Approximately near Poland's eastern border, the 23rd longitude east is a good, non-threatening demarcator for troops from countries once commanded by Napoleon and Hitler. If Merz and Macron would keep their military forces well away from that line or passing beyond the Carpathian mountains Russia should be far less threatened by Western military encroachment. Ukraine is on the Russian side of the Carpathians and is called the borderlands historically, for good reason.
It is disquieting to have the return of militarism with France and Germany after the end of the Cold War. Macron is something like Napoleon and Merz more than a little like Adolph Hitler, yet of course without a semblance of charisma. One might wish they were not aggressive and assertive regarding Ukraine, as they are, as if it is a play-ground for the west and a field testing lab for western military weapons.
I need stipulate that Ukraine is nothing like Formosa/Taiwan strategically. The Communist Chinese might like that island nation with a history of independence to be theirs, yet like the Falkland Island in relation to Argentina, it isn't like to happen except through a slow evolution as China and Taiwan have peaceful and prosperous futures working together. Unification is a possibility though not a necessity.
Alternatively Taiwan is well defended and has good allies. mainland communists are not likely to attempt a military takeover because they would lose Shanghai and Beijing in the process most likely. A major war would perhaps bring half a billion Chinese to the brink of starvation within a couple of months as on-time deliveries of production fail. China has far more to lose than it has to gain with war against a well defended island with strong allies.
Ukraine on the other hand was historically part of Russia and the Soviet Union occupying Russia for hundreds of years, usually, except for a brief interregnum of Germany taking it over. German militarism is always a latent, recrudescent possibility- as is that of France, when they believe the time is opportune. Because President Trump isn't assertive enough publicly in his quest for peace, and not strong or eloquent enough to speak publicly about the proper role of N.A.T.O. with American support in defending Europe, delusional fears about Russia posing a threat to Europe have been present since the Obama administration.
The Cold War 35 years ago yet there were some that continued to fear the Soviets and Russia and sought expansion and takeover of the power vacuum vacated by the Soviets. Russia obviously would rise in time after reorganization of government and economics from a communist to a free enterprise basis. It would reasonably expect to emerge as the former Russia with most of it's possessions intact- including Ukraine. It did not expect to retake places occupied by the Soviet Red Army during the final years of the Second World War and made part of the East Bloc Warsaw Pact.
The West and the United States are quite well able to defend Europe from a non-existent threat of a Russian assault. It is challenging to envision Russian marine skydivers parachuting from 15,000 feet in numbers sufficient to capture England, or to imagine Russian commandos storming over the Alps any time soon with the skill of General Suvorov in escaping Western forces going over the Alps. It is true that Russians are capable of hitting Poland if the poles were asleep and fearful enough to stay deep in bunkers hoping passing Russian tankers would not notice them yet that seems improbable. Jews at least would put up stiff resistance as they did to the Nazis in the Warsaw ghetto during W.W. 2.
Russian knows that a general war would follow an invasion of Western Europe and that their casualties might exceed those the Nazis inflicted during world war 2- perhaps 20 to 40 million dead, with devastated cities, and the west is aware that nukes might be involved and more than a billion people globally would perish from famine and pestilence such as can exist in a mass produced, interlocked global economic sphere. Russians are not really as stupid as Europeans seem to believe they are. The problem exists in European imagination and the wish to have military power over Russia via Ukraine. It is a major stumbling block for the European leadership psyche apparently. Without European and American support Ukraine would already have returned to being Russian.
It is time now for at least President Trump to be realistic knowing that Europeans and the puppet President of Ukraine Zelensky aren't. Just say know to war and accept the fact that peace is better. The west need trust and welcome Russia fully into the global economy. One day it could be a full part of a tax free American-European-Russian trading block.
