Israel's Anti-Nuclear Attack and the Global Nuclear Strategy Balance

 While the Ukraine war may be evolving toward and end in the next three months Israel’s attack on Iran in the campaign to destroy Iran’s nuclear development program has changed global strategic nuclear war strategies and made the mad balance of nuclear weapons restraint a little more precarious.

Israel had little choice about trying to destroy Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities located in secure industrial bunkers more than 90 meters underground. The U.S.A. has such bunker busting bombs and probably has given Israel a few to attack Iran’s nuclear development sites with. There was a 2.5 Richter scale earthquake at one of them yesterday.

There was talk about using small nuclear weapons to bust up very deep underground bunkers that couldn’t be reached with conventional explosives. I don’t know off-hand if such weapons were made- perhaps an improvised tactical nuclear weapon was adapted for the mission. I think it probably won’t be used this round even so.

Pakistan has said it will nuke Israel if Israel nukes Iran. It is good to know that quasi ally has finally put it’s true cards on the table- it is ultimately an enemy of Israel. If there is a Pakistan nuclear war someday, or one involving India vs China and Pakistan, it is helpful to know that Israel might need to intervene on India’s side in order to preempt the attack on Israel as an opportunistic and incidental shot in the major regional nuclear conflict.

Where is Russia in all of this? Russia is winning in Ukraine of course. It upgraded Iran’s Shahid drones to a better Russian enhanced version. While the U.S. may send a stealth bomber to drop bunker busters on Iran or not, Russia will not want to intervene on Iran’s behalf to help its ally much and invoke a wider conflict that would expand the Iran ward into a World War Three situation unifying Ukraine-Iran-Pakistan, India and China in a broad conflict front that would obviously swiftly bring Europe, the U.S.A. and the rest of the world into a complex nuclear exchange.

Russia has no interest in Iran possessing a nuclear weapon and could have sold it some if it did. Neither does China or even Pakistan with its antipathetic Sunni sectarianism vs the Iranian Shi’a especially desire to have Iran join it as a nuclear weapons owning state. No one really wants Iran to have nuclear weapons beside select Iranians. The west believes Iran with nuclear weapons would use them on Israel.

China wants to de frappe western encroachment as it exerts its economic and military regional muscles. It may feel that it is globally strong enough to become the world’s major economic power, yet it also has pragmatists who realize the conditionality of modern economies that exist in a precarious global position of shared and extended networking interacting with all of the world’s resources and trading exchanges. China does not actually need Taiwan for anything except friendly trade without becoming any sort of military base for hypothetical western attacks in the heartland. Taiwan is China’s Cuba. So long as nuclear weapons aren’t brought to Taiwan as Khrushchev once sought to do in Cuba, China can live peacefully and profitable with Taiwan as an independent yet Canada close to the U.S.A. trading partner.

https://suno.com/s/RHV8nSMPP9azhOnJ

Fundamentally nothing much has changed in the global strategic nuclear balance. The major players still need friendly global trade and want to eschew nuclear conflicts that bring everything down. Russia wants it’s western frontage on Europe to be safe and to resume normal trade relations without sanctions. The United State should want full normalized trade with Russia and an end to the Ukraine war that is lasting. That needs to happen within 3 or 4 months. To continue the war much farther will tend to make Russian territorial gains somewhat counter-productive for various reasons as the tactical window of its present method of battle operations on a conventional tensor is likely to close with latent development of counter-methodologies arising below the surface.

Russian reconquest of its Ukraine lands will stop with recover of the majority of Ukraine land east of the Dnepr River. President Trump will end sanctions and China and Russia will assist Iran in rebuilding it’s damaged infrastructure. The U.S., Russia and China will tend to be old frenemies from W.W. II loosely pursuing profitable trade and reduced nuclear tensions while certain second tier nuclear armed states and aspiring ones will rattle sabers; even ones made of wood.