The tragic Syrian Civil War that developed as a result of Arab Spring momentum has so far cost more than 30,000 lives and has edged toward expanded conflict in Lebanon. Early on President Obama repeatedly called for President Assad to give up leadership of his nation and that perhaps stimulated the organization and support for the rebellion that is largely sectarian. The end of the tunnel does not seem to be in sight yet we may anticipate a couple of additional scenarios that could develop.
If with the support of 'The Friends of Syria' and copious donations of money and material for the rebels from a few nations as well as transient terrorists visiting from several fundamentalist Moslem jihadist movements around the region the Assad-Alawite Government of Syria begins to falter, there could be international support arriving from the substantial military capacity of Hezbollah of Lebanon and Iran.
A Hezbollah intervention in the Syrian conflict would not occur before the Assad was on the ropes because of the damage to the prestige of the Assad Government that was for decades a supporter of Hezbollah of The Lebanon. In the Israel-Hezbollah conflict the Shiite irregulars demonstrated significant capability that would surpass that of the present anti-Assad rebels in Syria.
The potential for a Shia-Sunni proxy conflict in Syria does exist, as power abhors a vacuum and taking over Syria would be desirable for several Moslem elements and variants of Shiism. It is difficult to say where Israel would fit in all that-perhaps Israel would need to occupy Syria at the worst of the civil conflict in order to make a protectorate of it until the U.N. can find some way of fairly apportioning the property to individual deserving citizens. As unlikely as this last scenario is, it is probable that a simple transition to a post-Assad Government isn't inevitable.
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