Musk's Starlink Chose Sides for Ukraine, Helps Cost of Oil Increase

When Elon Musk decided to choose sides and block Russian access to Starlink for guidance and to enable Ukraine to use it to attack Russia he flipped the script for attacking by air and sea. Russia is still doing ok, yet Ukraine is blocking the flow of oil to Europe from Russia that crosses Ukraine. With Russia off starlink he is confident that he can get enough leverage on Europe to keep Ukraine in the game of war- even if it costs Europe billions and billions in higher oil and gas prices to Europeans. Maybe Zelenski is a radical environmentalist conscientious objector to the use of fossil fuels in Europe. He must be the only European politician who believes in atmospheric heating unfortunately.

Elon Musk does have a diversified portfolio of interests. Americans too though will soon experience higher prices at the pump. Musk could at least deny Ukraine use of Starlink and reduce the leverage Zelenski has to keep his oil embargo intact with attacks on oil refineries and infrastructure in Russia. One might wonder if Iran and/or allies are using Starlink to attack U.S. and Persian Gulf states targets in the Middle East and if Mexican drug cartels use Starlink to bring in contraband under the radar. It is conceivable that one day Starlink may be the guidance system for delivery of nuclear weapons packages. It is interesting that the very rich have become direct influencers of the course of wars.

It not unlikely that Starlink is exploited by terrorists and militaries all over the world for military guidance on a budget for lethal weapons, and weapons of mass destruction systems; enabling Elon Musk to determine who will and won't be able to use the military satellite web in first strike and sustainable conflict actions with Starlink.

Grok-Both Ukrainian and Russian forces have integrated Starlink into their FPV (First Person View) drone operations during the ongoing conflict, primarily for real-time video feeds, command and control (C2), and bypassing electronic warfare (EW) jamming. This allows operators to pilot drones with high precision over extended ranges, often from safe locations far from the front lines. However, the systems aren't foolproof—Starlink's high-speed, low-latency connectivity is key, but it requires terminals that can be bulky for smaller drones, leading to adaptations like strapping mini-terminals or using ground-based relays. Below, I'll break it down based on reported tactics from both sides, focusing on cross-border or deep strikes as per your query. Note that "inside each nation" likely refers to Ukrainians striking targets within Russia (e.g., border regions or occupied areas) and Russians targeting deep inside Ukraine.

Ukrainian FPV Operators' Use of Starlink

Ukrainian forces have relied heavily on Starlink since early in the war for military communications, including FPV drone strikes. It's provided through official channels (tens of thousands of terminals donated or contracted via SpaceX and allies), enabling resilient, jam-resistant links that traditional radio/GPS systems can't match.

Core Mechanism: Operators use Starlink for live video streaming from reconnaissance drones (e.g., Mavics) to FPV strike teams and commanders. This creates a "kill chain" where real-time imagery identifies targets, corrects artillery fire, and guides FPV kamikaze drones to impact. Encrypted group chats via Starlink connect field units to HQs, allowing uploads of target photos/videos for rapid decision-making. For accuracy, the low-latency connection (under 100ms) lets pilots see through the drone's camera in real-time, adjusting for wind, evasion, or last-second targeting—crucial for hitting moving vehicles or positions inside Russia.

Adaptations for Deep Strikes: To attack targets inside Russia (e.g., border oblasts like Belgorod or Kursk, or even deeper via long-range drones), Ukrainians strap compact Starlink terminals (like the Mini) directly onto larger fixed-wing drones or use mothership setups where a carrier drone transports smaller FPVs. This extends range beyond 30-50km (typical radio limits) to 100-300km+, bypassing Russian EW by routing control signals via satellite. Operators often work from remote offices (e.g., in Kyiv Oblast) with Starlink hubs, tracking intel-fed targets and launching strikes without line-of-sight needs. Examples include strikes on Russian airbases or infrastructure, where Starlink enabled AI-assisted targeting and swarm tactics.

Limitations and Examples: Early attempts, like the 2022 Black Sea drone attacks on Russian ships, were hampered when Musk restricted coverage near Crimea to avoid escalation. But by 2025-2026, Ukrainians developed "life hacks" like fiber-optic tethers or hybrid systems to maintain connectivity. A notable case: FPV strikes on Russian soldiers setting up Wi-Fi bridges inside Russia, using Starlink for precise, real-time piloting.

Overall, Starlink gives Ukraine an edge in asymmetric warfare, turning commercial tech into a force multiplier for deep, accurate incursions.

Russian FPV Operators' Use of Starlink (Pre-Cutoff)

Russians accessed Starlink illicitly—smuggled via third countries (e.g., UAE, Turkey) and registered under proxies—despite U.S. sanctions and SpaceX denials of cooperation. By late 2025, they consumed up to 75% of Starlink traffic in Ukraine for military purposes, including FPV ops.

Core Mechanism: Similar to Ukraine, Russians mounted Starlink terminals on drones (e.g., Molniya-series FPVs) for EW-resistant C2, extending ranges to 100-500km and enabling real-time piloting from inside Russia. This bypassed Ukrainian jamming, allowing precise strikes on moving targets like trains or vehicles deep inside Ukraine (e.g., Dnipro, Kharkiv regions). Operators used the connection for video feeds, telemetry, and swarm coordination, often via Rubikon Center units.

Adaptations for Deep Strikes: Mothership drones (e.g., Gerbera or Molniya carriers) transported Starlink-equipped FPVs deeper into Ukraine, overcoming range/EW limits for "battlefield air interdiction" effects—isolating logistics and hitting civilians/military alike up to 600km. Terminals were rigged with explosives to self-destruct on downed drones. Examples: January 2026 strikes on Ukrainian highways (E-50) and a train in Kharkiv, killing civilians, using Starlink for accuracy.

Limitations and Examples: Starlink made drones "unjammable" but vulnerable to detection; Ukrainians downed hundreds, recovering terminals. Units like the 83rd Air Assault Brigade used it systematically.

Musk's 2026 Restrictions and Impact on Russian Advances

In early February 2026, following requests from Ukraine's Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, Elon Musk and SpaceX implemented stricter controls: whitelisting only verified Ukrainian terminals (via DELTA/Diia systems), disabling unauthorized ones in occupied areas, and shutting down terminals moving over 90km/h (to block drone-mounted use). This effectively cut off Russian access, as their terminals were unregistered/smuggled.

Immediate Effects: Russian drone strikes dropped sharply; FPV ops became less precise and shorter-range. Command collapsed in some sectors, leading to friendly fire (e.g., 12 soldiers killed in Zaporizhzhia) and halted advances. Ukrainians reported a "catastrophe" for Russia, with reduced bombardments and liberated areas (over 400 sq km, 8 villages in the first weeks).

Broader Impact: Russian ground advances slowed noticeably (first net Ukrainian gains since 2023), with troops facing comms blackouts and shifting to inferior alternatives like Wi-Fi bridges, tethered balloons, fiber-optics, or mesh networks. These are more vulnerable—Ukrainians target them with drones, killing operators climbing towers. By March 2026 (one month in), Russia admitted terminals were offline but downplayed it; analysts say it's hampered ops more than admitted, though adaptations (e.g., glide bombs) continue.

This shift highlights how private tech like Starlink has become a pivotal factor in modern warfare, tilting dynamics when access is controlled. 

There are multiple reports of Mexican cartels incorporating Starlink for operational advantages. Factions like the Sinaloa Cartel (including rival groups like Los Chapitos and Mayo Zambada's crew) have been found using terminals for communication in remote areas during turf wars, often mounted on vehicles or seized alongside weapons and drones. Cartels have also equipped "narco subs" (semisubmersible vessels for smuggling) with Starlink antennas for remote navigation—Colombia's navy seized the first unmanned one in the Caribbean in 2025, believed to be a Gulf Clan test run. This tech helps them evade detection and coordinate in areas with poor traditional internet. SpaceX has faced scrutiny over this, including a lost $2.2B contract in Mexico after Musk's tweets about a billionaire possibly linked to cartels. Cartels are adapting fast, even learning from Ukraine's drone tactics.

Your point about the ultra-rich influencing wars is spot-on—figures like Musk wield unprecedented power through tech like Starlink, which can tip scales in conflicts (e.g., enabling Ukraine's defenses or aiding Iranian dissidents). It's been exploited by non-state actors (hackers, cartels, terrorists) for comms on a budget, but SpaceX actively polices against military weaponization in the commercial network. This creates a security dilemma: As the U.S. leverages it, others (like China or Russia) might accelerate their own constellations or countermeasures, potentially destabilizing space. Regarding Ukraine, Musk has suggested limiting Starlink to reduce escalation (e.g., over refinery attacks affecting global oil), but it's still provided under Pentagon contracts—balancing humanitarian aid with avoiding direct war involvement. On oil prices: U.S. drivers might see hikes from Middle East tensions, but that's tied more to broader geopolitics than Starlink alone

Energy Sanctions, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Ukraine War

 Reliance upon Middle East oil and the imposition of sanctions on Russian oil have destabilized the global economy. Iran's tactically advantageous position on the Strait of Hormuz enables it to attack oil and gas shipping traffic to the world and potentially bring it to a standstill. Interestingly, the U.S. Navy’s substantial capability for war is not necessarily able to adequately defend oil tankers from cheap and plentiful drone and missile attacks launched from the coast, small fast-attack boats, and possibly naval drones.

Even China—the major buyer of Iranian oil—is affected by the U.S. naval counterattack on Iranian oil tankers moving through the Strait on their way to China. China will need to buy more Russian oil and gas, as will Europe, to replenish the loss of Persian Gulf state oil.

Plainly the West's decision to wage prolonged confrontation with Russia in order to expand Ukraine and NATO—that is, to refuse recognition of traditionally Russian territories and interests—is counterproductive and self-destructive, as any rational person should have anticipated. Rebuilding the Nord Stream gas pipeline from Russia and the Druzhba (“Friendship”) pipeline to Central Europe, originally built in the 1960s, would allow Europe to be liberated from the perpetual vulnerability of an oil transport corridor passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Russia would likely be willing to settle the Ukraine conflict with the surrender of the Donbas and Zaporizhzhia regions to its slowly advancing special military operation. Land east of the Dnipro River could become largely Russian in order to reconcile historical realities with political facts. Russia's vast natural resources, combined with a cooperative Euro-American-Russian economic relationship, would provide a far more stable and affordable global fossil fuel supply. As it stands, the Ukraine war is a virtually insane luxury that Europe should not want to afford—not to mention the escalation of nuclear threats and the broader damage to the international economy.

Select irrational forces of the left will also seek to blame President Trump for the Iran war, since he determined that Iran's efforts to redevelop nuclear weapons facilities needed to be curtailed. Iran was able to leverage the Ukraine war itself to build up its nuclear capacity, knowing it possessed the strategic leverage of potentially cutting off oil supplies to much of the world. When I asked an AI system how much oil Alaska can presently produce per day—roughly 477,000 barrels (possibly increasing to around 600,000 with additional effort)—and asked something about the Iran conflict, the Gemini AI system wrote something about a pedophile causing the Iran war for no good reason. It then became evident that AI systems themselves can be influenced by ideological programmers. When I challenged the answer, it simply replied, “no document found.”

The world is in a very dangerous and strange geopolitical place today. Oil could easily rise above $200 per barrel. At the same time, China will likely continue radically increasing the production of solar technologies and electric vehicles. Businesses may also shift toward electric vehicle fleets to reduce fuel costs.

It is therefore entirely plausible that the Ukraine conflict could be settled relatively quickly through the end of sanctions on Russia and the restoration of normal political and economic relations between the West and Russia—provided Russia offers assurances that it will not advance military power beyond the territories taken during the Special Military Operation.

Even then, Persian Gulf shipping could remain vulnerable for years. Irregular attackers, rogue militias, and leftover ordnance from past conflicts could continue to threaten the region's shipping lanes long after the formal end of hostilities.

Global oil prices reached $147 per barrel in 2008 during the commodities crisis. Adjusted for inflation, that is roughly $200 per barrel, so the possibility of $200–$300 oil exists if sanctions on Russia continue and the Strait of Hormuz remains a strategic chokepoint. The Alaska oil pipeline from the North Slope was developed as a consequence of the 1973 Arab oil embargo, which caused oil prices to jump from $3 per barrel to $12 per barrel—a 300% increase.

The west needs to learn to tolerate success and victory. It failed to do that when Russia and China accepted at least capitalism after the end of the Cold War and Russia actually began implementing constitutional democracy. Political actors worked hard to restore the antipathy and could never fully actually and support rational sharing with Russia of its traditional Ukraine land and economic interests and instead expanded N.A.T.O. to Russia's borders. If the west cannot tolerate successful policy redirection from the top as President Reagan, RIchard Nixon and Henry Kissinger catalyzed it is consistent that it would compile 40 trillion dollars of public debt and build toward economic chaos globally.

Ukraine and Iran's Oil Embargoes of War Bite

Like the 70s Arab oil embargo; Europe, Asia and elsewhere are experiencing a de facto oil embargo as a consequence of Ukraine's decision not to allow Russian oil exports. That policy was supported by EU and American sanctions. France apparently used submarines to sink civilian ships loaded with Russian oil.

   Iran has of course stopped vessels in the Persian Gulf and Indian ocean vessels carrying mid-east oil or seeking to load up mid-east crude from transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

  The USA probably can produce oil sufficient for itself with vast reserves and increases in oil production while the global embargo persists- if the oil wasn't already sold to foreign countries seeking to buy prime crude and increase global warming gases simultaneously.

Iran-American War to Drive Up per-Barrel Oil Price

The Iranian war is driving up oil prices and as a logical consequence of the Persian Gulf largely being off-line since oil tankers travelling it have a high risk of being sunk by Iranian missiles and drones. With Iran's oil and gas offline as well as Russian oil being proscribed with sanctions, and Venezuelan oil under the control of the U.S. government indirectly, several primary global oil supplies are temporarily reduced. Supply and demand is still in effect with the basic mitigating element being invention; shortages stimulate inventions of alternative product.

Ukraine stopped Russian petroleum products from flowing to Hungary and the Czech Republic, and plans to destroy pipelines in the Black Sea reaching Turkey- those are additional ways to put the squeeze upon Europe and Russia. Because Iran attacked a British naval post on Cyprus the U.K. has said it will support the U.S.-Israel war on Iran. Germany has also expressed an intention to provide support to the forces seeking to stop Iran's nuclear weapons development. The high cost of gas at the pump in the U.S.A. may agitate Democrats and Zelensky hoping for a Republican loss in the mid-term elections in November, yet the cost of oil may be plummeting before November when voters decide with wallets and purses hoping Democrats as the sole alternative bring a deflating effect for consumers; though billions and billions would be spent on day care.

France has decided to make a nuclear shell game with nuclear armed aircraft that it will loan to other European countries including it seems, Ukraine. That is a radical attack on the nuclear containment policy that was created during the Cold War and supported by Russians and Americans. France has created a loose nukes policy that will make it very difficult for Russia to track possible nuclear attack vectors upon Moscow and other strategic targets. The French policy, given the short time span that a hypersonic nuclear armed missile needs to reach Moscow, will induct a policy revision for Moscow's use of nuclear weapons; response to attack may not leave enough time to counterattack. So preemptive first strikes on select European targets may become reflexive for Russia's strategic nuclear force. The french nuclear airportr shell game will make it challenging to know which aircraft taking flight is making a nuclear strike on Russia. If such aircraft are located in Ukraine- given Zelenski's record, Russia may have little choice besides engaging in nuclear war with Europe. SInce Russia hasn't used nuclear weapons in the war and had no intention to except for real disaster, the French Loose nukes shell game policy is in no way a deterrent. It is instead a provocation for a first strike by Russia on Paris and additional nuclear targets of France.

Saudi Arabia's main refining and loading terminal is also on the Persian Gulf- Ras Tanura. Ninety percent of Saudi oil is exported through the Persian Gulf and with Saudi oil shipments temporarily suspended because of drone attacks on the refinery and on ships, even with a surfeit of world oil production normally, during the Iran and Ukraine wars oil prices are anticipated to go north of 100 dollars per barrel. That is good news for red states and yet not too bad for blue as they move more toward electric vehicles. The cost of sunshine is not expected to increase in 2026 unless more cloudy days develop.

EU Chooses War Against Russia in Ukraine for 2026; Pres Trump Eyeballs Conflict With the Maduro Regime

 EU leaders meeting in Germany decided to fight with Russia in Ukraine with Ukrainians and agreed to provide billions more in weapons to the corrupt Ukrainian Government. Germany alone said it will send 11 billion dollars in weapons next year. Canada too-  chose to up the ante for World War Three and will send 30 million dollars in arms.

The borderlands known as Ukraine have been a bone of contention  with sekect Western European nations for centuries, Russia normally owns or administrates the region and many Russians live there. For Europe to own the borderlands in for Russia, and unacceptable hegemony presenting an avalanche level potential military, existentialist threat.

European belligerence is a normal consequence of EU and N.A.T.O. expansion after the end of the Cold War 1.0. Europe has already annexed N.A.T.O. to be its military force for the EU and is presently throwing it's weight around. It is possible to consider a future USA vs European NATO as a theoretical future possibility. As nuclear war is no longer unthinkable thanks to Europe, neither is that. The United States under the pragmatic Trump administration is withdrawing from support for the European driven war and has sought to bring peace to the senseless violence.

  Instead of making a meaningful effort for peace in Ukraine and in effect sharing the borderlands with Russia along the Dnepro River with an end to sanctions and Ukraine made into a free trade enterprise zone along environmental economic lines with the EU administering the Ukrainian half until a capable, non-corrupt government can be found for it, and Russia the Russian half that becomes part of Russia as long as the rivers run and radiation levels are below that which precludes the existence of human life, European war leaders have decided to make the year 2026 one of escalation for the crumbling Ukrainian shill. The EU has emerged as the main obstacle to peace and threat to incite World War Three.

The United States apparently will be busy engaged in some sort of conflict with the inimical, yippish government of Venezuela under the power of the Maduro regime that I suppose, the Trump administration wants to change if it cannot persuade the Maduro regime to return assets seized by the socialist-communist evolution of Hugo Chavez. President Trump for some reason likes oil companies and feels that as executive he need go  about recovering lost oil company assets taken forcibly by socialists . Maduro does seem as uninterested in alternative energy as President Trump. In regard to fuel preference the coming conflict is dino vs dino rather than mano y mano.

Europe's Military Attacking Russian Ships Globally

Unknown European powers have started a global wolfpack-style war sinking Russian oil tankers probably with an intention to damage Russian oil sales. Selling oil help Russia pay for its special military operation to recover land lost to the west during the 1991 carpet bagging era following the Soviet collapse.

Russian ships have been sunk in the Black Sea off the coast of Senegal, West Africa in recent days. That escalation to a global battle changes things significantly; risking Russian responses that could be attacks on England, France or Germany- the most likely perpetrators of the expansion of the theater of war.

With Russian military forces making slow, steady progress advancing toward the Dnepro River- a simple demarcation line to end the conflict, the Trump administration has sought to bring both sides to agreement on ending the war, yet the Western powers backing Ukraine have no intention of allowing peace to occur unless it is on their terms. Regardless of the fact that a neutral Ukraine with reduced exterior borders where Russia and the West could resume East-West trade and normal commerce would be best for all concerned, the corruption of Ukraine's government and surreptitious will of the Western European traditional powers to own all of Ukraine and intimidate Russia with military forces on Russia's border such that they support Ukraine's war efforts vociferously have continued the death machine of thousands locked into combat.

Peace with Russia can only occur with international recognition of a reduced Ukraine and Russia recovering its former Ukraine lands and a neutral, demilitarized Ukraine that poses no threat to East or West. Ukraine as the middle ground or borderland should recover quickly enough and prosper from international trade. The alternative of moving further down the road to global disaster is a reprehensible one. If Russia chooses to retaliate by sinking western ships arriving at European ports that alone could begin a collapse of the world economy and swift advance toward nuclear war. One feels that European leadership have their heads up their arses regarding the opportunity cost of pursuing the course of fomenting continued war instead of peace.

It may be that the rampant godless atheist trend of Europe away from faith has naturally brought the leaders to cluster into claves of violence and aggressive expansion Eastward toward Russia. They may feel entitled with natural exuberance such that developing hegemony over Russia and its vast natural resources is their right. U.S. Presidents have not, since the end of the Cold War, perhaps with the exception of President Trump, recalibrated their view and opinion of European military and political increase and unification, They tended to be blind to the implicit dangers of a very large, recrudescent European military that has a history of being the source of all global wars tamed only a little by the devastation of Europe in the two World Wars of the 20th century.

Destruction of Russian Oil Productiom Likely to Benefit China

Ukraine’s continuing destruction of Russian oil refineries is causing shortages and driving up the price of gas to consumers. If Ukrainian drones continue to wreak havoc on Russian oil production it is possible that the Kremlin may seek relief and import hundreds of thousands of Chinese workers and engineers to repair devastated oil infrastructure in exchange for a deal such as a full share of free fuel from fuel production facilities  brought back online.

   If China can get Russian oil and gas for a quarter of the present market cost, that would be a boon for the Chinese economy. It would also reduce the unemployment rate in China

It may slso simulate new deals to build  pipelines across Afghanistan to India in addition to those planned for China.

   While the West drives Russia east in this major realignment of global economics Ukraine is being reduced to rubble, Oreshnik missiles are being deployed to Belarus and President Trump has flip flopped to believe a war against Rusdia in Ukraine can be one. The conflict does continue to escalate toward Worrld War Three.

https://youtu.be/AMyzP1HsIjw?si=IfMepmLQDZyUNal7Jeff Sachs on the War Situation

President Trump Applies Retardent on U.S. Energy Development, Diversification and Competitiveness

 President Trump's spin to terminate offshore wind power, electric vehicles, solar and battery development means the nation will lag behind intelligent Chinese competition to dominate the world energy production and sales market. Offshore wind farm development was set to produce 56,000 jobs by 2030. 

Poor trade relations with the BRIC nation also means the U.S.A. will not only be retarded in developing product, it will also lose market share to the majority of the world's population in the developing nations. A prevailing selection of the primary form of energy mode should be made with ecological criteria as well as economic, rather than simply economic reasons when possible.

That is a predictable course of events historically. The BRIC nations with the exception of Russia haven't so much economic establishment based on old infrastructure and are not reluctant to take up new technology to comprise their own economic development. Russia has a new form of government- fewer than 50 years old, so its economic infrastructure is similar to that of other BRIC nations in not having long-established concentrated wealth existing to retard domestic and international economic change.

The late historian Arnold Toynbee observed that changing the domestic form of economic is a task that is the most challenging to established civilizations. They neither change their form of government or economic establishment and thus eventually fail to be competitive with newer, emerging societies.

https://gcaptain.com/trumps-wind-farm-halts-threatens-jobs-support-of-blue-collar-workers/

Oil is the old establishment President Trump champions. Fossil fuel exhausts are dangerous for global health and costly, while the price of solar panels is dropping. Producing electricity at home off grid is the likely future for the majority of Americans if they survive the lunacy of nuclear war and global warming risks presented through the retarded leadership of the U.S. Government executive branch for several terms consecutively.

A Chinese company has developed sodium batteries at ten percent of the cost of lithium batteries that may change the world's energy storage, and the Chinese are also the leading developer of solar panels useful for many reasons in the sunny global warming era. Wind farms offshore will never produce oil spills like that of the Deep Water Horizon explosion in 2010 that devastated the Gulf of America shoreline. If the Ukraine war has proven anything it is that oil production facilities are among the first targets of conflicts. Offshore American oil facilities will be targeted in any future war if humans survive the initial attacks from biological vectors not detected by a gutted CDC.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/5477116-cdc-leadership-crisis-public-health/