Showing posts with label Saudi. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Saudi. Show all posts

09 April 2026

Europe is in the Middle of Confusion Without Clear Goals (Besides Expansion)

The Trump administration should realize that Iran and Ukraine both stall for time, using that interval to seek political leverage and acquire additional weapons.

Europeans often appear as a confused lot, struggling with a diluted sense of national identity that leaves them uncertain about what truly serves their long-term interests as Europeans. Historically accustomed to conflicts with fellow nations, they seem to have elevated that pattern through the structures of the European Union. In effect, President Clinton handed Ukraine over to Western Europe, yet Western Europe shows little willingness to release it or share it with Russia—its rightful owner in this view.

The American left similarly seems adrift, lacking coherent leadership or a clear vision for the future. What it pursues as a rational agenda often resembles treason in practice: prioritizing foreign interests over American ones, or aligning with the political goals of European leftists at the expense of U.S. priorities. Democrats and Governor Newsom appear ready to tolerate a Mexico influenced by drug cartels rather than firmly defend U.S. borders. They frame basic measures like requiring a valid state or federal ID for voting as “voter suppression.” Ukraine and Iran, in turn, skillfully exploit these internal divisions and anti-Republican reflexes.

Europeans, one might reflect, fail to grasp that they themselves have become a primary force of division in today’s world. By contrast, America has achieved relatively good race relations in recent decades, with equal opportunity and wages largely normalized—yet partisan animosity persists. European leadership prefers to direct its hostility toward Russia rather than pursue a pragmatic sharing of Ukraine. Driving a wedge between the West and Russia risks isolating Europe and the United States from deeper BRICS economic integration, while encouraging the growth of a parallel rival market.

Recent European efforts to restrict Russian oil tankers—potentially blocking access through the North Sea, English Channel, Black Sea, and Mediterranean—illustrate this confusion. Such measures could easily backfire, leaving Europe itself more vulnerable to energy shortages by cutting off its own supply routes. Uniting Russia, China, France, and Spain in opposition to the United States and Western Europe hardly seems like a strategic masterstroke. This outcome stems largely from Western Europe’s reluctance to compromise on Ukraine, perhaps along approximate Dnepro boundaries.

It remains possible that, in a future crisis, the United States might withhold support for European defense and opt for neutrality rather than risk entanglement in a World War Three on the continent. Letting Europe burn and not rebuilding it with another Marshall Plan would confer economic advantage onto Americans rather than Europeans.

Alternatively, a more circumspective path—sharing Ukraine equitably, renormalizing relations with Russia, and fully integrating it into the Western economic sphere—could offer the surest route to lasting peace in Europe and beyond. Deep economic interdependence provides a powerful form of transparency and deterrence: it becomes far more difficult to conceal war preparations when potential adversaries are daily business partners. History shows that rhetoric against a designated foe often escalates dangerously in the absence of such ties, as seen in German propaganda leading up to Kristallnacht and the Holocaust.

Bringing Russia into comprehensive economic integration with the West would likely serve as the strongest bulwark against renewed Muslim terrorism and any Chinese adventurism toward Taiwan. After all, China’s leadership appears foremost concerned with raising the living standards of its citizens. Detached somewhat from both Russia and the West, Beijing would be far less inclined to gamble its economy on a high-risk conflict over Taiwan.

02 March 2026

Iran-American War to Drive Up per-Barrel Oil Price

The Iranian war is driving up oil prices and as a logical consequence of the Persian Gulf largely being off-line since oil tankers travelling it have a high risk of being sunk by Iranian missiles and drones. With Iran's oil and gas offline as well as Russian oil being proscribed with sanctions, and Venezuelan oil under the control of the U.S. government indirectly, several primary global oil supplies are temporarily reduced. Supply and demand is still in effect with the basic mitigating element being invention; shortages stimulate inventions of alternative product.

Ukraine stopped Russian petroleum products from flowing to Hungary and the Czech Republic, and plans to destroy pipelines in the Black Sea reaching Turkey- those are additional ways to put the squeeze upon Europe and Russia. Because Iran attacked a British naval post on Cyprus the U.K. has said it will support the U.S.-Israel war on Iran. Germany has also expressed an intention to provide support to the forces seeking to stop Iran's nuclear weapons development. The high cost of gas at the pump in the U.S.A. may agitate Democrats and Zelensky hoping for a Republican loss in the mid-term elections in November, yet the cost of oil may be plummeting before November when voters decide with wallets and purses hoping Democrats as the sole alternative bring a deflating effect for consumers; though billions and billions would be spent on day care.

France has decided to make a nuclear shell game with nuclear armed aircraft that it will loan to other European countries including it seems, Ukraine. That is a radical attack on the nuclear containment policy that was created during the Cold War and supported by Russians and Americans. France has created a loose nukes policy that will make it very difficult for Russia to track possible nuclear attack vectors upon Moscow and other strategic targets. The French policy, given the short time span that a hypersonic nuclear armed missile needs to reach Moscow, will induct a policy revision for Moscow's use of nuclear weapons; response to attack may not leave enough time to counterattack. So preemptive first strikes on select European targets may become reflexive for Russia's strategic nuclear force. The french nuclear airportr shell game will make it challenging to know which aircraft taking flight is making a nuclear strike on Russia. If such aircraft are located in Ukraine- given Zelenski's record, Russia may have little choice besides engaging in nuclear war with Europe. SInce Russia hasn't used nuclear weapons in the war and had no intention to except for real disaster, the French Loose nukes shell game policy is in no way a deterrent. It is instead a provocation for a first strike by Russia on Paris and additional nuclear targets of France.

Saudi Arabia's main refining and loading terminal is also on the Persian Gulf- Ras Tanura. Ninety percent of Saudi oil is exported through the Persian Gulf and with Saudi oil shipments temporarily suspended because of drone attacks on the refinery and on ships, even with a surfeit of world oil production normally, during the Iran and Ukraine wars oil prices are anticipated to go north of 100 dollars per barrel. That is good news for red states and yet not too bad for blue as they move more toward electric vehicles. The cost of sunshine is not expected to increase in 2026 unless more cloudy days develop.