berengia and Illiquidity Risk Models

Illiquidity is a phenomena that occurs when uncertain arises in valuing material trade goods. Since trade goods have risen to include home mortgages as well as commerical buildings and much of everything else since the end of the cold war uncertainty in assigning correct values to articles is a serious risk.

Risk models are what are used by financial forecasters in determing the worthiness of making an investment in anything. Since values have a social relativism implicitly-the value of a widget or an appearance by a celebrity to speak at an event changes from day to day and in relation to the complete complex of compresence of the social trade ensemble of the day, risk modeling must have recursive uncertainty in-itself.

I was reading the new Scientific American (November 2010) and encountered several interresting articles including one upon risk modeling and its 2007-2008 Wall Street crash influence and found a report that the financial trade sector is still a black box-quite non-transparent. It is very difficult to speculate about what sort of business is going on. I believe about 44 trillion dollars of cash transaction occur on Earth each day however-so ran a blurb I read elesewhere. Obviously concatenated crashes are an implicit element of the modern global economy.

Ideally modern economies would revise away from the drift into dialectical transactions politically enabled by the computer communications era that seem to lead toward global concentration of wealth and power-with local manifestations of left-right politics acting as thesis-counterthesis engines to advances toward the Utopia of absolute power envisioned by meglomaniacs historically. Reforming capitalism seems tobe an impossibility though. Limiting the size of corproations to intermediate with just 10,000 employees, limiting the number of corproations anyone could buy into at three, recovering nationalism as a way for politically appropriate environmental and political recovery and management; even full employment as a cultural goal needs to be made a pragmatic cultural affair if the computerized impersonalization of the global totalization of economics is to be brokken up and firewalls installed.

Risk management's failures at systems analysis comprehensiveness was mentioned as an essential fault of the practice of mathematical modeling. If it is better to use volcanic magma flows to dike ut both sides of the Bering Sea in order to pump out the trapped water and restore the lost semi-continent of Berengia that once linked Siberia and Alaska to cool down Actic Ocean and reduce global warming it would not be a project the present political economy could contemplate in the U.S.A. Neither could it conserve the health of the Arctic Ocean, develop desalinized water producing saltwater evaporation-condensation canals in Texas to produce irrigation water or reverse the exemption to the Clean Water Act allowing fracking that was passed into law in 2004.

Risk management today is set poltiically to assure that only the present way of doing things and kicking back to the global network is reinforced. If modern urban skyscrapers are implicitly flimsy building at risk of reduction by military assault, no political capacity would exist to build reinforced hollow mountain ranges for society to live within instead-actually nothing that would reform the existing economic and social structure significantly and for the good seems possible.

Risk management principles applied to global warming would seem to indicate that the risk of failing to reform outweighs the harm risked economically by moving to new social-economic construction priorities. Logical risk assessment seems mostly trusted when the criteria are those necessary to produce chocolate cake.