Modern civil war may
end when one side or the others delivers a knock out punch or alternatively
when rebel forces burn out. If international forces support rebels an end may
occur when they stop supporting the rebels. If international forces
for-themselves have too many dead boots on the ground a political settlement
can be a band-aid for retreat from the civil war to friendlier climes.
In the case of the
Syrian civil war a realpolitik political settlement logic could be construction
of a new synthetic state uniting Syria with Iraq called Syraq.
Syria's were drawn up
in 1923 after Britain defeated the Turkish Ottoman Empire in the First World
War along with Germany giving the French control of the newly delimited state.
Over the next few decades strife often reached the region and the French lost
control granting independence to Syria on the way. Hafez
Assad led the first Alawite government starting in 1970. Modern Syrian history
is as interesting as the history of modern Iraq- wars and strife, repression
and survival epics, espionage, intrigue and pathos. Even the inventor of
Baathism was from Syria.
Today a political
settlement of the Syrian civil war imposed by rich, powerful global martinets
giving power to Sunni rebels would mean the right of a majority to purge
minority tribes and sects is supported by elites. It is improbable that a
western-style democratic pluralism would follow a Sunni takeover of Syria.
Sunni Syria probably would not usher an Age of Aquarius and democracy as
ostensibly some non-Syrian interventionists may believe.
The Sunni of the Middle
East are intolerant of Shi'a mosques. None for instance are in Palestine, Egypt
or Saudi Arabia. Christians are attacked in Iraq and Egypt. Saudi Arabia does
not allow Protestant Churches in Mecca, tourism in the kingdom is broadly
suppressed, twerking occurs only in private-it's not Boston, San Francisco or
Washington D.C.. The U.S. administration does little to condemn the Saudis for
religious bigotry or hate speech toward Christians.
A better political
settlement could be to join Syria onto Iraq. A new Kurdish state would be made
in the midst of the new nation so it would end up being a three-state
federation. Protecting the rights of minorities in Syria means dividing Syria
into thirds with Kurds taking a third, Alawites, Shi'a and Druze sharing a
third and non-Kurdish Sunnis taking a third. Each state would have a governor
and very interesting parliamentary meetings in Baghdad-the future capitol of
Syraq I would guess. The political parties of the new nation would be in a
rough balance that might help stabilize Iraq as well as Syria.
It is unreasonable for
the Obama administration to regard Syria as a nation of immigrants that can
just vote for a democratic government if President Bashir Assad the Alawite
strong man is removed. Ethnic group and religious groups mean more to people of
that region than in modern America. They have fought as tribes for thousands of
years to survive. They tend to bump out and displace rival tribes rather than
to tolerate and regard them as equal citizens of a geographic area called a
nation.
Syraq would be
something of a political experiment that might work. Syraq is a potential
emergent synthesis that could start a new contemporary history of democracy in
the Middle East. Yet we see a lack of creative political thought in U.S.
administrations since the Reagan era. King Cove Alaska for example needs an
environment-trashing road built 13 miles through a wildlife refuge so people
can get to an all-weather airport off the island. Wildlife needs to be
protected from human predation. The better solution would be construction of a
sealed people pipeline for an electric shuttle vehicle that would let people
travel through without an ability to harm the wildlife. Because nothing like
that is usually done its not on the Department of the Interior's easy solutions
page. Nothing so far has been mentioned by State so far about Syraq either.
Syraq isn't on their easy solutions page.
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