10/8/12

Turkey Looking for Partial Restoration of Ottoman Empire in Syria?

Much has been made by Turkey's President Gul and other partisan advocates for the termination of the Assad Regime and the Alawite rule of Syria of some overspill of Syrian artillery fire upon rebel sanctuaries just over the border in Turkey. Civil wars are not good things, yet no one believes that Syria has the slightest intention of invading or conquering Turkey. The saber rattling by Turkey and its copious shelling of Syria in retaliation hasn't any need of escalating to anything beyond the fringe friction of a civil war.

Turkey as a N.A.T.O. ally would receive full European and U.S. support if it is needed to defend Turkey from conquest by Syria. Yet we know that Syria has plenty of troubles surviving as it is from the full Sunni reinforcement of the rebels in Syria.

Turkey is a hot and cold participant in N.A.T.O. They were excellent allies during the cold war yet were also allies of Germany in the first world war and only neutrals in the second because they were not able to do anything else. Turkey has not been a continually participating nation in the war to spend a lot of money and drive out Al Qa'eda from Afghanistan, and treat out Middle Eastern Allies in Israel with a little rudeness.
The Obama administration has dome much to encourage the development of rebellion in Syria the past year with condemnation of the Assad government followed by lamentations over the civilian casualties that only occurred because the rebel movement continued to grow along with  the reaction by the Syrian government against it. It probably would be a mistake for the Syrian rebels to think that the Obama Government or N.A.T.O. will actually send troops or aircraft to hand the victory to the rebels. Neither should Turkey believe that it might persuade N.A.T.O. to green light a Turkish invasion of Syria. Restoration of the Ottoman Empire in part is not in the interests of N.A.T.O. or the United States.

The legal paradigm for a Turkish invasion of Syria isn't plain. Turkey is giving sanctuary to Syrian rebels who likely do a good deal of insurgency organization from there. The Nixon administration sent a South Vietnamese division into Laos and the plain of Jars without good results during the Vietnam War to try to eradicate rebel sanctuaries. The result was not good.

The principle danger to expanded conflict in the region as the current narrative goes is not Syrian aggression toward Turkey, but the problem of the 'friends of Syria' finding some way to send a large conventional military force into Syria so they can have their own way in actualizing a post-Assad Government. The tragedy is that so many civilians are dying because the 'friends of Syria' are determined to drive the non-Sunni Government from power no matter the cost to others living in Syria.

One needn't like or 'approve' of the Assad Government to believe that national self-determination is a fundamental right of nations.

 http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/08/us-syria-crisis-turkey-idUSBRE8970J320121008?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FtopNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Top+News%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher

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