A Secular Syria and Other Fantasy Sports Plans

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said that the United States and Russia share the same goal of transitioning to a secular Syrian state that is stable. Some would like to have the Moon made into green cheese, and that may be equally likely. The administration should take a look ahead and imagine a post-Alawite, Sunni Syrian state.

The fundamental orientation of Middle Eastern states is that of sectarianism. Sunni states do not tolerate Shi'a mosques and vice versa. Muslims do not tolerate Jews except if absolutely necessary, and few tolerate Christians except as an oppressed minority. The best prospects for a secular Middle Eastern state was that of Saddam Hussein's Iraq. The inventor of Baathist secular socialist politics was from Syria. Re-establishing a Syrian socialist party with no religion too may be an Obama administration goal, yet it seems completely daft or disingenuous.

No one in the U.S. administration seems able to comprehend that removing the Assad and Alawite government from Syria-perhaps in order to liberate 140 billion dollars in gold bullion the Assad Government is rumored to have-will result in the purge of all sects besides the winning Sunni, and that won't promote stability. Once the Alawi and Christians are purged from Syria by U.S. design or malevolent negligence it would be impossible for them to lead any kind of return to power. The effective real Von Kerry plan is a permanent transition to a new Sunni state in Syria and that won't be at all stabilizing.

Instead the most likely outcome is for a steady transition to a right, conservative fundamentalist Sunni government that seeks overthrow of Saudi, Jordanian and Gulf States royal government. It would also pressure Turkey to become more fundamentalist and end its pro-western tilt. A secular Sunni Syria would need a western puppet military dictator to exist at all other than a Baathy socialist dictator of a cruel disposition.

Turkey 's leadership generally has favored westernism since the defeat of the Ottoman Empire when the young turks saw the writing on the wall of the future. A Christian, white Europe with a better military and technology was a better direction than affiliation with backward Muslim powers. That situation is changing though. It ought to be recalled that western leaning military leadeship in non-royal Sunni states is the primary reason why Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey are not led by clerics. I will not include Asian muslim nations in that paradigm, though they purge minorities too.

The Obama administration support for the Syrian civil war has stimulated a flood of Muslim migrants to a more godless, atheist and secularist Europe while the fortunes of Muslim states including Iran and Palestine is rising. Turkish fundamentalist may feel the pressure and opportunity to terminate secular leadership in turkey in the years ahead-especially in a decade or two when Iran resumes producing nuclear weapons components and a populist Shi'a fundamentalist clergy remains highly influential politically.

A post-Assad Syrian government will be implicitly unstable except as it is dominated by one power. Since the Allenby-Balfour era the former tribalism within an Ottoman Empire that had kept a state of peace generally existing has not existed. The nation-states created by the British at the end of the first world war that excluded the Kurds from having a homeland in the Middle East have been often in conflict within and without, and several times protagonists have been involved in conflict with Israel. Tribal and ethnic collective associations remained the basic foundation of every Middle Eastern state; the Lennonist dream of doped atheist citizens in godless prosperity mindlessly glowing under Imperial rule remains nothing more than a slithering p.r. dream for the Obama administration and Sect. Kerry that cannot be fulfilled by arming thousands of rebels to subvert the lawful Syrian government. Not even a U.S. army under a homosexual Sect. of the Army could inspire Sunni militants to move farther toward the west. Recruiting of youth with 'Gay Uncle Sam Wants You' might not work in the Muslim world well, though it inspires those of Boston..

If the Syrian government is finally deposed the most likely aftermath would include Sunni leadership transition to cali0hate militancy and war upon Lebanon to drive the Shi'a out. Christians might be viewed as foes of Hezballah as well as ISIS and AL Qaeda of Syria that would perhaps have the same relation to the Next Syrian government as Hezballah does to Iran.

A protracted Lebanese civil war that would establish a Sunni majority and send Hezballah packing would permit a caliphate state from Lebanon to northern Iraq and even Turkey. Yet it would include Palestinian territories and Jordan as well in addition to Saudi Arabia.

Obviously Iran could act to interdict Sunni expansionism yet that would also fail to produce more than protracted conflicts that the United States could not end nor rationally take sides on, though some in Congress and perhaps in the White House would agitate bombing Middle Eastern targets for peace.

In some respects U.S. politics have evolved to be a fantasy league with bureaucrats versus the Uber Rich. Neither side regards the public as more than fantasy leagues players that should be manipulated to serve class victories. Foreign policy has fallen prey to the fantasy league too.

The most economical way to end the conflict sending Syrian refugees to Europe is to fund development of an international refugee state-perhaps in South Sudan-where the existing Sudanese could be given permanent native corporations and compensation while immigrant refugees provide security and economic development, and second to reinforce the Assad Government and simple back the ISIS clan out of Syria. Any extra land that international elements do not want to remain in Syrian control should be given to Kurds to form a Kurdish State. I had not mentioned that the Next Syrian Government of conservative Sunni terrorists will probably in time purge the Kurds from Turkey and Syria as anti-state elements, and that wouldn't be beneficial to American interests either.