Much has been made by Turkey's President Gul and other partisan
advocates for the termination of the Assad Regime and the Alawite rule
of Syria of some overspill of Syrian artillery fire upon rebel
sanctuaries just over the border in Turkey. Civil wars are not good
things, yet no one believes that Syria has the slightest intention of
invading or conquering Turkey. The saber rattling by Turkey and its
copious shelling of Syria in retaliation hasn't any need of escalating
to anything beyond the fringe friction of a civil war.
Turkey as a
N.A.T.O. ally would receive full European and U.S. support if it is
needed to defend Turkey from conquest by Syria. Yet we know that Syria
has plenty of troubles surviving as it is from the full Sunni
reinforcement of the rebels in Syria.
Turkey is a hot and cold
participant in N.A.T.O. They were excellent allies during the cold war
yet were also allies of Germany in the first world war and only neutrals
in the second because they were not able to do anything else. Turkey
has not been a continually participating nation in the war to spend a
lot of money and drive out Al Qa'eda from Afghanistan, and treat out
Middle Eastern Allies in Israel with a little rudeness.
The Obama
administration has dome much to encourage the development of rebellion
in Syria the past year with condemnation of the Assad government
followed by lamentations over the civilian casualties that only occurred
because the rebel movement continued to grow along with the reaction
by the Syrian government against it. It probably would be a mistake for
the Syrian rebels to think that the Obama Government or N.A.T.O. will
actually send troops or aircraft to hand the victory to the rebels.
Neither should Turkey believe that it might persuade N.A.T.O. to green
light a Turkish invasion of Syria. Restoration of the Ottoman Empire in
part is not in the interests of N.A.T.O. or the United States.
The
legal paradigm for a Turkish invasion of Syria isn't plain. Turkey is
giving sanctuary to Syrian rebels who likely do a good deal of
insurgency organization from there. The Nixon administration sent a
South Vietnamese division into Laos and the plain of Jars without good
results during the Vietnam War to try to eradicate rebel sanctuaries.
The result was not good.
The principle danger to expanded conflict
in the region as the current narrative goes is not Syrian aggression
toward Turkey, but the problem of the 'friends of Syria' finding some
way to send a large conventional military force into Syria so they can
have their own way in actualizing a post-Assad Government. The tragedy
is that so many civilians are dying because the 'friends of Syria' are
determined to drive the non-Sunni Government from power no matter the
cost to others living in Syria.
One needn't like or 'approve' of the Assad Government to believe that national self-determination is a fundamental right of nations.
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