Why People Think Armed Revolution that Works isn't Possible

The basic paradigm for why a successful revolution is thought to be impossible today goes something like this…Americans haven’t got enough weapons to defeat the military, so a conventional armed revolution isn’t likely unless the US military becomes so decayed and dopey that its quality drops to rotten door status. Corrupt political leaders working wickedness upon the cadres with homosexual drill sergeants who could abuse trainees might be tolerated, yet there might arise something that would offend the soldiers or citizens enough that revolt was deemed useful. If the nation allows in a near majority of Muslims to become radicalized they just might have the capacity to revolt for sundry reasons. Changes can historically occur to nations that ripen the moment for revolution. Under the despotic power of corporatism that can define an enthralled entertainment society or even socialism as democracy, few would jeopardize their comfort and peace.

A thousand soldiers of the 101st Airborne took charge of the Arkansas National Guard in defense of the order for Little Rock Schools to integrate. The local Guard where themselves recalcitrant about staying on the job. A number of political circumstances could arrive to influence the military about taking sides in a civil conflict. Perhaps a successful revolt would require that a large number of US military personnel side with the rebellion.

Nations Today Can Survive the Loss of a National Capital in Conflict

Maybe one must look to Iran and/or Iraq for understanding. In public political demonstrations fanatics sometimes bite the head off snakes. Perhaps that informs us of the theory of destroying a capital and the political leaders in it; without the head the body dies.

The paradigm may be old. It is possible that in modern general wars, should they occur- and general war is still rather improbable concerning the larger powers, discrete and detached, decentralized leadership with ad hoc organizations will survive the loss of a national capital. Smaller nations alternatively, that engage in war, may have much invested demographically and materially in a capital city and could not survive the loss.

China’s civil wars and the Japanese invasion show the adaptability of some economies and polities to reorganization beyond a traditional capital city with mobile leadership. Moscow is generally regarded as the heart of Russia since Kiev was lost to the Germans twice in the 20th century. Russia might nor survive the loss of Moscow as readily as the U.S. would survive possibly with repressed though sorrowful mirth the destruction of Washington D.C. (since the politicians seem inept starting with Bill Clinton).

In ancient times a capital was the real seat of power of royalty or undemocratic ruler. His or her weapons and wealth were concentrated in the capital city whereas today wealth and capital stock is dispersed globally. If a ruler wasn’t able to defend his or her capital it was a test of strength that was lost. If London had fallen, to the Romans or whomever, then the former Celtic tribes were truly cooked.

Consider what would occur if a nation suddenly had a capital conquered by some modern telecommunications firm that infects every phone it sold with bugs that forward information to a foreign government, or if the political leadership communicates on unsecured email servers that let foreign governments ditto every action the slaved government takes; that could be nearly as effective as a physical conquest of a capital though covert.

China Allows US Rice In Yet Skips Protein Rich Soy Beans

If China had dropped the tariff on soy beans that would have been a positive development. Although fried rice is very good, the Chinese might regard it as a useful import. Pragmatism might not count for evaluating the thought of politicians. Soy is vegetable protein and a useful ingredient for a well balanced die, while rice is starch with just 8% protein versus 30–40% for soy beans.

China allows first-ever U.S. rice imports ahead of trade talks

Partial Gov Shutdown Day 6; Why Not Annually Close 30% of the Time

The partial government shutdown may be a good thing in that it demonstrates that change is possible. The Texas legislature has a very brief annual session (140 days every other year). Why shouldn't the U.S. Government have annual partial closures and the Congress meet 30% less time. The challenge would be to become more efficient or get nothing down. Between the Congress and media noise the President has little enough time to actually execute.

Closing Congress and the government more often could save taxpayers and compel Congress persons to work more efficiently.

Magnus Carlsen vs Robert James Fischer

Robert James Fischer had natural genius inherited from his parents. He and Lasker were probably the smartest chess players since Morphy. Robert James was something of a juvenile delinquent in playing chess instead of being a physicist like his father, yet it couldn’t be helped. After winning the world championship, chess may have collapsed like a spent, inflated soufflé to him psychologically- a game of little value. The best player in the world, and not rich- chess didn’t pay much back in the day. Neither had it content besides being a game.

Was Robert James good or Magnus Carlsen as good? The apostle Paul;
Romans 3:10-12 King James Version (KJV)
“10 As it is written, There is none righteous, no, not one:
11 There is none that understandeth, there is none that seeketh after God.
12 They are all gone out of the way, they are together become unprofitable; there is none that doeth good, no, not one.”

Neither Robert James Fischer nor Magnus Carlsen are good. No one is good except God.
Robert James had the virtue of having defeated the Soviet chess machine. That helped end the cold war. The victory was as psychologically as valuable as the U.S. hockey team victory over the Soviet team in the Olympics; it shattered Soviet ideas of their skill level as being in some fields, invincible. I met a guy once who said that those that cannot do math have no soul (not true). Robert James showed the Soviets that Americans have soul.
Magnus Carlsen plays chess in an era where he could purchase the book of the last great Soviet grand master-world chess champ Garry Kasparov. He is champion in an era of political bungling that is reigniting the Cold war and prospects for nuclear war. It is a hyper-vain materialistic era and the avarice for pawns and parsimony of sacrifice is representative of the zeitgeist. Russia has said it has a new hypersonic nuclear weapons delivery vehicle launched from missiles that skips along the top of the atmosphere at five times the speed of sound and is highly maneuverable. The U.S. replies with a billion dollar contract to Lockheed to build one for-themselves. In theory, the rekindling of the Cold War is caused over the pawns of historically Russian Crimea and Ukraine.

Magnus Carlsen can play interesting chess more like that of Garry Kasparov now and then. Super GMs (over 2700 rating) no longer need concern themselves with being caught up in Cold War intrigue. Robert James Fischer probably would have been an outstanding physicist with the right early education. I am not so sure about Magnus Carlsen. I envision his alternative career development as that of an outstanding engineer- rather like Einstein’s son?, who developed an electro-magnetic linear accelerator to launch vehicles into space from the Earth kinetically and further; developed an electromagnetic field launcher in deep space to accelerate vehicles to a significant portion of the speed of light.
Lasker was a great mathematician and some of his work is still relevant.

The OP was- Can Stupid People Learn to Play Expert Chess?

The contrapositive question might be something like; ‘ Can expert chess play prove a person isn’t stupid?’ What about chess engines? They have no intelligence- only lines of programming code, and play expertly. Can a human emulate a chess engine and play expertly though comparatively stupid?

One might require rigorous scientific method and experimental controls in order to investigate the OP. One must locate several FMs that are stupid, or prove that being an expert chess players is stupid (in comparison to inventing a faster than light travel method to get one to a new star system with lots of verdant planets).

I am not certain of what an expert chess player is either. Maybe it is blindfold chess? I wonder if Einstein played blindfold chess? He did beat Robert Oppenheimer in a game, and each were smart guys, yet perhaps neither actually did play blindfolded.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=1XM9gHWAvX0

Stupidity is a fairly subjective term. Some smart people act stupid now and then, making wrong or less than optimal choices. Maybe chess should be used as a political test to determine if the U.S. Congress or Senate people are stupid and can’t balance the budget. Just give them a chessboard and see what kind of openings, middle and end games they play; is it expert? Chess is a fairly plain material game that is good for anyone’s brain. The earlier one starts and the more they study and play the better they get.

I don’t believe chimps could learn to play chess, yet except for the developmentally disabled or challenged with very low I.Q. most humans can learn to play chess at least at a club level- 1300 or 1400–1800 rating- given enough time.

Many adults don’t want to put that much time into it for good reasons involving opportunity cost (they could be doing something else). Chess is a good cheap way to exercise the brain. Lots of chess instruction videos at youtube.

Signs of Canadian Collapse?

The OP is ‘Is Canada going to collapse?’. IMO definitely yes. It is like a souffle that was over inflated, or a puff ball that has served its purpose. Actually though, nation’s don’t often just collapse. Though Canada has lost much ice in recent winters. Consider some of the problems nations have had, such as Argentina that once (thrice?) defaulted on it’s debts, and didn’t collapse*. Canada will probably struggle through lean years with global warming on the left and right at least until the great American mid-western desert expands into Alberta and Saskatchewan. That may occur within two-hundred years, possibly.

Canada is a name that is mysterious to a few; from whence did the name arise? There is an island in the Mediterranean Sea named ‘Tenados’ near Turkey, and that is also one of the names of Mt. McKinley/Denali. The Mediterranean island is within a thousand miles of the volcanic island that erupted destroying the Minoan civilization about 1500 b.c., so there is a good chance that when Canada collapses like that ancient volcano after erupting, some will have learned where the name came from in the first place.

When maple syrup is rationed, then you will know the time is near.

*https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/argentinas-default-case-offers-clarity-on-sovereign-debt/2014/07/31/84840d90-18ec-11e4-9349-84d4a85be981_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.bf0d3ad6db39

On the Question- Could All U.S. Gangs Together Beat the Military

People ask the strangest questions. I answered this one on the topic of could all U.S. gangs if unified beat the U.S. military.

Gangs are criminal social organizations. How one defines gang makes a difference in calculating their ability to war upon the United States. Covert gangs, ad hoc gangs- perhaps utilizing computer and Internet communications and methods to shut down U.S. and military infrastructure dependent upon on-line works, might make a dent in the U.S. military fighting capability.

The army and marines have just a couple million people or less. I am not sure if one should count the air force if their planes are down from some bug (they can’t shoot a rifle accurately, generally). Asymmeric war with the element of surprise can be effective. It isn’t numbers so much as knowledge and an effective cadre- perhaps armed with biological weapons, that would make a difference.

It may be that mass production with computer aided implementation could enable criminal gangs or even individuals able to suddenly wreak harm or havoc. That is something of an historical change. It would be the most secure powerful and financially enabled people with the best ability to scalar field upgrade some material attack. They could form a criminal gang for-themselves.

The communication thing is a problem in organizing large numbers of gangs. It isn’t like organizing a large football team; as soon as the government learned of such efforts for sedition or treason they would interdict with arrests and whatever was required to maintain the security of the state and low taxes on the most rich. Gangs might develop radiation guided drone weapons to hunt naval vessels with nuclear reactor power. They could cut off the gas supply for the military and maybe find a way to set the national oil reserve on fire in the salt domes while demolishing pipelines and salt water terminals.

Most of the military is trained in conventional war and with conventional weapons. Whereas some kind of a Stephen King trickery could happen and reduce them to zombies or whatever if the opposition force lacks human ethics or moral concerns. Gang members could be force package delivery vectors and be used as disposable carriers of some dire synthetic viral plague. They might have access to the military and around the world bring the terminal bug to the fighting forces.

I believe that criminal gangs are best at victimizing civilians. They aren’t in the conventional land or naval war business generally these days although there used to be pirates with power in various parts of the world. Corporations might have criminal gangs of programmers and technicians to manipulate search engine listings. Criminal gangs might manipulate elections or Wall Street with special algorithms and advertising campaigns to assure that their wealth is concentrated and that democracy does not work. Though Ike warned of the military industrial complex, one sees the vast right-wing budget of today’s military. It concerns some that a criminal gang within the Democrat party might cut the military budget and defeat them through economic privation.

Why the U.S.A. Has a Vast Public Debt

There is an interesting historical comparison; England. To finance the war against the rebel American colonies the British Government piled up a vast debt. It wasn’t repaid for more than a century. The British Government had to pay interest on the debt and had little left over for social sector spending. Vast public debt enslaves the public to tithe the rich. The annual interest on the U.S. national debt is close to a trillion dollars (approximations in this answer).

The military industrial complex gets about a trillion a year. U.S. politics are arranged so they are sufficiently incompetent to require vast military spending. Former Vice President Dick Cheney and others felt the private sector should soak the public sector for all they can. Halliburton got a lot of no-bid contracts during the Iraq War. Government is structured these days to benefit the rich and is corporatist rather than a democracy. It isn’t really going to get better.

Monte Carlo Algorithm and Energetic Modeling (A comment on why chess engines are better)

Computer hardware and software continues to improve. Better programming. The Monte Carlo algorithm works for chess and Wall Street as well as casinos. Algorithms permit all kinds of searches enabling the corporate world to marginalize internet use not of advantage to narrow corporate self-interest.

AlphaGo Zero - How and Why it Works

https://www.cornerstone.com/Publ...

A Monte Carlo Simulation Of The S&P 500 For 2018

What is Monte Carlo Simulation?

I learned about bubble sorts in 1980. Luckily I didn’t continue as a career programmer. So from COBOL, FORTRAN and BASIC I missed out on C C+, Natural and all the rest that has taken over the business world. Programming iterations and algorithms supported by hardware such as INTEL Sunny Lake etc are remarkable.

Comparing Intel Gen 10 to Commodore 64’s or Osborne’s- or even the venerable IBM 360 Mainframe, could make some snicker. Intel Cannon Lake release date, news, and rumors

Top-down structured programming, modules and subroutines- I guess they long ago got rid of goto’s. They are able to find the right move and model various theoretical move constructs to great depth.