I
got the crash in oil prices forecast about a half a year before the
drop considering the effect of all that fracking. So it is rather
simply to predict that oil price per barrel won't recover to former
levels at all with Saudi Arabia, Iran, the Baku oil fields and every
place on Earth with running down oil reserves able to frack and
recover former reserves available quantities if they wish (going on
the American experience). That would include Mexico and Pemex and
African nations too.
http://stream.marketwatch.com/story/markets/SS-4-4/SS-4-107267/
Thus
oil price may be effected more by the design of oil companies and
governments to increase the cost for revenue streams. Even so the
steady increase in alternative electronic-solar and super-conductor
technologies will offset short-term oil price increases through war
and other supply disruptions. If global warming continues to affect
shoreline economies and actually increases pace public opinion may
decrease the value of oil per barrel too as alternative
transportation is sought that is renewable and non-polluting
thermally such as electric platforms covered with very efficient
solar voltaic materials.
In
present dollars I would think that oil should range from 10 to 60
dollars per barrel for the next half century. There is a lot of oil
to recover, while engines are increasing in efficiency, alternative
power supplies also, and public opinion about the effect fossil fuels
have on the environment will balance out the increased yet untenable
demand from second and third world consumers for gas-guzzling ground
transportation.
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