President Trump does not pursue wealth with half measures, yet he appears to approach ending the wars in Ukraine and Iran with precisely that—half measures. By the time he finishes his term, the United States may carry roughly $45 trillion in national debt. That figure could surge 200–300% if the dollar collapses following the end of the petrodollar system and a shift toward petroyuan dominance.
Trump seems to thrive on these high-stakes, emergent situations. Meanwhile, President Zelensky has asked the West for nuclear weapons to offset Russia’s nuclear advantage. He apparently seeks to upgrade Ukraine’s existing MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) policy into an active nuclear exchange with Russia. If Moscow were vaporized, Russia would almost certainly retaliate with an all-out strike involving thousands of nuclear warheads against the West. The Russians have deep institutional experience with MAD doctrine; handing nuclear weapons to Zelensky is a losing hand to play.
The situation in Iran is equally perilous. The original Aryan nation—Iran derives from the word “Aryan”—is led by descendants of the ancient Persian and Parthian Empires. (The last Shah of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, bore a name meaning “Parthian.”) Iran is fighting on its home ground, backed by Russia, China, and other allies, in what is likely to become a protracted war of resistance against U.S. efforts to control the Strait of Hormuz.
Even basic Toyota pickups can transport Russian, Chinese, and Iranian missiles with a 25-mile range to positions threatening the Strait. There are dozens of additional ways to deliver force capable of sinking oil supertankers. Joined by fanatical Shi’a fighters, the opposition will be more than happy to tie the United States down in the Persian Gulf for a decade of costly conflict, with enormous opportunity costs for America.
This war might never have escalated had the U.S. ended sanctions on Russia and restored normal commercial and diplomatic relations. Without such pressure, Russia would have had far less motivation to divert Western attention and resources toward the Middle East. Ukraine’s advance has already slowed, partly because Starlink has been provided exclusively to Ukrainian forces. A U.S.-brokered settlement along the Dnipro River region could have ended the conflict earlier.
Iranians themselves are divided in their political preferences. Roughly 30% support restoration of the monarchy, 30% strongly oppose it, and another 30% are indifferent. Historically, Iran has been ruled in rotation by civilians, the military, and theocrats, with leadership shifting through different approaches to internal change. No one can confidently predict the outcome of political upheaval there. Leftists who helped bring Ayatollah Khomeini to power in the 1979 revolution were quickly liquidated when he suppressed the Iranian communist party (Tudeh). The late Shah harbored ambitions to dominate the region but was thwarted. Ordinary Iranians once worked in U.S.-linked hospitals yet were denied equal treatment, breeding resentment. Britain may still harbor hopes of reclaiming influence over Iranian oil fields.
In summary, as Laurel and Hardy might have put it: “Well, here’s another fine mess you’ve gotten me into.”Democrats continue to push for open borders and, through movements like “No Kings,” seek to depose what they view as the American monarchy under Trump. The only apparent hope—if Democrats regain power—is that they might implement a $30 trillion anti-global warming program, pushing total U.S. public debt toward $75 trillion, plus the routine addition of another trillion dollars annually through deficit spending.
Fundamentally, there is little serious leadership competition for the Republican “Kings” who at least defend national borders and add less to the national debt. Democrats are disingenuous about a sustainable economy and politics; they too are reliant on petrodollar politics. Solar panels dropped in price 50% because the Chinese mixed communist politics combined with free enterprise over-produced solar panels. Now they may find windfall profits and political influence gain by saturating the planet and third world with solar panels while the cost of oil rises.
What President Trump could do more decisively is target Iran’s oil export capacity, reducing it to roughly 300,000 barrels per day—the amount currently exported via a pipeline safely away from the Strait of Hormuz. About 95% of Iran’s oil production flows through Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf. Reducing that facility to rubble would cripple Iran’s ability to finance new weapons purchases, which would be strategically useful in any protracted conflict where the Strait is likely to remain contested or closed to U.S. allies anyway.
It is positive that Iran’s nuclear weapons program has been severely damaged. Now is the time to halt Iranian oil sales entirely and, in the event of a post-theocratic government, offer targeted loans or assistance so Iran can purchase Chinese-made solar panels and accelerate a practical transition to electric vehicles and domestically produced power.
