President Trump fresh off a peace victory with Iran (Iran may have signed off on an end to the war that accomplished President Trump’s two primary goals of stopping Iran’s nuclear weapons development and reopening the Strait of Hormuz) was at the G-T meeting in Switzerland and seemed to indicate a reimposition of sanctions on Russian oil and some additional support for Europe’s pro-war position on the conflict with Russia. Ukraine was offered a path to join the EU and it seems that the west has plans to make Ukraine a part of N.A.T.O. President Trump like prior leaders of the U.S.A. may see the gleam in being on a winning side and may provide nominal support.
The golden apple in the eye of Western leaders with Ukraine part of the EU and N.A.T.O. and Russia a dwindled rump state of its present size is somewhat utopian. Just before the Utopia is in their grasp I tend to believe Russia would upgrade the war to a nuclear one with Europe in ashes and the United States surviving as a neutral in the nuclear upgrade while Russia loses a few cities to British and French nukes. If the exchange is fewer than 50 it is possible that nuclear winter may not develop and the world civilization may wobble along- somewhat reduced in glory.
Utopian European expansion with hegemony on Russia does obviously present a losing hand for the United States economically in several dimensions. First and foremost is the loss of Russian economic opportunities for the U.S.A. and to some extent, those of BRIC nations too. Europe will have a decade of economic negotiations with Russia post-war in the Utopian scenario with the United States being a distant outsider looking on. President Trump probably could end the war in a few weeks if he were to end all sanctions on Russia.
The west seems somewhat swollen and confident its satellite, chip and AI advantages will allow a pervasive penetration of Russian air defense, the balance of the year and destruction of Russia's military/industrial/oil infrastructure with conventional weapons like drones and cruise missiles. The problem with that paradigm is that it does trust that Russia will not have sufficient help from China or Korea to sustain a conventional military engagement for another year, much less retaliate with conventional weapons attacks on EUrope for supplying weapons tech and intelligence to Ukraine. If N.A.T.O. were to respond collectively to a conventional air assault on select European targets in member states that would itself prompt a tactical nuclear war in Europe that Russia would win unless the United States got involved dusting off the mutually assured destruction policy in the bargain. Maybe there are secret weapons that would render the conflict null, yet there may be too many secret weapons in east and west to accurately predict the outcome of a U.S.-Russian war.
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