While the west Anglo-American imperial collusion is racing ahead at 300 m.p.h to wrap up the Clinton-Major-N.A.T.O. eastward expansion policy with every economic and military measure it can think of to defeat Russian resistance, there has been a paucity of consideration about what a post-Putin Russia would be like. Would it be a Utopia with Democrat Potty style sissified leaders that only war in just wars benevolently upon others as when President Obama intervened in Libya with a ‘kinetic military action’ to end Muammar Muhammad Abu Minyar al-Gaddafi’s ( c. 1942 – 20 October 2011)s regime because he attacked the United States and Britain, because he wasn’t liked or his policy wasn’t liked or whatever?
Game theory can consider various scenarios and outcomes of for many models including political and geographic changes. The Anglo-American team of 1994 that laid the foundation for the return of Cold War and even hot war for Russian reconquista of Ukraine as an alternative to a logical peaceful development inclusive of Russia in a free enterprise pact across Western Eurasia probably didn’t consider things well with game theory modeling. Any rational historian should have known that cutting the heart out of historical Russia by removing Crimea and Ukraine would destabilize western relations with Russia in the future. Politicians would have been better off not letting their greed and lack of political wisdom get the best of them.
Game theory presently might show several possible outcomes for the present sorry state of affairs in Europe and Ukraine. I need rely on dead reckoning because I lack mathematical training in game theory, and have only a philosophical interest in it. It is obvious though that western and especially British and U.S. leaders are throwing everything they can into reinforcing their initial expansion premise that dibbed Ukraine as a sovereign nation that could be filled up with immigrants from the west and maybe eventually added to N.A.T.O. as the basic post-cold war tool for E.U. expansion and hegemony over Russia. Presently former British P.M.s are militating for a new international war crimes tribunal to convict President Putin. Probably the court would be located in a N.A.T.O. country so impartiality could be assured.
Loading up the tray against President Putin and Russian rich people and those that support the present government including sanctions on members of the DUMA is an effort to set up the possible elimination of what is regarded as a conservative Russian government to replace it with a sissified government (I got the word sissified from my spell checker when I used a different word, and remembered that the country name that the Clinton-Blair-Yeltsin team selected for the post-Soviet New Liberal World Order was Community of Independent States or C.I.S. (phonetically pronounced ‘Sis’ although President Yeltsin might have been unaware of the joke in that). In my opinion President Putin is a leader of a democracy with extraordinary Presidential powers given constitutionally to protect against external threats. He has reinforced the Yeltsin written constitution and built up free enterprise structures and constitutional government from the wreckage of the former Soviet Union. Replacing Putin probably will produce leadership to the right rather than the wuss. Replacing the entire government infrastructure might result in the break up of the Russian Federation into numerous smaller nuclear armed powers led by extremists that could accomplish in one move the ditching of sanctions against Russia and a sorting out of politics to let people vote with their feet. That scenario might produce several nations led by extremists and supportive loyalists.
What are the West’s Games Theory Models for Post-Putin Russia
I am briefly considering the outcomes of some sort of Putin defeat because of a successful western outcome in a moderately protracted Ukrainian war. I don’t believe President Putin would surrender to the west or be surrendered for war crimes or have his head parted from his body due to snap-hanging like former Dictator Saddam Hussein. Instead I would guess he might go into retirement at a Dacha with a good location and nice fishing at a lake somewhere while the Russian Federation disintegrated and the chaos of a destabilized Russia set the scene for numerous theoretical new state structures, limited nuclear wars in Eurasia between rogue missile launching personnel etc, possible biological war with the new post-state weaponized designer virus products that any PhD in biology might create in basement lab and a renewal of extremist Muslim terrorism. Great stuff for action-adventure-thriller novel writers incidentally, that could go on for twenty years or so while global warming containment efforts are put on hold indefinitely.
In my opinion such developments are all bad outcomes of the present state of the British-U. S. ‘We are the law and will prosecute you until hell freezes over with everything we have besides nuclear bombs because we don’t want you to vaporize us although you can vaporize yourself if you want’ single minded approach to the issue. I just wonder where the path they have set the world upon leads, and if any of the destinations are as good ones, or all just shitholes.
Of course a unified Russia could remain even if Ukraine sees the retreat of Russian forces. Presumably sanctions would continue on practical Russia for a lengthy period of time and political and financial realignments deleterious to not just Eurasia or especially Russia might follow. The optimal post-Cold war developments have certainly been lost already and were doomed to fail since 1994 perhaps, yet something should be done to develop models for renormalizing Russian-Western relations politically as soon as possible through diplomacy as well as condign measures ans success of the west current tunnel vision.
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