Fifty-year Kondratieff wave cycle modeling should place America at the edge of a depression-yet it could be wrong for many reasons including the trans-national transition of the American economy perhaps forestalling the K wave in the U.S.A. and expanding it to the global perhaps in a 75 year criterion...who can say. Generational change and housing lifespans and many other factors go into the supply and demand for housing. What America needs is good concrete dome housing that have an effective r value of 100 and cost approximately sixty dollars per square (maybe it should be round) foot.
http://www.kwaves.com/kond_overview.htm
The housing construction industry is historically associated with the well being of the economy. When the housing market recedes recession follows. The assumptions about historic roles of housing construction in the economy like the role of low inflation rates may be anachronistic in the shaping adverse world order of trans-nationalism.
http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/BusinessCycles.html table of boom/bust a U.S. century
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/jain/2006/1113.html another boom-bust theory
Can trans-national corporatists just fiddle with the U.S. economy in relation to election cycles in order to maximize profits and corporatist power? Why doesn't WalMart sell solar panels and wind driven electrical power generators or the federal government build monolithic concrete dome homes on military bases?
Foreign investment in the U.S. mortgage market is large, it went from $2.763 trillion in 1992 to $8.144 trillion in 2001. With the dollar becoming shakier and investment elsewhere such as China appearing attractive foreign investors in the U.S. mortgages may be uncertain about continuing the increase. With so many foreign interests involved in America's economic infrastructure it is hard to say how much the next administration could do even if it was willing to change either housing or transportation infrastructure much. Basically no one can expect a serious rectification of macro-economic interdiction procedures from federal leadership.
Between 1997 and 2001 foreign held U.S. equities increased from 1.513 to $2.857 trillion. In recent years foreign investment in the U.S.A. has increased. Trans-nationalism is taking over U.S. political self-determination by influence. Oil profits have allowed Citygroup and other U.S. firms to be purchased by Arab oil interests. The U.S. political leaderships would not change the way 5.5 million homes are built in the country in good years with support for better lot design and zoning to support it nor preference for home power-production or concrete domes for heating-cooling efficiency and longevity-nothing that would make the U.S.A. a safer, better more prosperous nation. Foreign investors have 24% of the total investment in equity in income producing properties in the U.S.A.
Direct foreign in the U.S.A. reached its highest level in history of 335 billion in the year 2000 during President Clinton's final year in office. Though the trend was downward after the 2001 incident it has returned to the increase with 161 billion invested in 2006. Foreign takeover of U.S. businesses is another consequence of trans-national policies by the administration and congress that have accelerated outsourcing of jobs to maximize not American but foreign investors and interests. The cheaper U.S. dollar allows increased foreign purchases of discounted American businesses and properties.
Housing technology and demographic facts could reduce the need to rely on housing expansion at all if environmentalism were more naturally included in the personal dwelling concept. Larger home lots with better landscaping and a small, more efficient and longer lasting home such as a monolithic dome could reduce this major element of the economy to a lower level freeing up more personal capital savings for investment in personal production. Federal unimaginativeness has encouraged over-reliance on rectilinear stick-frame dwellings with minimal green space. The federal government also of course fails to support active personal transportation modification to non-fossil fuel power supply to the nations detriment. Economic cycle can be altered with timely, incremental public sector transitions to new technology infrastructures.
Economic management in one nation has implicitly different assumptions and challenges than in the trans-national or global business paradigm in which economic management entails so far as the United States goes discounting local or regional international economic slumps so well as the U.S. economy is good enough to return trans-nationalists to office. Trans-national corporatist management paradigms may use low inflation goals as a lever to undermine the national economy. It may be a subversive trend because of what is done to accomplish the low inflation rates in the U.S.A., while in China the yuan is over-valued yet the Chinese economy is thriving albeit with pollution and other external costs.
Low inflation and low unemployment rates in America are accomplished not the old fashioned way with honest work, a balanced budget and innovation and intelligent economic management but through the Enron model of transnational ponzi stoked by trade agreements to make it easier for trans-national corporations to relocate and exploit cheap labor, floods of millions of cheap laborers into the U.S.A. and trillions of dollars of cheap imported goods for domestic consumption. The low inflation rate does keep the prices low and products affordable for necessary consumer items yet is also financed with vast federal debt and a consumer spending and no savings policy.
While Americans can afford to live the economy is basically ill-founded and building up foreign rivals in the long range from oil purchases from OPEC to capital investment in new Chinese factories and infrastructure and so forth. In the United States wealthy foreign corporations can purchase housing, energy and mortgage corporations as well as real estate with higher valued currencies while Americans drift toward homelessness and insolvency. The ill-health of American economic management since the 1980's can be measured by the decreasing percentage of Americans that speak English as an internal proletariat from Mexico floods in as Chinese partners to keep the rate of inflation down and trans-nationalism roaring ahead. Sure inflation or higher prices on everything is bad and with the end of the Republican administration in January 2009 it may be a necessary follow up to 100 dollar per barrel oil prices and other 'hidden' inflation economic techniques designed to gouge and degrade U.S. consumers and build trans-national and foreign interests. President Ronald Regan's use of short term Keynesian hybrid supply side economics may have been justified but it transformed into a lever to enrich the richest and outsource the U.S. economic health.
Isolationism and inflation are bad extremes of course, yet so is the rabid transnationalizing
mindless dronary that cares not a whit about prioritizing U.S. intelligence in macro-economic management policy. The United States should be a leading conservationist, energy production, environmental health increase and security role model for the world to follow rather than an amorphous trans-national siphoner of profits for select trans-national corporations. Some large corporate M.B.A. personnel may be simply pimps regarding national human interests looking for just cheap profits and undeserving of trust by the gullible citizens of the United States. The housing industry driven by cheap labor much of which is illegal needs honest money to purchase it and finance it's increase at some point. With the financial related sector of the nation's economy far too high for health it becomes somewhat difficult perhaps to find the rare honest workers to pay the sophisticates not creating anything materially the high prices they need to keep Wall-Street going and able to sell out to Dubai. Heck, it's only oil anyway and goes up in smoke.
Trans-national corporations may be a form of robust ad hoc collectives crushing domestic political opposition in order to increase their own profit naturally enough. Politicians in the United States should be more patriotic and seek to enrich all of the people of the United States, revitalize the environment, secure a no illegal alien ingress fact and balance the federal budget. While trans-national corporations will take care of themselves the federal government should look after the interests of the people of the U.S.A. not through socialism or the opposite of fealty to trans-national corporatism but within a rational realism that does not view Americans as replaceable and downgradable assets or human capital. The nation needs a sound immigration policy of just 350,000 annually from all sources and with a just and unbiased representative selection of the global demographics. They should all be on a course to citizenship over seven years, be given free English language instruction and leave if they choose not to become Americans after seven years.
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