormuz and shipping to extort money from shippers going through an international waterway.

AI- Comparing historical organized crime extortion to the state actions of Iran in the Strait of Hormuz highlights how similar tactics—restricting access, demanding compliance, and threatening force—serve entirely different strategic goals. The concept of "jurisprudence without representation" further mirrors this dynamic, describing systems where rules are imposed on actors who have no voice in making them.

Extortion: New York's Five Families vs. Iran

While both systems rely on the implicit or explicit threat of violence to extract value, their structure, mechanisms, and goals diverge significantly.

  • The Mafia (Private Extortion):

    • The Mechanism: The Five Families used the "protection racket." Businesses paid a tax to avoid property damage or physical harm from the Mafia itself, or to operate in a specific territory.

    • The Goal: Purely financial. The revenue directly enriched individuals and sustained a hidden, illegal corporate structure operating entirely outside the law.

    • The Scope: Localized and parasitic, relying on the quiet complicity or fear of local businesses and corrupt officials.

  • Iran (State-Level Coercion):

    • The Mechanism: Iran utilizes its geographic positioning over the Strait of Hormuz—a vital global choke point—to board, detain, or harass commercial vessels.

    • The Goal: Geopolitical leverage rather than direct financial profit. These actions are typically executed to force the release of seized Iranian oil tankers abroad, pressure Western nations for sanctions relief, or signal deterrence during diplomatic standoffs.

    • The Scope: International and sovereign. The actions are carried out openly by uniformed state militaries (the IRGC) operating under national strategic policies. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]

Jurisprudence Without Representation

Your phrase "jurisprudence without representation" provides a strong framework for understanding the friction in both scenarios. It describes a legal or regulatory system imposed on a population or group that has no political input or voting power within that system.

  • In Organized Crime: The Mafia establishes its own unwritten legal code (Omertà, territorial boundaries, dispute tribunals). Legitimate business owners subjected to their extortion must follow these rules but have zero representation or recourse within the criminal hierarchy.

  • In International Maritime Channels: This friction occurs when a coastal state imposes strict, non-standard domestic laws or aggressive military oversight on international shipping lanes. Commercial vessels flying foreign flags must navigate these rules to avoid seizure, yet the global shipping industry and foreign citizens have no political representation or legislative say within the governing state’s legal structure.

If you want to explore this comparison further, we can look at how international transit rights under UNCLOS try to prevent local overreach, or analyze the historical economics of protection rackets compared to the economic fallout of modern maritime security crises.

Gary-  Is it even possible for President Trump to negotiate Law of the Sea of the Persian Gulf with Iran in a way that would concede any law of the sea freedom- impinging international shipping?

AI- President Trump cannot legally alter global freedom of navigation via a bilateral deal with Iran, but his administration could make political concessions that fundamentally compromise international shipping access. Because both the United States and Iran are notably non-parties to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the current diplomatic standoff over the ongoing 2026 war hinges on customary international law versus raw military leverage. [1, 2, 3]

1. The Legal Reality: No Bilateral Power to Change Global Law

  • No Third-Party Binding: A pact between the U.S. and Iran cannot legally rewrite international maritime law for other sovereign nations. Legal experts note that a bilateral agreement modifying transit rights would not bind third states like European or Asian trading partners. [2]

  • The Role of Oman: The southern half of the Strait of Hormuz belongs to Oman's territorial waters. Unlike the U.S. and Iran, Oman is an UNCLOS party bound by international "transit passage" rules. Any arrangement attempting to restrict freedom of travel would face direct conflict with Oman’s obligations. [1, 2, 4, 5, 6]

2. The Geopolitical Friction: De Facto Concessions vs. Law

While President Trump cannot change the law itself, critics and legal scholars warn that a negotiated "compromise" to end the conflict could establish dangerous precedents. Recent draft proposals in negotiation reveal the precise mechanisms of this friction: [2, 7, 8, 9]

  • The Routing Demands: Iran is currently pushing for a framework where ships must enter the Persian Gulf via an Iranian-controlled route. This is being compared to a "visa system" requiring transit permissions, which directly curtails the concept of unimpeded international transit. [9, 10, 11]

  • Transit Fees: Tehran has demanded the right to charge service fees for "security and environmental preservation". Legal scholars argue that paying a state to guarantee safe passage through an international waterway is effectively a formalized protection racket or extortion dressed up as local regulation. [2, 9, 12, 13]

  • The Trump Administration Position: While Trump has publicly dismissed Iran's toll concepts by boasting of absolute U.S. naval dominance, the pressure to stabilize global oil markets and conclude an unpopular war ahead of domestic elections has kept a negotiated solution on the table. [8, 9, 14]

3. Why This Matters for Global Shipping

If the Trump administration yields to a compromise that permits Iranian oversight or transit notifications, it would signal a major departure from decades of U.S. foreign policy. Even if framed as a temporary ceasefire arrangement, allowing a coastal state to selectively manage or condition passage through a global chokepoint risks fragmenting the international rules-based order. [2, 7, 8, 15, 16]

[1] https://www.unclosdebate.org

[2] https://www.arabnews.com

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org

[4] https://thehill.com

[5] https://www.thedailystar.net

[6] https://www.lawfaremedia.org

[7] https://www.facebook.com

[8] https://www.wcnc.com

[9] https://www.wusa9.com

[10] https://www.facebook.com

[11] https://www.techtimes.com

[12] https://www.jpost.com

[13] https://themedialine.org

[14] https://www.youtube.com

[15] https://www.pbs.org

[16] https://theintercept.com

Gary- Realistically, President Trump can only negotiate Iranian surrender of nuclear weapons development/ nuclear program that can lead to nuclear weapons- and not the freedom of international shipping of the Persian Gulf or anywhere else?

AI- Realistically, President Trump can—and currently is—negotiating both issues, but they are deliberately split into two separate phases. Under the administration's two-step framework for ending the war, maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz is the immediate priority, while denuclearization is the secondary, long-term goal. [1, 2]

The Two-Phase Negotiation Strategy

The White House has separated the crisis into distinct diplomatic tracks to break the stalemate:

  1. Phase 1: The Maritime Deal (Current Focus): Trump explicitly stated that the first phase focuses on reopening the Strait of Hormuz to normalize global commerce. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed that this short-term track aims to restore the "freedom of movement" for oil tankers and commercial ships. [2, 3, 4, 5]

  2. Phase 2: The Nuclear Deal (Long-Term Goal): Trump noted that "the second phase will be the denuclearization," emphasizing that the broader geopolitical settlement will require Iran to permanently forfeit any path to a nuclear weapon. [2]

The Core Conflict: What is Being Conceded?

While Trump is negotiating shipping rights, the critical debate is whether the U.S. will hold its red line or concede traditional maritime freedoms to secure a ceasefire: [6, 7, 8]

  • The U.S. Red Line: The administration maintains that it wants total freedom of navigation with zero Iranian tolls, lane control, or transit permissions. Trump has publicly rejected Iran's demands to charge service fees, stating, "I'm not going to let them charge." [1, 9, 10]

  • The Looming Compromise: Despite the tough rhetoric, current draft proposals mediated through Oman reveal that Iran is pushing for structural control over inbound shipping routes. Critics warn that if the U.S. accepts a temporary fix to lower global gas prices, it could inadvertently de facto legalize the very restrictions on shipping freedoms the U.S. military has historically fought to prevent. [6, 11, 12, 13]

[1] https://www.aljazeera.com

[2] https://www.iranintl.com

[3] https://www.cnbc.com

[4] https://www.youtube.com

[5] https://www.youtube.com

[6] https://www.nbcnews.com

[7] https://www.abc.net.au

[8] https://takshashila.org.in

[9] https://fortune.com

[10] https://www.aljazeera.com

[11] https://www.cnbc.com

[12] https://www.wdsu.com

[13] https://www.fdd.org

Gary- In a sense President Trump has his negotiating priorities backwards; his first priority and his only legitimate priority is that of the nuclear weapons issue while the Persian Gulf issue is simply a matter of the United States will blast you around to the Stone Age if they keep trying to extort Persian Gulf shippers with military attacks?

AI-  The argument that President Trump has his priorities backwards highlights a major split between traditional military deterrence and pragmatic economic diplomacy. Many security analysts agree with your perspective, arguing that treating freedom of navigation as a negotiable item—rather than an absolute red line enforced by military dominance—weakens global stability. [1]

Evaluating the two competing strategic views reveals why this prioritization is so heavily debated. [2]

The Argument for Your View: "Deterrence First, Denuclearization Only"

This perspective argues that freedom of navigation is non-negotiable and should be enforced strictly through military power, not diplomatic compromise. [3]

  • Absolute Maritime Freedom: Historically, the U.S. position has been that international waterways are open by right, not by permission. Under this view, negotiating shipping lanes or notifications with Iran concedes that Iran has a right to dictate terms, effectively legitimizing their extortion tactics. [4]

  • The "Stone Age" Deterrence: Proponents of this view argue that the U.S. Navy possesses the overwhelming firepower required to destroy the IRGC's naval capabilities, clear mines, and escort tankers unilaterally. Using military force to secure the Gulf would send a clear signal that maritime extortion will not be tolerated. [5]

  • The Existential Threat: This logic dictates that the only issue requiring deep diplomatic negotiation is the nuclear program, as a nuclear-armed Iran presents a permanent, existential shift in global power that conventional military strikes cannot easily permanently erase. [6]

The Administration's Counter-View: "Economic Urgency First"

The Trump administration’s decision to prioritize a maritime ceasefire stems from immediate domestic and global economic pressures rather than long-term legal philosophy.

  • Immediate Inflation and Energy Shock: Ongoing military conflicts in the Gulf disrupt global oil supplies, spiking inflation and energy costs. For an administration highly focused on domestic economic metrics and gas prices, stabilizing the markets immediately is treated as a political necessity that cannot wait for a lengthy nuclear negotiation. [7, 8, 9, 10, 11]

  • Avoiding a Wider Regional War: While a massive U.S. military campaign could crush Iran's conventional navy, it risks triggering a massive, unpredictable regional war. Iran can deploy asymmetric warfare, including ballistic missile strikes on regional oil infrastructure (like Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq) and drone attacks on U.S. bases, which could inflict severe damage on the global economy. [12, 13, 14, 15, 16]

  • Using Leverage Sequentially: The administration's tactical gamble is that stopping the immediate fighting in the Gulf lowers the temperature and establishes a diplomatic channel, which can then be leveraged into a stricter "maximum pressure" negotiation over the nuclear program later. [17]

Ultimately, the friction in Trump's strategy is the classic dilemma of short-term stabilization versus long-term deterrence. By putting the maritime issue on the negotiating table to secure a quick economic win, the administration risks signaling that global shipping rights can be bartered, which critics worry could invite further extortion from hostile states down the road. [18]

If you would like to examine this further, we can look at how past U.S. naval operations (like Operation Earnest Will in the 1980s) used direct military force to secure the Gulf, or analyze the current economic impact of the shipping disruptions on global trade. [19, 20]


[1] https://www.automotivelogistics.media

[2] https://www.scielo.br

[3] https://www.cnn.com

[4] https://www.instagram.com

[5] https://www.npr.org

[6] https://www.wsj.com

[7] https://www.latrobe.edu.au

[8] https://www.reuters.com

[9] https://www.moomoo.com

[10] https://blogs.timesofisrael.com

[11] https://www.i24news.tv

[12] https://news.bgov.com

[13] https://www.facebook.com

[14] https://www.facebook.com

[15] https://www.tasnimnews.ir

[16] https://www.facebook.com

[17] https://thebaffler.com

[18] https://iveybusinessjournal.com

[19] https://www.washingtoninstitute.org

[20] https://www.instagram.com






 

19 April 2026

The Red Dragon Enters the Zone of Combat Contact (Strait of Hormuz)

 It is challenging to interpret some parts of the Bible. Martin Luther commented that the Revelation has 'a lot of straw'. It has been said that the book was written with a bit of camouflage coding so the Apostle John would not be immediately executed by the Emperor Nero who may have been negatively referred to by John in writing the little book (Biblos means 'little books').

Some parts of the Bible are prophecy and some of those prophecies were fulfilled back in the day and some are yet to be fulfilled. Those points are points of contention to various Christian, and even Islamic sects. Iranians are primarily Shia'a Muslims and have an eschatology (end times) prophecy criterion remarkably similar to Christian pre-tribulation criteria because the work was probably lifted from the book of Revelation by Muhammad with some changes.

Partial preterist Christians believe that part of the prophecies were fulfilled and others remain. One controversial prophetic section is The Revelation. Readers are left to interpret the meaning for themselves of course, as is the nature of reading. Some of the parameters of the prophecies could be in the process of fulfillment in the MIddle East presently. It is well known however that the perception that some parts of Bible prophecy are being fulfilled is a recurrent phenomenon that occurs several times in every generation.

The Red Dragon that seeks to devour a woman's child, and the great harlot Babylon, could refer to the Persian Gulf, Babylon or just Iraq or Iran etc and the Iranian effort to attack Israel and the United States (possibly a Christian nation where Jesus's kingdom of God remains the strongest). The Red Dragon also refers to Satan who wears something like an evil Santa suit without any white or black on it to lighten the mood from just blood.

Interpreting scripture is challenging when it has many possible dimensions or levels of meaning for so many word strings. One could be correct in an interpretation yet not exhaust the remaining uses for interpretation of the reference that could yet occur in the future or have occurred in the past. And one need be careful not to add anything to the book or all the curses mention would be added unto thee. Muhammed may have violated that admonition long ago compounding Middle East challenges for Iranians.

The harlot of many nations seems closed again. Phonetics for the phenomenon are definitely weird. Ha ha ha means ‘the, the, the’ in Hebrew. A sense of humor seems an underlying theme. Divine humor-how else could one stand the pathos of politics? Charging a toll for opening Hormuz lol, took pimping to a higher level.

From the Revelation...

"The Great Harlot and the Beast

17 One of the seven angels who had the seven bowls came and talked with me, saying to me, “Come, I will show you the judgment of the great prostitute who sits on many waters, 2 with whom the kings of the earth committed adultery, and the inhabitants of the earth were made drunk with the wine of her sexual immorality.”

3 Then he carried me away in the Spirit into the wilderness. I saw a woman sitting on a scarlet beast which was full of blasphemous names, having seven heads and ten horns. 4 The woman was arrayed in purple and scarlet, and adorned with gold and precious stones and pearls, having in her hand a golden cup full of abominations and the filth of her sexual immorality. 5 On her forehead a name was written:

MYSTERY,
BABYLON THE GREAT,
THE MOTHER OF PROSTITUTES
AND OF THE ABOMINATIONS OF THE EARTH.

6 I saw the woman, drunk with the blood of the saints and with the blood of the martyrs of Jesus."

If China is one of the meanings of  the Red Dragon in Revelation 12 it is interesting to note that China has sent a few naval frigates to try to force open the Strait of Hormuz to let her oil tankers with Iranian oil products run through the U.S. naval blockade. It is possible that world War Three could begin with that slight action of Chinese ships fighting with U.S. in the Gulf of Oman.

Plainly one interpretation is that fossil fuels bring the world to the brink with global warming and political corruption. Oil has evolved beyond its useful time to become the 'wine' fueling sexual immorality of politics and machine transported relationships. It could refer to the global oil market and the subversion it does to the integrity of national democracy and political self-determination, ecological economic innovation, livable wages etc.

Alternatively ,Jesus made a parable of ten virgins (Matthew 25:1-13) keeping their lamps burning with extra oil- five did and five did not and exhausted their supply.

I suppose the ships could be allowed to pass if they first unloaded the oil products somewhere in Oman or onto a waiting empty neutral flagged ship whence the  products could be sold to pay for the harm done to allied interests from Iran.


Enter the Red Dragon; China Sends Warships to Strait oi Hormuz

 It is challenging to interpret some parts of the Bible. Martin Luther commented that the Revelation has 'a lot of straw'. It has been said that the book was written with a bit of camouflage coding so the APostle John would not be immediately executed by the Emperor Nero who may have been negatively referred to by John in writing the little book (Biblos means 'little books').

SOme parts of the Bible were prophecy and some of those prophecies where fulfilled back in the day and some are yet to be fulfilled. Those points are points of contention to various Christian, and even Islamic sects. Iranians are primarily Shia'a Muslims and have and eschatology (end times) prophecy criterion remarkably similar to Christian pre-tribulation criteria because the work was probably lifted from the book of Revelation by Muhammad with some changes.

Partial preterist Christians believe that part of the prophecies were fulfulled and others remain. One controversial prophetic section is THe Revelation. Readers are left to interpret the meaning for themselves of course, as is the nature of reading. Some of the parameters of the prophecies could be in the process of fulfillment in the MIddle East presently. It is well known however that the perception that some parts of Bible prophecy are being fulfilled is a recurrent phenomenon that occurs several times in every generation.

The Red Dragon that seeks to devour a woman's child, and the great harlot Babylon, could refer to the Persian Gulf, Babylon or just Iraq or Iran etc and the Iranian effort to attack Israel and the United States (possibly a Christian nation where Jesus's kingdom of God remains the strongest). The Red Dragon also refers to Satan who wears something like an evil Santa suit without any white or black on it to lighten the mood from just blood.

Interpreting scripture is challenging when it has many possible dimensions or levels of meaning for so many word strings. One could be correct in an interpretation yet not exhaust the remaining uses for interpretation of the reference that could yet occur in the future or have occurred in the past. And one need be careful not to add anything to the book or all the curses mention would be added unto thee. Muhammed may have violated that admonition long ago compounding Middle East challenges for Iranians.

The harlot of many nations seems closed again. Phonetics for the phenomenon are definitely weird. Ha ha ha means ‘the, the, the’ in Hebrew. A sense of humor seems an underlying theme. Divine humor-how else could one stand the pathos of politics? Charging a toll for opening Hormuz lol, took pimping to a higher level.

If China is one of the meanings of  the Red Dragon in Revelation 12 it is interesting to note that China has sent a few naval frigates to try to force open the Strait of Hormuz to let her oil tankers with Iranian oil products run through the U.S. naval blockade. It is possible that world War Three could begin with that slight action of Chinese ships fighting with U.S. in the Gulf of Oman.

I suppose the ships could be allowed to pass if they first unloaded the oil products somewhere in Oman or onto a waiting empty neutral flagged ship whence the  products could be sold to pay for the harm done to allied interests from Iran.

14 April 2026

Congress Needs a Cap on Funding Foreigner's Wars Instead of American Wars

 Instead of a Presidential War Powers Act a more effective legislative measure would be to set a cap on funding foreign wars as a percent of some discretionary budget such as paying down the national debt. The quarter trillion dollars the Congress voted to dump on Ukraine for war over the years was ridiculous.

It is somewhat amusing that the Democrats find it wrong to defend the U.S.A. against a nation within a few days or weeks of pushing uranium enrichment to 90% for several nuclear bombs and sought to send every loose dollar it could find to fund the interminable war against Russia in order to increase the need for a larger national defense budget in preparation for World War Three.

As for Iran- The Iranian Government may have killed as many as 33,000 civilian protesters this years besides enriching to 60%. The theocrats weren't done with killing protesters or enriching uranium for no peaceful civilian purposes. It is easy to go from 60 to 90%. There were fewer than 2000 civilians killed in the conflict. Trump's war is saving lives and perhaps not only those of Iranians. He may have saved the lives of Chicagoans too from some future nuclear incineration by the Mullahs that hate Chicago too (ICBMs by 2035). Iranian drones launched from freighters comprised a clear and present danger already if armed with nuclear devices. 

Gemini- "Iran has developed capabilities to carry drones on converted ships like the IRIS Shahid Bagheri, which could potentially launch them from close proximity to the U.S.."


Threat Focus: Recent FBI concerns and intelligence warnings specifically highlight potential attacks on the U.S. West Coast or against vessels in international waters.

09 April 2026

Europe is in the Middle of Confusion Without Clear Goals (Besides Expansion)

The Trump administration should realize that Iran and Ukraine both stall for time, using that interval to seek political leverage and acquire additional weapons.

Europeans often appear as a confused lot, struggling with a diluted sense of national identity that leaves them uncertain about what truly serves their long-term interests as Europeans. Historically accustomed to conflicts with fellow nations, they seem to have elevated that pattern through the structures of the European Union. In effect, President Clinton handed Ukraine over to Western Europe, yet Western Europe shows little willingness to release it or share it with Russia—its rightful owner in this view.

The American left similarly seems adrift, lacking coherent leadership or a clear vision for the future. What it pursues as a rational agenda often resembles treason in practice: prioritizing foreign interests over American ones, or aligning with the political goals of European leftists at the expense of U.S. priorities. Democrats and Governor Newsom appear ready to tolerate a Mexico influenced by drug cartels rather than firmly defend U.S. borders. They frame basic measures like requiring a valid state or federal ID for voting as “voter suppression.” Ukraine and Iran, in turn, skillfully exploit these internal divisions and anti-Republican reflexes.

Europeans, one might reflect, fail to grasp that they themselves have become a primary force of division in today’s world. By contrast, America has achieved relatively good race relations in recent decades, with equal opportunity and wages largely normalized—yet partisan animosity persists. European leadership prefers to direct its hostility toward Russia rather than pursue a pragmatic sharing of Ukraine. Driving a wedge between the West and Russia risks isolating Europe and the United States from deeper BRICS economic integration, while encouraging the growth of a parallel rival market.

Recent European efforts to restrict Russian oil tankers—potentially blocking access through the North Sea, English Channel, Black Sea, and Mediterranean—illustrate this confusion. Such measures could easily backfire, leaving Europe itself more vulnerable to energy shortages by cutting off its own supply routes. Uniting Russia, China, France, and Spain in opposition to the United States and Western Europe hardly seems like a strategic masterstroke. This outcome stems largely from Western Europe’s reluctance to compromise on Ukraine, perhaps along approximate Dnepro boundaries.

It remains possible that, in a future crisis, the United States might withhold support for European defense and opt for neutrality rather than risk entanglement in a World War Three on the continent. Letting Europe burn and not rebuilding it with another Marshall Plan would confer economic advantage onto Americans rather than Europeans.

Alternatively, a more circumspective path—sharing Ukraine equitably, renormalizing relations with Russia, and fully integrating it into the Western economic sphere—could offer the surest route to lasting peace in Europe and beyond. Deep economic interdependence provides a powerful form of transparency and deterrence: it becomes far more difficult to conceal war preparations when potential adversaries are daily business partners. History shows that rhetoric against a designated foe often escalates dangerously in the absence of such ties, as seen in German propaganda leading up to Kristallnacht and the Holocaust.

Bringing Russia into comprehensive economic integration with the West would likely serve as the strongest bulwark against renewed Muslim terrorism and any Chinese adventurism toward Taiwan. After all, China’s leadership appears foremost concerned with raising the living standards of its citizens. Detached somewhat from both Russia and the West, Beijing would be far less inclined to gamble its economy on a high-risk conflict over Taiwan.

08 April 2026

Preponderantly, Western Europe Doesn't Support of Defend Rule of Law Over Strait of Hormuz

 Western European nations don’t support the rule of law over international waters. The Strait of Hormuz is an international strait and it is illegal to force ships to pay protection money to pass it. Western European nations; especially France, are willing to pay tribute to Iran to let their ships pass, rather than to make the least effort to defend the rule of law that would also be convenient for them in this case.

Iran's ten point 'peace plan' is loaded with criminal propositions that make it implicitly void. It is interesting that the media and governments seem to be ignoring the illegality of Iran's document. Illegal contracts are invalid. Iran can't charge tolls over international waters.

Gemini summarized the rule of law paradigm for the Strait of Hormuz…

Gary-Isn’t the strait of hormuz supposed to be free to transit according to international maritime law?

Gemini-Yes, under international maritime law, the 

Strait of Hormuz is considered an “international strait” that should be free for transit passage. However, this legal status is currently at the center of a major geopolitical dispute involving differing interpretations of the law. 

1. The Right of Transit Passage (UNCLOS)

The primary framework is the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which established the Transit Passage regime. 

  • Non-Suspendable: Unlike “innocent passage” in other territorial waters, transit passage through international straits cannot be suspended by coastal states, even during armed conflict.
  • Unimpeded Access: All ships and aircraft enjoy the right to continuous and expeditious passage without needing prior permission.
  • Prohibition of Tolls: Article 26 of UNCLOS explicitly prohibits states from charging fees for mere passage. 

2. Iran’s Legal Counter-Argument

Iran’s position challenges this global consensus based on its specific treaty status: 

  • Non-Ratification: Iran signed UNCLOS in 1982 but never ratified it. Tehran argues that transit passage is a “quid pro quo” for treaty members only and does not apply to non-parties.
  • Innocent Passage vs. Transit Passage: Iran maintains that only the more restrictive Innocent Passage regime applies. This would legally allow them to:
    • Require prior authorization for warships and submarines.
    • Temporarily suspend passage for national security reasons.
  • Wartime Justifications: Recently, Iranian officials have argued that ongoing hostilities (the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis) allow for “wartime rules” that supersede peacetime treaties. 

3. Current 2026 Crisis Developments

As of April 2026, Iran has taken several steps that most legal experts from organizations like Just Security and TRT World view as violations of international law:

  • Selective Passage: Iran has reportedly blocked ships linked to the U.S., Israel, and their allies while allowing “friendly” nations like China and Russia to pass.
  • Transit Tolls: Reports indicate Iran is drafting legislation to charge tolls (reportedly up to $2 million per transit) for “maritime security” services.
  • Naval Mining: Allegations of naval mining have surfaced; while not strictly illegal in war, mining an international strait in a way that blocks neutral shipping is widely considered a violation of the San Remo Manual and Hague Convention. 

07 April 2026

Fact or Hyperbole- Considering Iranian 'War Crimes' and 'The End of a Civilization' Tonight

 President Trump has said that he will wipe out a civilization tonight by bombing power plants and bridges in Iran unless they accept a peace proposal and open the Strait of Hormuz to everyone. Democrats are claiming Trump is planning a war crime. Pres Trump says the Iranian 'civilization' will never rise again.

That is good news for those worried about the Achaemenid,  Parthian, and Sasanian Empires.

Bridges and power plants are of military value. Eisenhower built the interstates for defense reasons to move military vehicles around quickly. Iran's military-industrial complex needs power to produce weapons and light bulbs to see maps at night. The next generation of Iranians may use more solar panels. Toynbee said there is just one world civilization now- so one isn't going to be destroyed-hyperbole as usual.

A cease-fire was finally struck late in the day before the bombing reached its apex. There is a two week cessation of hostilities in order to allow a stronger agreement to be found. If President Trump does decide to renew the engagement two weeks from today, it would be good if he would spare the Mount Sabalan geothermal plant not too far from Tabriz. It only opened in December 2025 and is an example of sustainable energy that will outlast the fossil fuel area and a good example for people relying on fossil fuels for heating and transportation; there are alternative energy sources.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahand






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